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In looking at some stats of MSU teams going back to the 97-98 season, the current team currently ranks as Izzo's best ever at 0.883 defensive points per possession allowed. Offensively however, at 1.043 points per possession, it is only ranked 14th out of 16. However the difference between offensive and defensive of 0.160 points per possession puts it 6th in the Izzo era. Note from the chart below that by ranking the past 16 teams in difference between offensive and defensive points per possession, that the top four teams were all Final Four teams and the bottom four teams were all the first round exit teams.
This year's team already is as elite defensively as any team Izzo has had. A slight pickup offensively and this team could be prepared for special results come March.
Very nice chart.
So, a little bit like our football team in that we don't need to up our offense much to really get results.
Looking at offense and defense independantly, defense is clearly more closely correlated to final year end results. This team does need to push up the offensive efficiency to be among the great Spartan teams.
Great stuff, but you have to consider that the previous seasons include ALL games, and this season is still weighted towards the easier non-conference part of the schedule. If the team manages to maintain those numbers the rest of the way, it will be a BIG shock.
This post was edited by MalibuMan 18 months ago
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
True. I almost added that disclaimer. We are 2/3 the way through the regular season though and to be at 0.88 defensive points per possession is remarkable. I would expect the defensive PPP to increase slightly but still end up top 2 or 3 in Izzo era. Offense is tougher to predict, however there has been steady improvement throughout the year even as we went into conference play. Players getting healthy, learning roles, etc. I think the variance could end up being pretty close to where it is now.
Love it. That is some damn good work, Buzzer Beater.
If MSU outscores its next 10 opponents by .16 PPP I'll be floored and thinking National Championship. Currently outscoring Big Ten opponents by .06 PPP.
Next 10 games seem tougher than the first 8, but more are at home so that could help.
Final Four is guaranteed if we get the differential to .190
If we play the next ten games at .06 PPP differential at 65 possessions per game (current conf. avg), the team will end up as the second best defensive PPP team in Izzo's era and .13 differential for the year .
All good points. I still think this team has more room offensively.
Awesome stats, thanks for sharing.
tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.
Surprised the 08-09 team is ranked so low in those stats. I would have expected that to be among the best.
Bring back Rich Rod!
Edit: Math is hard and I am stupid :D
This post was edited by J_LaP 18 months ago
The two games against UNC hurt the stats. That team also lost to Maryland by 18, Purdue by 18, OSU by 15. A couple really bad games in an otherwise great season.
tES, is that you?
Not sure what you are missing here. The stat is simple, it is OPPP - DPPP. A low OPPP and a bad (high) DPPP would put you at the bottom of the rankings.
The 2009 team is ranked 10th out of 16 Izzo teams at 1.078 OPPP. It is ranked 9th out of 16 Izzo teams in DPPP at 0.953. The difference of 0.125 is 10th out of 16.
I'd expect this team to drop quite a bit with the schedule ahead. Looks encouraging right now, but there's a tough road ahead.
Very cool analysis. What are the best websites to get PPP and other in depth stats? Yahoo and BSPN seem to have just the most basic stats in the box score.
+1 to the OP.
Definitely. I expect them to end up somewhere in the .12-.13 range. Considering this is the toughest I've ever seen the B1G, top-to-bottom, I'm not too worried.
Edit: Nevermind, I was misinterpreting what you were saying, that makes sense now.
I didn't feel like doing my own statistical analysis for work just now so I ran some stats on this data instead.
"Correlation" is on a scale of 0 (no correlation) to 1 (very correlated)
First off, there isn't much of a correlation between our offensive years and defensive years (r = 0.09). While our OPPP has a correlation of 0.69, which explains 48% the rankings (going by the OPs rank of the years), the DPPP correlates slightly better at 0.79 which explains 62% of the stats for of our better years. Hence, for MSU, DPPP is a slightly better indicator or our success, but we all know these variables are not completely independent of one another so this was kind of just for fun.
ps. Thanks OP for supplying that data, and it might be interesting if someone normalizes the data to points scored in the B1G each year and NCAA to account for any variation that may occur from year to year.
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by Dark Mantonio 18 months ago
The internal issues really didn't show up until the following season though.
Suton missed most of the non-conference (first UNC game and Maryland) and then when he came back, Raymar was battling the 'mysterious' walking pneumonia.
this is the type of content ESPN needs to be reporting on. Perhaps Erin Andrews can be the one doing the reporting.
I remember the Oregon Trail image posted on the old board: Raymar has dysentery.
Bump for VargMan, my biggest fan.
Updated through UM game. MSU has improved its offense and overall variance with only a slight decrease in defensive efficiency despite the tough schedule the last two weeks. Overall still second only to the National Champ team in defensive efficiency.
OMG! OMG! OMG! OMG!
We are getting so close to a guaranteed Final Four appearance!!
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