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There are so many conflicting opinions from the "talking heads" about Payne's draft stock it's maddening. I don't think any really have any idea whatsoever.
My Blood Runs Green.....
I think that points to him coming back.
Sparty is our mascot, we are Spartans.
He can help his draft stock so significantly if he returns. I hope he sees that. I do think he could be a late first rd pick this year but its a gamble. If he comes back as scoring option 1 or 2 with Gary Harris, and makes even more progress (it doesn't even have to be the leap he took this yr) he can be a lottery pick. Kind of reminds me of the Zach Randolph (albeit the lite version) decision. He was a first rounder, but had he stayed another yr at MSU that kid was no question a lottery pick.
"losing Caleb Benenoch is a blow that Dantonio will never recover from. Izzo has lost it as well. Hoke and Beilein own the state."
it should, I mean you talk about a multi MILLION dollar gamble: come back and improve your game and stock AP
Sounds like a win-win for Payne. I really don't think he can make a "wrong" decision here as he can either get paid now or contend for a national title, move into the lottery and get paid later.
In which case, I come back next year to lock in a first round selection & guaranteed contract.
The risk of going second round is probably not worth it. If he had topped out already, I'd say "go!", but he was just starting to put it together the second half of the year and his skills are still on the rise. A full season of playing confident basketball for a contending team will make him a very high profile player.
Can't fault him if he decides to go (I sympathize with the fear of major injury especially), but man, this is one kid I feel like could really skyrocket with one more year.
and buy a little insurance against injury.
If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day.
It would be very tough for Payne to move up into the lottery next year.
"Put your mother in a straight-jacket you punk ass white boy." ~ Mike Tyson
Would it be against compliance rules if an alum took out an insurance policy on Payne to be payable to payne - that way no money exchanges hands?
yeah, compliance would look down on that. But you can tweet them and ask for yourself. haha. Im sure the response would be awesome!!
The only consensus seems to be that he's not a lottery pick this year.
tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.
Maybe so, but he could at least solidify himself as a first round pick.
If it was clear cut, he would have announced either way. I doubt Izzo gathered info on Payne and Harris in separate processes and obviously AP is a lot closer to a lock to be drafted than Harris. It could be health as it was pretty widely known about Harris' shoulder issues but lets not forget AP's back injury that impaired him in the Duke game. Haven't seen much about that and obviously he toughed it out.
Although I'd love it if AP stayed, he has to do what's right for his family. If he can boil down the advice of Izzo and others as to where he would land in the draft, he has a major decision to make that has risks on both sides. If he thinks he could end up with a reasonable NBA shot and $$$, that's a bird in the hand versus another year with a tougher draft class in 2014 not to mention risk of injury. We'll all know if the decision was right in five years, no of us can be sure of either decision he ultimately makes until then.
Payne's decision is tough - if he sneaks into the late first round, he's getting a guarenteed contract for a likely contender. If he slips, he then has to fight for a roster spot on a likely lottery team with a bunch of other hungry players fighting for a contract.
Selfishly, I hope he stays another year but if he can get that first round grade, it'd be hard to pass up entering the draft.
This. And guarantee him $$$ in the 1st round. If he goes this year 2nd round is a very real possibility.
A man's gotta eat!
I wish Payne luck either way. It's always easy to judge things from afar but when it's your life and career you are making a decision on, it has got to be tough. I just think if it was me there are more positives to coming back for his senior season than to leaving at this point. It's just too big of a gamble to leave and then potentially fall out of the first round. If he falls into the second round which sounds like he might than he risks losing so much, but if he comes back he could hopefully improve his stock, get a college degree and play on a high profile potential national title contender. I'm sure though that the risk of injury playing one more season of college might be a factor as well, but I'd take that gamble over the risk of potentially leaving losing out on guaranteed money and then if things go south you are left with lesser options.
Any idea when Payne is announcing?
Not if he falls to rd 2.
damn right....you and rogue leader are correct: it's a helluva risk to go now....fall to round 2 and anything can happen.
For his sake, Payne should go. Staying a year risks injury, and seniors don't get respected by the NBA in the draft any more.
That's asinine. He should go if he wants. Not because of some hypothetical injury risk. If he stays he can make much more money over the long term.
If he goes, at worst he his making good money in Europe. At best he is a first round pick and is making great money in the NBA.
If he stays, he definitely risks falling to at least the 2nd round next year because the NBA does not value seniors, and he also risks an injury.
He can always come back and finish his last 25 or so credits and get a degree.
If he stays he can have a dominant senior season and move up into the lottery. The pros like bigmen who are seniors just fine.
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