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Watch the draft, scouts love him and all of his concussions were minor and didnt cause him to miss any time.
It depends on how much they improve themselves...using the data in the linked chart and using a straight line analysis that doesn't factor in NPV or inflation and slotting in the same salary for 2013 and 2014 as 2012...if Gholston is picked with the #94 pick in the draft - which I believe is the last pick in the 3rd round, he would earn an annual contract value of $659,375 over 4 years. If he comes back, he foregoes a salary and is earning $0.00 next year. So that means, that he will have to improve his draft stock enough to offset the investment of playing for $0.00 his junior year. That means that his 2014 four year annual value would have to have an equal or better total sum than the 5 year value of his 2013 (junior year) contract - which would come out to an annual value of $824,218.75.
So, he would need to improve his draft stock from the 94 pick in the draft in 2013 to the 62 pick in the draft in 2014 in order to offset that year of playing for $0.00.
I think for Gholston, the decision is a no-brainer. By staying in college, attending DL camps and working on his craft in the off-season...then blossoming on the field next year, he could improve his stock enough to be a 1st round pick - which would offer a significant return on his investment.
For Bell, not so much...based on the market for big backs and running backs in general, Bell's draft stock could only improve slightly and drop significantly. By not going, he could lose out on a lot of money.
Updating the salary cap charges and contract signings for the 2012 NFL rookie class
I believe I remember reading that Kiper has about a 15% accuracy rating in predicting draft selections.
all your ducks in a row
they all gotta go
It won't necessarily shorten his career, but it definitely would not do anything to elongate it.
You are correct...If he is the 1st pick chosen in the 4th round, he would need to be chosen no worse than the last pick of the 2nd round in order to offset the year off playing for $0.00. So, what is the return on the investment if you stay? You're breaking even if you only improve yourself 1 full round. Is the risk of returning worth a $0 return?
Lol they also frequently get cut in training camp.
The difference between a 1st rounder and 3rd rounder in terms of guarranteed money is huge.
1st rounders are guarranteed millionaires 3rd and 4ths dont even neccesarilly make the team.
this, all day.
I see Michigan State as a destination, not a stop.~Mark Dantonio
FWIW, Bell isn't going to get 350 carries next year either. There will be a freshman, redshirt or otherwise, that will get into the RB rotation (and get a meaningful # of carries).
And the "wear and tear" argument is more valid for a smaller back. Jerome Bettis played 13 years. He did go pro after his junior season, but he was also selected 10th overall. Also keep in mind that it's much more of a passing league in the NFL now, most RBs aren't going to get the mileage that they used to.
Thank you for the info VargMan.
I would hope this is the kind of information the players are receiving.
What makes you say that? Larry Caper once led this team in rushing, and he got what, like 16 carries this year? Barring injury, Bell would get AT LEAST 300 carries, but I'd guess more like 350.
I don't need to go over the reasons why Bell should go, they've already been covered by everyone else. It's not a chicken little mentality, it's smart business. Unless Bell really wants to go to the Rose Bowl, which is obviously not a guarantee by any means, he shouldn't be back next year, and I don't think anyone can blame him.
If there is one thing coach D has proven it's that if he has a horse he is gonna ride him.
The only way Bell can be helped is if we find a competent back to complement him. If he has to carry the ball 350+ times again next year then in no way shape or form does it help his draft stock. If Baker would have stayed, I think this season would have turned out VERY differently.
If you were an NFL GM, would you take Ball or Bell?
Johnny Adams did have a beard...
If this season has taught him anything, it's that you can't expect guys who have never played to just step in and replace a starter. I don't think he wants to enter the 2014 season they way we did this year, with completely untested players at key positions on offense.
I think we'll see more reps for backups across the board. If we find a reliable speed back between the incoming freshman and redshirt freshman, it's a no brainer.
But isn't that exactly what is gonna happen next year if Bell does leave?
Let's face it, if Bell leaves, the RB position is going to be the great unknown next year and has the possibilities of being a huge problem.
that is an interesting question. I assume Ball goes first, but I actually think Bell may have the better NFL career. I guess it depends on what you have on your roster.
There's actually debate about this? No way should Bell come back -- no way!
As a spartan fan I don't even want him to come back next year. It helps our program long-term when we put kids in the NFL -- and it helps recruiting as well. We need guys like Worthy, Bell, etc. in the NFL raising the profile of our program. Gholston, Sims, Dennard should stay because the extra year in college sets them up for better success in the NFL -- they can still improve a lot at this level. Bell -- nothing left to prove, not much that he can improve on. Go get paid! And represent us well in the pros!
For all the talk about getting cut after training camp -- that can happen even after his senior season. There's not much he can improve on between this year and next that would reduce the odds of that happening. Declare, get drafted, work your butt off. That's his best bet.
That's your opinion. My opinion is the chance of either of Gholston or Sims "playing" their way in to a 1st round pick is more remote than serious injury or sub par/average performance.
Exactly, everyone reading Kiper like the Bible. The same guy that had Jimmy Clausen as the 4th best player in the 2010 draft.
The ESPN draftnik showdown between Mel Kiper and Todd McShay regarding the fate of Jimmy Clausen ended with McShay scoring a slam-dunk victory.t a top-40 selection.
Lol well that settles it! Kiper doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground because he got this wrong out of the 100,000+ players he's evaluated.
Ball, I don't see much difference between a J. Bell or M. Leshoure and Leveon Bell except those players are probably faster. Monte Ball has speed. I think scouts like Dion Sims the best and probably why he would be a late 2nd, early 3rd round pick despite his injuries and inconsistencies.
Montee Ball will get beat up before the draft
Your boy Kiper. He said we'll see what happens 3 years from now. So where is Jimmy Clausen now. You can check him out on his very own website with Facebook.
The Official Website of Jimmy Clausen, NFL Quarterback for the Carolina Panthers
You never know. A lot depends on opportunities. Javon Ringer is a hell of a back but sits on the bench because of Chris Johnson. Drew Stanton sits behind Stafford and Andrew Luck. And Kurt Cousins gets his chance right away because RG3 gets injured.
wait, these guys are so good they might be 1st rounders next year but you think they might get cut as 3rd and 4th round draft picks this year......you're all over the place. Both would make teams THIS year and sign around a 4 year $2-3 million deal. If they really are "1st round talent" then that will show and they will cash in later. Not too bad for guys with little kids. You're looking at this through green glasses.
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