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This was a question from today's chat:
Brad (Indiana): Why in the world do you have Gonzaga as a 1 seed!??
Joe Lunardi: Not to be rude, but I know more about this than most people, that's why. And because other people just need to get over themselves. Bigger name doesn't always equate to better team.
Not a ridiculous question - a lot of people are bearish on Gonzaga due to lack of RPI wins, lack of SoS, and lack of RPI. But instead of politely explaining why, Lunardi throws out the traditional "Not to be _____, but I'm going to be it." The guy didn't ask an inane question or insult Lunardi - it was a fair question. But here's the best part, according to Bracket Matrix which has ranked the bracketologists back to 2006, Lunardi is 36th out of 65. So he'd be a 9/10 seed in the tournament, and is in the bottom 40% overall, and has been below average 4 of 7 years. So while he may know a lot about it, he's clearly not elite, or even above average in his field of bracketology.
Just another reason why this time of the year the consensus is better than the lone 'expert'. Use bracket matrix and avoid suckling only at the teat of ESPN.
I always hated lunardi always came across as a chode. Thank you for reinforcing my opinion.
I can't bring myself to acknowledge Gonzaga as #1 overall. I realize they have not lost in forever and a half ago, but their lack of wins over the higher echelon of teams in the country is what I'm most worried about. I am glad that you recognize this, but for some reason the AP voters have a curious case of amnesia come Sunday evening...
Joe Lunardi (2:15 PM)
Gonzaga will not be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament regardless of the next polls. In fact, I think it's likely they get passed for the top line between now and Selection Sunday. It's not a knock; just reality. Heck, they could lose tomorrow night at BYU. The truth is that there's very little competitive difference between No. 1 and No. 2 in the eventual West Region.
When it comes to the #1 seeds, it would seem it would come down to the winner of the ACC (either Duke or Miami), the winner of the Big 10 (either IU or UM), Gonazga, and either Kansas or the most deserving loser of the ACC or B1G. Do you agree?
Joe Lunardi (2:32 PM)
Close. I'd go: Big 10 winner, ACC winner, Kansas (if wins out), Big 10 runner-up (if strong enough), Gonzaga (as "spare" No. 1 seed)
I have a gut feeling that a #16 seed is going to win an NCAA tournament game this year.
Enough to bet on it?
I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this.
What lack of RPI? They're 10th - just behind Indiana (8) and MSU (9) who are also in the running for one seeds (Indiana may be a lock). They have as many RPI Top 100 wins as MSU, Michigan and Indiana and Arizona (10) and more than Louisville. They are 2-0 against RPI Top 25 and neither of those wins came on their home court. Of course they don't get as many chances against RPI Top 25 competition as the big boys do, but they've converted their opportunities. They're 5th in BPI, which I don't look at as a ranking metric but it's been factored in pretty heavily this year. Their non-con SOS is better than MSU, Michigan, Indiana, Syracuse and Louisville.
The Lunardi chats aren't even worth it IMO. He wants to answer as many questions as he possibly can in the time frame so most of his answers are curt and make him out to be a dick. He also favors the east coast schools big time because he's an east coast guy, which is why he usually has more A10 and Big East schools either in his bracket or on the bubble than other bracket forecasters do.
This post was edited by Lunchables 17 months ago
A 16 seed has won a tournament game every year since the NCAA added additional teams to the "Field of 64."
But the though that a 16 will beat a 1...I hear you. Now is as good of a chance as any for that to happen.
I've been hoping since Michigan had their #1 ranking that they would get a #1 seed and be the first team to lose to a #16 seed.
This is a Pallas’s cat. Their round pupils give them an odd human quality. They disturb me...deeply.
Well the guy posing the question kind of came off as a dick as well. He could have simply asked "What is your reasoning behind Gonzaga?". I might have given an answer such as "Well because they are about to be ranked number 1 dumbass". Regardless, Lunardi has a point, people do need to get over themselves. Just because your team is a big name doesn't mean they deserve special treatment. Ask Butler how good a mid-major can be.
Yup. Plan to put some money down on one of the #1/#16 games in Las Vegas.
10th in RPI does not a 1 seed make. Moreover, with their 10th ranked RPI they also have a 66 SoS. One of the little metrics I like to look at is RPI + SoS, and their RPI+SOS of 66 would put them at 27th. If you're going to have a mediocre SoS, then have an RPI to back it up.
Look, I think Zaga is a pretty good team, and I realize they can't do anything about their conference sucking, but I do have a problem with their lack of good games. It's the same problem that Boise has. Gonzaga whines about no one wanting to come to Spokane, then man up and travel. If you're going to play in a joke of a conference, then you have to be willing to play wherever, whenever, whoever. I
think the big time schools would welcome paying Gonzaga 50-75K to come to their homes. Play some neutral site games. Go play another big time mid-majors later in the season (Memphis and Xavier just had an OOC game the other night). It's the same problem with Boise - no one wants to play you home and home? Fine, man up and play where you can.
Until then, the fact that they have the fewest RPI 25 and 50 wins of the #1 teams, the worst SoS, and one of the lower RPIs points to the fact that that is not a 1 seed. For the record, I would seed the following teams unquestionably ahead of Gonzaga:
MSU, scUM, IU, Louisville, Miami, KU, and Duke. Gonzaga is in a 2nd tier with UF, Zona, Syracuse and UNM.
If Gonzaga loses a game before their conference tourney, they will drop like a rock in the polls, guaranteed
Gonzaga will be the 1st #1 seed to lose in the 1st round.
Great, now I'm thinking about that 1990 Murray St. horror show of a game. Damn you Popeye Jones!
Your a retard.
Who have they beaten? You say they're 2--0 vs top 25 RPI. That could mean they've beaten 24 and 25. MSU has beaten UM, tOSU, Kansas, @ Wiscy. Overall, Gonzagas SOS may be on par with MSU when you average it out, but there is no way that Gonzaga plays teams near the caliber that MSU does. You can't tell me that facing St Marys, Loyola, and San Fran is as god as UM, tOSU, and IU. Again, list the Zags top 5 wins, and it pales in comparison to any of the top 6 or 7 that are also fighting for a one seed.
Well neither does 8th or 9th if you look at recent RPI ranks the last few years, but everyone seems to be OK with Indiana getting a 1 and MSU being in the discussion.
Gonzaga does travel. They went to Butler this year in the middle of the season and have played home and homes with Memphis during the same time of year in the past just to get more RPI-friendly games. They won the Old Spice tournament this year with what turned out to be a less than stellar field (Davidson and Oklahoma are still NCAA teams). Played K-State at a neutral venue at that Battle for Seattle thing that they do every year. All you have to do is go to ESPN.com to their team page and look at their non-con slates the last 6-7 years. On top of playing on the road, they've done Maui, Old Spice, Preseason NIT... They played at Breslin, they played Illinois at the United Center... They'll do whatever it takes because they know that's their fallback if they don't win their conference tournament.
Which brings it into my next point. Pretty much the only knock on Gonzaga is their conference but it's been a multiple bid league for years (they got three in their tournament last year which was 1/3 of their membership). Not many mid major leagues can say that. Last year St. Mary's played BYU and Gonzaga three times including the conf. tournament, which meant 1/3 of their 18 conf. games were against teams that not only made the tournament, but won a game in the tournament. Not many mid major leagues can say that. They have 4 teams in the RPI Top 100 this year. The last two years the league has done all it possibly can and Gonzaga isn't pulling the weight alone.
I think it'd be better for Gonzaga if they got a 2 - less pressure that way and I'd almost certainly have Indiana and Miami ahead of them as far as the 1 line goes... but the #s aren't as far-fetched as many are making it out to be. In the case of teams like Michigan and Louisville, it's really only one or in some cases two more RPI Top 50 wins and Gonzaga's win percentage is better against Top 50 competition. Gonzaga also beat two teams Kansas lost to, so I'd have to give them the edge over KU as well.
..and this is why I would like to see scUM be a 1 seed!
This is sort of related to the whole Gonzaga ordeal, but how in the world does New Mexico have the #4 SOS in the country? The best teams they have played are UConn, Cincy and Colorado St. Am I missing something here?
Middle Tennesee State
All at home.
St. Mary's (twice)
Only one at home. Looking at the RPI there's basically no difference between those wins. The RPI is flawed (just look at Middle Tennessee State at 27th) but it's one of the main numbers out there to go on.
According to those that matter, Stength of schedule only matters for college football and the SEC.
because you could almost make a reasonable case for the mountain west to be the no.3/4 conference this season behind the big 10 and the big east..... they will make a good case for at least 4 and possibly 5 teams in this year.... New Mexico, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV... possibly that boise state team that pushed us in the non-conf....
better than the pac 10... the sec... and probably the ACC outside of duke and miami...
the thing about gonzaga is they went out and scheduled non-con on the road (remember they would be 5-0 in the big 12)
They avoided bad teams. Scheduling top 100 teams in the non con (so bad, but not terrible - i.e. Purdue and Iowa) really boosts your SoS.
At one point or another the MWC had like seven teams in the discussion for NCAA tournament inclusion and they only have 9 teams. Just like a major conference, playing a team almost every night in conference play that is considered to be either in the NCAA Tournament or on the bubble hikes up SOS.
They also had a "hit" in pretty much every mid major game they played non-conference. Davidson appears to be headed to the tournament. Indiana State is a bubble team that beat Miami (New Mex won @ Indiana State). Valpo, South Dakota State and Saint Louis are all leading their respective leagues. They had a lot of teams blossom into conference leaders or possibly conference champs and that's helped in addition to their games against UConn at a neutral site and @ Cincy. Didn't have a lot of non-con opponents that sagged to terrible records in mid major conferences.
Yeah, but I don't want to give them banner material ("#1 NCAA seed, 2013!").
Thank you, Denicos.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the way the SOS index is calculated, a team is better off playing the #150 and #151 teams rather than the #1 and #300 teams.
Everyone is ok with MSU and IU being in the discussion because they have: A. More top 25 wins, B. More Top 50 Wins, and C. A MUCH tougher Sos (9 and 21 respectively, compared to 66). Like I said, add up the SoS and RPI and Gonzaga isn't in the top 26
You're right - Gonzaga does play some tough games (Butler, Illy, Okie State, Baylor, K-State), and historically schedules tough. They have the #25 non-con SoS this year. However, they also played: Southern Utah (281), South Dakota (253), Pacific (140), and Campbell (280). I'll give them credit for scheduling half their Non-Con against Power 6 teams and good mid majors. However, there is no reason they should be playing patsies in the non-con. Unforutnatley, for them, a lot of their power 6 teams had shitty years (Clemson, WV, and Wazzou; though, I would add, no one though that Illy, Oklahoma, and K-State would be as good as they are, so maybe that's a wash). If they know their league SoS is going to be shit, then you make EVERY game count. Put another way - MSU had 4 non-con top 50 games (Uconn, KU, Miami, and Boise); Gonzaga had 5.
The only knock on Gonzaga is not just their league, it's their scheduling. Yes, Gonzaga has played 3 teams with a pulse since the new year (Butler, SMC X 2), and that's a testament to their league shittyness. But that could have been rectified with a killer schedule during the non-con. As for their league being historically good, that has ZERO bearing on this year's team. The B1G hasn't been good in years, does that mean we should discount this year? The MWC has never been this good, certainly it's not this good year - right?
Tl;dr Gonzaga is good, but they don't deserve a 1. Your resume is not just about w's and l's, it's also who you play and who you beat. Granted, Gonzaga can only control 1/2 of that, but they didn't do enough with the half they control to warrant a #1 seed*.
*I think Gonzaga, if they wanted to, could move to the MWC or C-USA for hoops only. It's not a huge step up (B12 or P12 wouldn't want them), but it certainly would provide some better competition.
Eh, I don't know about Conference USA in terms of the competition. Would it look better on the surface? Maybe, but their conference RPI is 11th and WCC is 9th. Memphis is 24-4 and they aren't even a lock for the tournament yet. They also prop that league up ungodly amounts. Once they head to the Big East, Conference USA is going to be a total wasteland. At least the WCC has a nice, consistent second fiddle in St. Mary's and BYU was the addition the league really needed.
Mountain West would definitely be something to look into. They added Hawaii just for football so they opened the _____-only member door. Gonzaga would have to make a choice, continue to be what they are off the court (a small private religious institution among many in the WCC) or joining up with other like-minded western mid major basketball powers (New Mexico, UNLV and SDSU in the MWC). The travel would be rough, but I'd also be sending a few emails to Catholic 7 ADs as well and see if Saint Louis or Creighton would want to form a western branch.
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