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@ Indiana (1-poss off/def sub adj in parantheses):
Costello -3 (+2)
Nix -4 (-2)
The bigs played great and put on a show offensively, but it's pretty plain to see that the bigger lineup struggled on defense and with turnovers. Too many times Appling or Trice + Harris were stuck on islands out there with the ball. I wonder if we could have held on to an extra possession and made an extra stop with a little more time with Valentine at the 3, and i gotta think Izzo will make that adjustment for next time. Or maybe just pre-adjust for scUM too, where it's going to be a similar issue.
No extras or totals...busy time now. I'll try to get some per minute and significant numbers in after the Illinois game. Go green.
The bigger lineup struggled on defense, but out of 18 turnovers, 5 came from Trice, 4 from Appling who only played 19 minutes. Harris had 0. Dawson and Payne 3 each, nix 2.
Best game of the year and we have one guy in the plus column. And I thought he struggled in many facets of the game. Also, the second best player on the floor was a -6? OK.
Appreciate the insight, but I'm always skeptical of this stuff.
Byrd at a 0 is an improvement.
hoke- to alter or manipulate so as to give a deceptively or superficially improved quality or value.
There were a couple sets were IU went zone with Dawson on the wing. That was awful because IU dropped 5 feet off him and clogged up everything. Dawson and Payne get higher off the ground then any tandem I can remember.
Counting Dawson as a big, MSU was -12 with 3 bigs in the game and +7 with 3 guards in the game.
Also, in regards to the turnovers by Appling and Trice, I noticed many were while Dawson was playing the 3. I feel like the defense is really able to pressure our ball handlers when there isn't a third option. Dawson really provides no backcourt help for bringing the ball up or handling in the halfcourt.
we lost by 5, Payne could have scored all 70 points and if he played 40 minutes he'd still be negative 5. looking at one game with plus/minus, specifically a loss doesn't do the stat justice
Perhaps I just need a better understanding of how the stat works. Thanks.
Costello needs to grab Gauna's minutes. In about the minute or two that Gauna played, he looked terrible. When Costello was in, while we didn't see much, IU did hit those two 3's before half but still.
I think in situations where we don't need our bench big to be an offensive option, Costello is the man. As the offense gets better, that's maybe just now more often the case. When we were struggling to score, i understood that Izzo saw more immediate potential from Gauna. Costello was only in for one possession, a defensive possession. I don't think he had anything to do with the one 3-point shot while he was in. He hedged his screen fine and then the ball went elsewhere.
Remember +/- isn't meant to be a total measure of a player's worth. It's one stat, like rebounding, or to/assist ratio etc.
Payne did lots of great stuff. I'm getting to the point where i really think he's a better decision-maker than Nix (definitely way better than Dawson), and i had never thought that could be the case. I have no complaints about Payne. Not sure he was the 2nd best on the floor. That would be 1. Oladipo 2. Harris, and heck probably 3. Ferrel. However, Payne's place at power forward with Dawson at the 3 was problematic like i said, and so he was in the game when a lot of IU points were scored. That's not his "fault". It's just a matchup that i think needs to be changed next time. It's hard to trust Valentine because he's a freshman who makes mistakes, but he does a lot of little things well, and it looks like we guard IU (probably scUM too) better with Valentine at 3. Then we can argue over the distribution of ~85-90 minutes between Dawson/Payne/Nix, since each brings something different to the game. Yesterday they played 98 minutes.
Against Illinois who knows? They're a weird team, very streaky. They can pressure and run, but probably not well enough to make up for how we could overpower them with our 3 bigs.
It's simple, it just measures what the team does when a certain guy is in the game. If the team scores 2 more points than the opponent in the 1 minute that a guy plays, he's +2. If the opponent holds us scoreless, but hit's a 3 pointer in that minute, it's a -3.
Obviously, sometimes guys get exagerrated numbers because someone else on the floor is getting torched, or is hitting a bunch of shots. And for guys that don't play a lot of minutes, it's susceptible to huge swings.
I totally agree with this. The big lineup success has come against slower paced teams and they have struggled against faster paced teams. Against UM, Valentine is going to have to be a defensive factor against their wings.
5 man rotation +/- is way more useful than straight +/-
Are colleges using those stats yet? I would assume so, because they are being used by some very smart NBA teams.
tig ol bitties is my real name. probably banned for something stupid. F t R
I don't argue with that in concept. 5-man and 4-man +/- is more important in the NBA because of the basic subbing pattern of most teams*, but with the way Izzo shuttles guys in and out, individual +/- works for MSU more finely-tuned than it would for most teams. Really under Izzo all players play with everyone fairly equally.
*NBA basic pattern: Starting 5 plays until nearly the end of the 1st quarter, 2nd team comes in until about 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, starting 5 finishes the half.
Izzo basic pattern: one guy checks in at the 17-minute mark for a big. Trice comes in for a guard at about the 15-minute. At about the 13-minute Dawson goes out for Valentine or for the big to come back in, then when Dawson comes back in he's with the OTHER big etc. You only get wholesale subbing and groupings when there's a long period without a stoppage of play.
You could still do the lineup +/-.
Starters with Trice instead of Appling
Starters with Valentine instead of Nix
If you want to do lineup +/-, please do. It would be very time-consuming for me to go BACK through all the numbers to do combinations. Not to mention Trice instead of Appling wouldn't yield a big enough sample to matter, "starters" is constantly in flux, etc. One year i tracked from the start the combination of having Lucas and Lucious on the floor at the same time. That was a good sample size, and it showed that the combination sucked. Nobody cared really, except i think Xwing. This year Buzzer i think has been tracking the numbers for when Dawson-Payne-Nix have been on the floor at the same time. That's been interesting, that combo has had minutes against such different types of competition and in such a limited part of the season that it's not really something you can compare equally, at least so far.
Really i think the best comparison you can make on an Izzo team is individual +/-, once you've adjust for off/def subs and eliminated cupcake teams and garbage minutes. That's what i call "significant +/-" and here's where we're at for the season:
Trice 25 (slightly low based on missing a couple of early games MSU won)
Costello -7 (a little deceiving, based on him seeing most minutes against either garbage teams, which don't count for him, or very strong teams, which does count against him)
Other than slight upward adjustments for Costello and Trice, i'm reasonably comfortable calling that list our MVP list in order. Also i guess you should consider that Dawson has put up big numbers recently, so he's trending up. I guess my real order would be
Harris, Appling, Payne, Nix, Dawson, Valentine, Trice (or switch those two), Costello, Gauna, Byrd.
I'll do up the Significant per-minute numbers after next game, but i have to go through and subtract garbage and cupcake minutes from the season minute totals....later.
Great post and explanation. I really do enjoy the results you tally, especially when you make notation of how it's weighted and trending. I'd never expect you to do it for every game, but I sure as hell do appreciate the fact that you do.
Thanks again, great work.
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