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this is the conclusion that I came to yesterday
We've got depth. We've got numbers.
I drafted Brady in the first round this year. I feel dirty.
The top 7 are Foster, Rice, McCoy, CJ2K, and DMC at RB, Rodgers at QB, and Calvin (not necessarily in that order). At 8, I may consider Brees/Brady, but at 7, you are guaranteed one if the other.
And I completely disagree that there is a huge drop off after te first five QBs. Ryan, Eli, and Romo will put up good numbers and usually at least one if them will be around in the 3rd round.
Are we thinking of the same DMC because I wouldn't consider Darren McFadden in the first round and maybe not in the 2nd? Even when healthy, I just don't see him as that much better if at all than Steven Jackson, Murray, or Charles. If your argument is upside based, I'll take Charles who has fewer career carries a higher career YPC, and catches just as many passes.
The top 6 in our league look to be going like this
4 Calvin Johnson
So at 7 it is either Brady or Chris Johnson. Leaning Brady based on our talk here.
"This is the strangest life I've ever known"
Jim Morrison (1943-1971)
The top 3 teams in both my leagues last year were the teams with Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. It's a new era in football and fantasy football as well. QB is the new RB. I have the 14/15 pick tonight and am basically considering myself screwed unless everybody else is stupid enough to pass on Cam Newton.
In our 10 team PPR, the draft started out with: Foster, Rice , Rodgers (my pick), and Calvin went 4th.
I read the news today, oh boy .. ..
About a lucky man who made the grade
No way. If healthy DMC is a top 5 if not top 2 or 3 back. Health is definitely a risk, but at 6 or 7, I take it.
You have to take Brady if he is available. I think in that format he will be the highest point getter. Also, I think he is way safer than Chris Johnson because with Brady you know exactly what you're getting. With Johnson, not so much. I am a big believer in going safe early, risky late.
Just for reference, the five highest scoring fantasy players last year under ESPN standard scoring (with 4 for passing td's) were all QB's. The gap between Stafford and Eli was 60 points (add another 24 point gain under the 6 vs 4 rule) and you have an 84 point difference between the two under your scoring system. The difference between the 1st and 6th running backs last year was 80 points.
So you'd take him in front of Matt Forte who actually stays healthy or Jamaal Charles who has been better than McFadden when both are healthy? McFadden has had 1 year where he's even hit 1,000 yards and only 1 where he's hit double figures in TD's. I'm not even sure he's a top 10 running back. There are way too many red flags on McFadden when there are other guys who are just as likely to put up those kinds of numbers a round or two later.
Agreed. For a 12 team PPR with 6 pts. per TD from the QB, I'd listen to arguments for any of the top 5 quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton) within the first two rounds. Stafford and Newton maybe round 2 only. But not a bad strategy at all, really.
Right. I have a draft Sunday that is exactly like this (12 teams, 6 points for passing TDs, PPR). If I cannot get Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Stafford in the first, my plan is to wait on QB and grab someone like Rivers, Romo or Ryan. On ESPN their ADP is 50- 61 (so early 4th to early 5th in 12 team leagues). I think that is a better value than using a 2nd or 3rd rounder on Newton, Vick and brothers Manning.
While it's true that QB is technically deeper, the top three (or four if you want to include Stafford) are so much better than the next group, that even with the stats that Eli, Ryan, and Romo get you're going to be at a disadvantage. In terms of QB in fantasy this year, good to great play from those guys is the new mediocre.
If you want to win your league, draft a RB.
If you don't want to win your league, draft a QB.
Location: Mumbai, India
Just to give you an idea of what happened in the two leagues I had drafts in last weekend:
League A (8 teams, .25 PPR, QB's get 4 points per TD + yard bonuses):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Arian Foster
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Tom Brady
6. Ray Rice
7. Drew Brees
8. Matthew Stafford
League B (12 teams, .25 PPR, QB's get 5 points per TD + yard bonuses
1. Arian Foster
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tom Brady
5. Ray Rice
6. Calvin Johnson
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Chris Johnson
9. Darren McFadden
10. Larry Fitzgerald
11. Matthew Stafford
12. Cam Newton
All. Day. Long.
1) Forte stays healthy? Check again. Missed games last year. Forte also now has Michael Bush to steal carries away while DMC loses Bush. Also, Forte is just not as good as DMC.
2) Charles? They came out today and said that he is splitting carries 50/50 with Hillis.
Bingo. Drafting a RB doesn't mean that you will win it, but it gives you a chance. You won't win a 12-team league drafting a QB there ... you'll end up with Kevin Smith as a starter at RB.
All that said is assuming that your league is any good.
Dammit ... 2nd league drafts in 20 mins. Just logged on and have the 8th pick of 10. Not where I wanted to be at all.
DMC is the 6th ranked pick overall in the Yahoo lists ... I hope he falls to me at 8.
I hope that one of my top 7 at least does.
This post was edited by bulldogg 20 months ago
No you won't. I took Drew Brees in the first round with the 7th pick of a similar draft. Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round and Doug Martin in the 3rd.
Would you really take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round?
I used to be a RB/RB guy in the first two rounds. But with 6 pts per passing TD, the top 5 QB's are so much more valuable than the rest that you need to have one on your team. Last year I grabbed one in the 2nd round, but everyone seems to have caught on to their value now, so they won't last that long anymore.
No way would I take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round ... it was a sarcastic joke - kinda. But you need to start two RBs. Who is your other starter?
The ONLY way that I take Brees/Brady in the top 7 is if it is a two QB league. Then they are top 5 material.
The last time Charles split carries with someone, he was a top 10 fantasy player. Last year was the first time Forte missed any time in a season. The problem I have with McFadden as a mid first round pick is that you're assuming that he can stay healthy for a full season (which he's never done) and that he can sustain the pace from his first 3 games last year for a full season. It's the exact same reason I thought the people taking Michael Vick in the first round were idiots.
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