MSU Red Cedar Message Board

The largest and most active MSU Spartans board on the web

Boards ▾

MSU Red Cedar Message Board

The largest and most active MSU Spartans board on the web

The Press Box

The place to ask questions to SpartanTailgate's recruiting experts

Duffy Daugherty Forum

"The Duff" is dedicated to Michigan State football recruiting discussion

Jack Breslin Forum

"The Bres" is dedicated to Michigan State basketball recruiting discussion

Wells Hall Off Topic Board

This is your pulpit to preach to the masses about everything from politics to religion

Marketplace & Ticket Exchange

The place to buy, trade or sell Michigan State tickets


Debunking a myth - 3 point shooting under Izzo

  • Here is the breakout by season. Crean was only there for the first two, so not sure he was having much of an impact on these numbers.

  • BINGO....this is my issue..Izzo has never embraced this portion of the game, never adapted to it...he doesn't use it.. he doesn't work onit... he doesn't work on defending it. and it trickles into the inability of this team to hit from the outside in general. He's on record in many season's demoaning about "becoming a girly sissy boy jump shooting team." So he recruits these "athletes" that look awesome in nice team photos but can't hit the broad side of a barn with a laser scope. Makes me sick to see how efficient and smooth Indiana runs their offense.. how if you give them wide open jumpers..THEY NAIL THEM.. instead of brick them like Spartans do year after year after year.Their fast break is under control and they SCORE..and they score on the run with jumpers as well as with lay ups.. Why can't the Spartans? Its the same with Michigan, Duke, ...., hell. most any team you watch on the tube. These teams have real flow to their offenses and they HIT jump shots.. especially when uncontested. Makes me sick to see how the player pieces fit together at Michigan at all their posistions and how effortlessly they hit jumpers out of running their offense. Nobody seems to know what to do on the floor for the Spartans.. playing players all over the place without any idea of who fits where. As a result everything MSU runs looks absolutely strained, difficult, confused, hesistant, jerking, clunky and totally ineffectual.

    Back to the 3 pt issue. I don't care a whit about percentage made for MSU... when you attempt FAR less (not just a little less) than anybody you play you abdicate a lot of scoring to the other team..I don't care what the percentage looks like.; you make 3 of 8 and the other team makes 8 of 18 and you've just handed them 15 extra points from that phase of the game.. you have to score on 8 more two point possessions JUST to make up for that... (And at the rate of turnovers the Spartans commit.. that can take all game).

    This 3 point discrepency is why in many games against decent team we see the Spartans pulling out to double digit leads only to not be able to hang onto them..the "can't seem to keep their boot on the neck of the opponent" syndrome. This happens every year with Izzo's team. Now I admit Izzo's teams shoot a great percentage OVERALL in most games.. but they take so few threes that they lose a lot of scoring potential. This is important because every year you get into games where the other team packs things in the paint making it impossible to move or score from there. When a team is faced with this you HAVE to hit open jumpers, and especially be a threat from the 3 to do that.. in order to cancel the packing effect, make them pay for that, force the D to spread out thereby opening more for your offense.... BUT, frankly, the Spartans suck at doing thist and have sucked at it for quite a while now. Year in Year out the Spartans lose games because this is exactly what they CAN"T do.... hit open jumpers when a team packs it in the paint. What is additionally frustrating is that even when State recruits "a lights out shooter" it seems they never live up to their potential.. not like players from so many other competitive teams.. who all seem to have a consistent sniper on their squad. Instead year after year after year you can point to MSU and write "MSU.. where good shooters go to die.". Its a shame.. seems everybody hits from the outside . 2 and 3s better than the Spartans year after year after year.

    I do not advocate for the Spartans to become one of these insane 3 point maniac teams....but I'd like to see their attempts from the 3 be in the middle of the pack .. to go along with a decent percentage... instead of the yearly bottom or near bottom it always is under Izzo. This one factor costs the Spartans at least 2-3 games every year in teh W/L column and makes most all games against decent, but beatable teams, a struggle.

  • A couple things on this. I will defend Klein, his 41% 3-pt shooting his Jr. year was a big part of Izzo's first B1G championship team. Cleaves was the MVP of that team, but with Mo Pete having the broken hand, etc. Klein was the second most valuable offensive player on the team. He actually had a good shooting career before a senior season slump. Chris Hill was WAY better than advertised for his first three seasons. He was almost an afterthought in the Torbert/Anderson recruiting class. His first three seasons are three of the best 3-pt shooting seasons in school history and a big reason why MSU is high on the list overall. Everybody it due to coaching or something else? I think it's little bit of overhype that happens these days trying to sell recruits. It happened in football this summer with the wide receivers and Maxwell. For every Chapelle and Dahlman there has been an Ager, Granger, Trice that quite frankly shoots better than advertised.

  • Hey buddy I was hoping you would jump into this. Please read all of my posts in here, they address all of your nonsense perfectly. I'll give you the cliff notes:
    - We average only three attempts per game less than the team who takes the most 3's. This is over a full 15 year sample so don't bother looking up one single meaningless game.
    - We shoot better than everybody except 0.2% worse than Indiana who you used in your example as the best shooting team
    - Please link Izzo's "girly sissy" quote I would love to see that one.
    - Please review MSU's points per possession vs. the teams who average a high number of attempts and get back to me about what high volume 3-pt shooting gets you.

    Your complete nonsense that is spewed the day after games is one of the big reasons I did this research.

  • It has gotten Northwestern a LOT farther than they would be otherwise...because they play ZERO defense. If the Wildcats utilized and shot the 3 the way the Spartans did they'd be a last place team on a yearly basis. The 3 is what keeps them in games against teams .. most of whom ..always have better atheletes and players than do the Wildcats.

  • The best part of Dave's post is that Izzo doesn't address the issue of other teams making threes against us. Nonsense.

  • Buzzer Beater,

    Its not that simple. 3 point shooting stats are easily the most skewed bball stat out there... often # of attempts go up, and with a poor shooting percentage to go along with them because, a) a team behind late in the game is left with jacking up 3's left, right and sideways as quickly and as often as possible because that is their only (albeit, slim) chance to get back in the game, b) in obvious mismatches the "little guy" will jack up scores of threes during the game because its their only hope of a chance to stay in the game. What both these things do is make your own teams 3 pt defense and attempts differential look better than they really are.

    So, since you 've done some stats I'd like to see the following. Using only two seasons worth of numbers: last seasons stats and those from the season before, figure this out for me...

    What were the # of 3 pt attempts and 3pt percentage for the Spartans vs. their opponent in games where they played agains Indiana, Purdue, OSU, Wisconsin and Michigan (i.e. the upper division teams).
    Next tally up the +/- points differential between MSU and those opponents for just 3 point shooting in each game.. and align that next to the final score in the game.

    My guess (its only a guess) is that games were lost by MSU because of this differential and in games they won the margin of the win was much less than it would have been otherwise because of this differential. hypothesis.. that the Spartans consistently place themselves at a disadvantage because of a big descrepency in this part of their game compared to their opponents.

    If I'm wrong in this then I'll be the first to admit I am and further admit that whay "seems" to be a problem for the problems is just that... " a perception" not supported by facts.

    This post was edited by Fort Wayne Dave 19 months ago

  • This is a 15-year look at it Dave. Over the course of 15 years every team on this list has plenty of games where they were behind and needed to jack up 3's, even MSU. Remember right smack in the middle of the 15 -year run we went 7 seasons without a conference title (also, oddly enough those were 7 of our best 3-pt shooting teams). We were not winning / way ahead of many of these games. If you want to skew the sample and shorten it to draw your own conclusion, fine, but less data is less reliable. It's clear to me that the "poor 3-pt shooting" it is merely a perception. The numbers support that. My guess is that if you switched allegiances and picked any other team, you would probably start coming to the same conclusion. Any stat whereby you "fail" (i.e. miss more than make) a majority of the time is susceptible to such perceptions.

  • Byrd is slowly moving his way out of the rotation. I don't think I've ever wanted so badly for a player to succeed. But that said, they've been force feeding a guy who's been off all year. Anyone know the % excluding Byrd?

    Don't you hate when you reply to something without reading the whole thread only to find out it has become about something else?

    This post was edited by Dolph Ziggler 19 months ago

  • that is a dumb opinion, really dumb. Just my opinion

  • After last night's game, they are 31.1% overall for the season. They would be 33.6% sans Byrd. Still poor. Byrd, Valentine, and Kearney are all shooting at historically bad percentages.

  • Part of this is due to byrd going 1-6 or something just about every game. Appling and truce are shooting well, Harris is shooting it ok. I don't think our shooting is as poor as the numbers say.

    The first time MSU basketball aired in France the French surrendered to Tom Izzo just to be safe.

  • Yikes.

  • You're preaching to the choir Buzzer Beater about "less data is less reliable" (scientist here). I agree with you in princeble. I was just curious to know what this team's "3 point game" looks like compared ot our opponents when our opponent is one of our key competitors, games "that count", games we need because its important to us vs them for the title, etc. My perception is that we cede points to our opponent in those kinds of games because of a significant difference in the 3 point game,...actually costing us some games and making those that we win a lot closer than they would be if the 3 point line never existed (like in Magic's time). Thats what I'd like to see.. how we stack up against Wisky, OSU, Indiana, etc.... hell.. I'd like to see in each of the last 15 years you have how we stack up in this one aspect of the game against that year's first division teams.

    Again, I'm not advocating for a gatling gun 3 point nonsense team. I 'd just like to see us pull even with our competitors in this aspect.. in other words... cancel this aspect of the game out for us vs. them.. which of course, would mean the outcome of the game would then turn on other aspects......2 pt game, defense, rebounding, free throw shooting, general scheme and turnovers (which can render all other aspects moot and useless). Leave the game up to those other things... you have to like MSU under Izzo's prospects.

    My point is if you can neutralize the 3 pt game differential between MSU and who they play against the "big boys" "good boys" or whatever you want to call them.... thereby leaving the outcome of the game up to the other factors i listed...MSU, with Izzo, wins hands down....., only the turnover factor being a ball and chain on this team under Izzo. Or, put another way, non matter if MSU is having an 18 win or 28 win season, I contend the 3 point game differential,,.. in the games that really count.... hold MSU back from being as good as it can be.

  • I still would like to see the "with Crean" and "without Crean" #s. I definitely remember MSU being a strong 3 point shooting team in the late 90's, early 2000s. I can't honestly recall a strong 3 point shooting MSU team in the last 8 seasons or so, with the exception of 2005.

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

  • Depends, which game did we win?

    I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this.

  • There is a per season chart above. Crean left after the 99 season. We have been a better shooting team since he left.

  • Why are you only using 3 point percentage as the stat to determine if Izzo has had good 3 point shooting teams? The conclusion is ridiculous when his teams have shot fewer 3s than 10 teams in the B10. A good 3 point shooting team should be mainly based on number of made 3s. I'm not saying percentage is a useless stat, but to come to a conclusion based solely on it is absurd. You are basically saying it is as easy for a team to shoot 2 for 3 as it is for them to shoot 6 for 9. It isn't unheard of to have a player shoot 45% from behind the line. It is unheard of to have an entire team shoot 45% from the 3 point line. There is a reason for that.

  • Gob_Bluth

    Are you seriously trying to make the case that Izzo's teams don't work on defending the three? Because the numbers absolutely do not back you up on that.

    tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.

  • Seriously, a scientist? "Princeble"??? I always figured scientists as being the type that graduate from high school, but hey what do i know. I'm just a professor.

    (That, and the random quotation marks disease is getting out of hand...)

    This post was edited by mark_v 19 months ago

  • Einstein didn't graduate from high school. shrug

    signature image
  • Because he skipped it and went straight to the prestigious Polytechnic Institute in Zurich.


    I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this.

  • 2011-12 Season

    3/11/12 - MSU vs. OSU - 68-64 - MSU win
    OSU - 4/17 3FG
    MSU - 9/21 3FG

    MSU +15

    3/4/12 - MSU vs. OSU - 72-70 - OSU win
    OSU - 4/14
    MSU - 5/14

    MSU +3

    2/28/12 - MSU @ IND - 70-55 IND win
    IND - 5/11
    MSU - 5/13


    2/19/12 - MSU @ PUR - 76-62 MSU win
    PUR - 6/22
    MSU - 5/13

    MSU -3

    2/16/12 - MSU vs. WISC - 69-55 MSU win
    WIS - 5/24
    MSU - 2/9

    MSU -9

    2/11/12 - MSU @ OSU - 58-48 MSU win
    OSU - 2/15
    MSU - 4/16

    MSU +6

    2/5/12 - MSU vs. umAA - 64-54 MSU win
    umAA - 7/22
    MSU - 2/10

    MSU -15

    1/21/12 - MSU vs. PUR - 83-58 MSU win
    PUR - 3/20
    MSU - 7/13

    MSU +12

    1/17/12 - MSU @ umAA - 60-59 umAA win
    umAA - 6/21
    MSU - 7/15

    MSU +3

    1/3/12 - MSU @ WISC - 63-60 MSU win
    WISC - 5/22
    MSU - 2/5

    MSU -9

    12/28/11 - MSU vs. IND - 80-65 MSU wins
    IND - 6/17
    MSU - 5/13

    MSU -3

    This post was edited by morgarc 19 months ago

  • 2011-12 Season

    Totals for those teams:

    MSU - 53/142 = .373%
    OPP - 53/205 = .258%

    MSU 8-3 in games against those opponents.

    MSU Wins
    MSU - 36/100 = .360%
    OPP - 38/159 = .239%

    MSU Losses
    MSU - 17/42 = .404%
    OPP - 15/46 = .326%

    Now kindly STFU. Thanks.

  • Well done but Dave is still going to rip Izzo about this issue.