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@ OSU (off/def 1-poss. sub adj.):
Nix 1 (-1)
Dawson -10 (+1)
Dawson = halfcourt black hole. If only we were playing "tips".
Nix -5 when he's playing for more than 7 minutes at a time. +6 on shorter stretches. This has happened other games too. Payne has gotten way better at playing for longer, but Nix still needs his breaks. Appling has been beaten to his left off the dribble by several guys this year. Million to one that Craft saw that on tape this week. The freshman guards keep answering the bell. Trice looked like he was on some sort of personal mission, which was half good half bad. Payne of course did a great job, no matter his number. He was hurt by being in for the whole OSU early 2nd half run, and i have a hard time seeing what much he could have done about it.
In the end, OSU adjusted to us well, just like IU did. We're a good team, but it's not like we have a lot of offensive versatility. What will Belein and Ryan have planned?
Big Game Season Totals:
Trice -23 (missed several of our big game wins)
It's hard to explain why, but good stuff happens pretty much every time Valentine is on the floor. He makes plays. And I think we're gonna miss Nix a lot more than people want to admit. He draws so much attention and double teams and that opens things up for everyone else
I don't think Craft going right was film related, more that he can't control more than 2 dribbles in a row with his left. Piss poor scouting on our part.
Thanks for this- I always value your analysis.
I thought, among other things, that Nix was too unselfish during a few possessions. He got to the rim a few times only to kick it out to an open shooter. Love the teamwork, but would prefer him to have been a little more aggressive at the rim.
Appling is struggling, and it's compounded by him having to play so many minutes.
The haves and have-nots in the playing rotation keep separating from themselves. Despite Appling's poor last couple games, its still clear that an Appling-Harris-Valentine-Payne-Nix lineup has been MSU's most successful for pretty much the entire season. Here is my favorite chart that I have been tracking regarding MSU going big or going small. For the Big Ten games plus the four biggest OOC games, the big lineup is now an even zero on the season, and the small lineup is +83. The big lineup has been outscored in 7 of the last 9 games.
Appling is a great player, he's just being worn down. Maybe the week break will help.
I agree. Once he gets going, look out.
Keep in mind that +/- doesn't just reflect what a player does right, it sort of shows what they do right compared to what's being asked OF them. If you have 4 great offensive stars on the floor, the 5th guy isn't asked to do as much besides keep the ball moving to the next guy. If he does that well, he gets a good +/-. Right now Appling is being asked to do a lot. His freshman +/- was similar to how he's doing this year, but back then he wasn't being asked to do nearly as much. I'd still pick him, at this moment, as the best player on the team, but his numbers are down relative to how much responsibility he has.
Really i can't wait until down the line (assuming no early NBA jump) to see how Harris does when he's asked to do more. And Payne next year, same thing. We'll miss Nix like crazy, unless Payne steps up and is able to add to his responsibilities, without taking the step back in production that Appling has somewhat.
You can blame Dawson. You can blame Appling. This loss was on the coaching staff. No idea where they got the idea to pressure Craft like that, but the fact that they didn't adjust at any point in the game was atrocious.
I don't disagree, but +/- doesn't work for coaches. Though if you really want it, Izzo's Big Game +/- this season is +8. MSU has been +8 with him coaching, and 0 with him not coaching. If he ever gets ejected, it could get interesting...
I read this chart as "Valentine is more effective than Dawson."
At the '3' that is definitely true. However Dawson has been pretty effective when playing the '4.' His skills are just more suited for the interior at this point. It's the combination of playing the three of them (Nix, Payne, Dawson) together that has often been the most problematic lineup.
Seems if this were the case, Payne's and Nix's numbers would be more significantly below Valentine's number, since when Dawson is at the 4, Valentine is in the game and one of the bigs is out of the game.
Per minute, Valentine is ahead of Nix and on par with Payne in my sample of games. Also, if it weren't true, Dawson would be at zero or negative overall, since we are zero overall with the big lineup. He's actually a +15 overall in that sample of games, which since we don't go a "big lineup" with anybody but Dawson at the 3, can be easily deducted that his entire +15 is at the '4.'
This post was edited by Buzzer Beater 14 months ago
Which games are in your sample?
the ones in the chart. All Big Ten games, UConn, KU, Mia, Tex
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