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Valentine 16 (3 good games in a row. I'm saying he's out of his slump now.)
Appling 9 (Good foul control while staying aggressive in heavy minutes.)
Nix 9 (Missed him those first 10 minutes. Also really missed him as he ran out of gas at the end.)
Byrd -4 (per minute, and considering the circumstances, he did ok. He looked relatively comfortable in the 2nd half he knew he was the ONLY option left.)
Dawson -10 (total regression, but it's his first bad game in awhile, and hey he apologized, so )
Payne and Nix really, i know i don't know better than Izzo, but really should NOT be playing the entire 2nd half. Just put in Gauna or Costello for 2 minutes each, at different times, attached to the tv timeout, and give these guys a break. (E.g. Gauna for Payne from 13:00 to 11:00, Costello for Nix from 9:00 to 7:00, or in games other than last night, slide Dawson down to 4 and give Valentine an extra 4 minutes.) Their production drops off like crazy when they're gassed.
Here's the Significant +/- totals for the season:
In order, it's junior-junior-freshman-freshman-senior-sophomore-sophomore-sophomore-sophomore-freshman. We need more from the sophomore class, and too bad there's not more depth incoming next year, but it looks pretty bright for next season if nobody bolts early.
Here's the Significant +/- Per Minute. There's always some weird numbers from guys who haven't played much significant time yet, but it's February so these stats are starting to take meaningful shape i think:
Here are some comparison numbers for last season. Keep in mind there are tough games ahead, so you can expect everyone's numbers to drop this year by at least a little.
2011/2012 Sig. +/- per minute:
So this year nobody is at the level that Thornton-Payne-Green-Wood were last season. Dawson has dropped off a lot, as way more is now asked of him and he doesn't have those other 4 to lean on. To a lesser degree, same with Nix. Appling and Trice holding steady, which on this team really means they've taken a big step up, especially Appling. And also maybe NOT so insignificant is that Gauna is miles better this year, and Byrd is also doing better, though that's only thanks to his play in November, the first week of December, and a decent 2nd half last night.
This post was edited by mark_v 17 months ago
Counting Dawson as a big, MSU was -7 with 3 bigs in the game and +12 with 3 guards in the game. That has been the case most of the year. Dawson's best production has been at the 4. Your stats pretty much prove it out. MSU's best lineup has been Appling, Harris, Valentine, Payne, Nix.
Yet that's one starting lineup we've never seen. I wonder if Dawson would handle being 6th man.
Of course, the stats are for the whole season so far. If you go based on the past 3 weeks, Dawson was really picking up and making it a solid top 6 players.
Don't want Valentine starting. He crumbles in road games.
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Not sure I agree with this. He was the best player at Minnesota. He was one of the best players at Miami. He did struggle at Wisconsin. Bottom line is that he plays the 3 better than Dawson does. Other than against Wisconsin and the second half against PSU (two slow plodding teams - no coincidence) all of Dawson's best minutes have been at the 4.
Next game will be very interesting. The first game against Minnesota was horrible for Dawson and Nix, while Valentine and Payne did fine. If everyone is playing, would Izzo consider not starting Dawson or Nix, and keeping their minutes down around 25, while starting Valentine and keeping Payne's higher minutes?
I think if i were coaching it i'd stick with the big starting lineup, try to impose our will, and also for continuity and not pissing off Dawson. No doubt though it would be a short leash, and i'd have Valentine at the scorer's table at about the 18 or 17-minute mark, and i'd use only 2 of the bigs for the majority of the game. We can't be pressured into a zillion turnovers and play another game from behind the whole time.
Are we going to be brutal in 14-15' if we don't get some ridiculously good frosh? I just can't imagine this team without appling Payne and probably 1 of Dawson and Harris leaving if not both. Seems like the 13' class is really going to hurt down the road.
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