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We allow opponents to shoot 25.8% from three? Izzo clearly doesn't know how to defend the three.
tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.
Buzzer Beater is the Nate Silver of tRCMB.
And before you ask why I didn't do the 2010-11 season.
1) We made more threes than our opponents - 220-215
2) We took more threes - 620-591
3) It was our worst season since 1996-97(last time we missed the NCAAs)
Good stuff, Morgarc. Thanks for adding it to the thread. Myth debunked.
I believe the expression you're looking for is "boom goes the dynamite."
Where did Fort Wayne Dave go? Do the facts refute his "princebles?"
Bump. After starting off the season atrociously behing the arc, MSU is up to 34.6% for the season due to 40.2% shooting in conference games. This is due to Harris and Trice both being healthy, Payne's emergence, as well as Kearney's departure and Byrd's lack of minutes. It's hard to believe, but when its all said and done, this could end up being a better than average (36.4%) Izzo shooting team.
You are only telling a half truth. The point is (yesterday's IU game being an exception) is that regardless of percentages Izzo does NOT utilize the 3 much in his offense at all...if you look at 3 pt attempts per game and total points from 3 by team the Spartans perennially rank near the bottom of the BIG. This wouldn't be so much of a problem if, at the same time, other teams were taking very few shots from the 3 along with State. But, this is rarely the case. This is the problem.. the DIFFERENTIAL in points off threes made by MSU (good pct but very few made) vs MSU's opponents points and makes is usually huge... the couple times I've done the calculation it ranks MSU somewhere in the 300s in the NCAA. Thats the problem I have with the MSU system a little... when you utilize the 3 so little in your game.. when the other team does just the opposite you are abdicating points in droves. This is why we see the characteristic angst here on the board about "MSU can't seem to put teams away when they are down"...eeks out close wins against inferior opponents etc. Case in point.. MSU really outplayed tOSU last week in just about all phases of the game.. but only won by 5 points.. why? because OSU had a 21 point advantage over State all from scoring 3 balls. The Spartans essentially abdicated 21 plus points to tOSU (that the Spartans actually were able to win the game is a prima facia evidence of how much they outplayed osu in the game as a whole)
This is really a shame. Izzo is a master at offensive schemes and when his teams learn them other teams get carved up.. but the team rarely rides this to big wins because State historically takes very few threes in the game whereas the opponent takes (and thus makes) considerably more.
Rank your list in team 3pt shots made.. just the total number for the BIG #1 thru 11... and compare.. I think MSU was dead last or close to it last year. Next...in MSU's games note the opponents 3 pt shots scored. Then make a ratio of MSU # made/Opponents # made. I think you'll find the Spartans are at the bottom of the league.
tOSU game was basically 1 guy that got extremely hot and made 6 of their 10 three pointers. The rest of the team made 4 and shot .285 from 3. Our game plan was to not let anyone else, not named Thomas, hurt us and we did just that and won.
MSU opponents have made .52 more 3 pointers per game and shot 3.2 more 3 pointers per game.
As of right now, our opponents are averaging 1.57 more points per game on made 3's. Not even close to huge, but go ahead and keep telling yourself that.
MSU on average, is scoring 10 more points a game on 2 pointers.
Since 3 point shooting is so important to you, can you please explain why we have have won 3 B1G championships in the last 4 years? Also, did you know that the year that we didn't win the B1G championship was the only year in that 4 year span where we actually made and attempted more 3 pointers than our opponents. Seems like there is a correlation in there somewhere...just can't put my finger on it...
2012-2013 3 point Big 10 Stats
MSU - 45/112 = 40.2%
5.625 made 3PT FGs per game
Opponents - 47/146 = 32.2%
5.875 made 3PT FGs per game
Let me get this straight....you are mad that our defense forces opponents to take more lower % shots?
Now make a list that ranks B10 teams by wins and losses. Check the data going back 4 years. I think you'll find the Spartans are at the top of the league.
3 BT titles in 4 years, and solidly in the running for another one. But let's focus on a perceived statistical weakness (that morgarc basically disproved) and find some way to complain about our HoF coach.
I think 3 pt % is one of those things that causes people to react emotionally during a game when it SEEMS like opponents are draining 3s left and right even if it isn't really true. I know there are lots of MSU games where I think MSU got killed from behind the arc and MSU's opponent couldn't miss, then I'm surprised when I look at the box score and MSU was 4-10 and the opponent was 6-16.
This post was edited by Frank Wrench 18 months ago
Look at last year. Our opponents made 14 more 3 pointers than us. That is 42 points in 37 games or 1.14 more points per game from 3.
On the other hand, we had 223 more 2 pt FGs than our opponents. That is 446 points in 37 games or 12.05 more points per game.
14 less 3 pt makes.
223 MORE 2 pt makes.
this exact thing happened to me yesterday. i was shocked to see indy shot only 8-21 from 3 while we went 11-23. during the game it seemed like every single time one of their white guys took a 3 ball it was predestined to be a swish
"bzzzzzzzzzzz bzbzbzbbzbz" - bees
Thread is amazing....
How do some of you folks find your way home at night???
Nίκη για MSU
This is so true.
This is absolutely true. I've try to drive this point home to FortWayneDave, but he isn't having it. He's completely lost on something that has zero impact.
Here is one more table for my fellow stat geeks out there. The attached shows total points and total possessions for each of the Big Ten teams over the same 15 year sample I used in the OP. MSU is the clear leader at 1.09 PPP. Then I brought in the three point shooting stats and ran a correlation formula. For those unaware, a correlation of +1.0 means two stats are perfectly correlated. I correlation of -1.0 means they are perfectly negatively correlated. A 0.0 means there is absolutely zero correlation.
PPP is somewhat negatively correlated by # of 3 point attemps (-0.41). Meaning that generally, the less threes attempted, the higher a team's points per possession will be.
PPP is not correlated at all to 3-pointers made, even slightly negative. 3-pointers made have no impact.
Finally, PPP is highly correlated (+0.75) to 3-point percentage.
Finally, as you can see by the fact that the teams are sorted in order of PPP, the rankings is essentially exactly the same as the success of the given program over the past 15 years. PPP is absolutely a critical success statistic.
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