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MSU Odds By Game

  • xwing said... (original post)

    MSU has beaten NW the last three years in a row which includes two wins in Chicago.

    When is the last time MSU has beaten Iowa at Iowa? I think they have a good shot this year but I will believe it when I see it.

    Players from past years that no longer have eligibility or are no longer a part of the official roster are not permitted to play in this game...therefore, the question "when was the last time MSU has beaten Iowa at Iowa" is irrelevant to the actual game itself.

  • xwing said... (original post)

    MSU has beaten NW the last three years in a row which includes two wins in Chicago.

    When is the last time MSU has beaten Iowa at Iowa? I think they have a good shot this year but I will believe it when I see it.

    And how does that affect this year? Northwestern is a strong team, Iowa lost the majority of their team. It was damn near impossible for us to win in Ann Arbor and State College in the past, yet we handled Michigan the last two times there and were pretty dominant against Penn State until the very end last year.

  • Iowa has the same coach. UM didn't. PSU had a pretty down year last year for PSUs standards. The fact that they only beat PSU @ PSU once in a million years and the fact they don't win @ UM often kind of helps my point imo . Some teams as some programs are just hard to beat on the road.

    Also MSUs team is different then last years team as well.

    I think people have to temper the expectations a little bit. MSU has a very young defense. Talented but young. Three new starters on the O-line. Again, talented but young.

    Iowa lost players but Ferentz is still a good coach and Iowa is one of the toughest places to play in the big ten. I believe it might be a night game? It is going to be a hornets nest. Who is to say Iowas new players aren't talented similar to MSUs?

    NW is an easy place for MSU to play. Last year I think there were more MSU fans than NW fans at that stadium.

    This post was edited by xwing 3 years ago

  • I expect MSU to win anywhere from 8-10 games this year.

    I could easily see 4 losses on the schedule. ND is going to be tough. So are all of the 4 BT road games. Like everyone has pointed out NW has returned most of their starters. There are no gimmies on the road in the Big Ten.

    Also they play UW at home and UM is still a rilvary game.

    Absolute worst case scenerio is 7-5 though. They should beat Indiana, Minny,, CMU, Youngstown State, and FAU rolling out of bed.

    Also what if Cousins goes down? People act like this couldn't happen. MSU has actually been pretty fortunate with no injuries at QB since Stanton. With a young O-line it is possible that he could get hurt. He got banged up in the UM game in 2009 and in the Alabama game last year.

    Edit: like many people have pointed out it is possible that the the teams that make it to the BT tournment championship game coming out of the legands division will have 3 losses. it could happen. Especially if MSU beats Nebraska and UM but loses 3 games.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by xwing 3 years ago

  • JEK said... (original post)

    From what I can tell, most Spartan fans are predicting 9-3 or 8-4. That's not drinking the kool aid, imo. Defending champs, and returning many key starters, we have logical reasons to be optimistic. Doesn't mean we can't pull a dud season and go 7-5 or 6-6 though either. It's possible. One thing I will say though is people keep talking about the brutal schedule. Well, our biggest competition in the Legends division is Nebraska, and their schedule is tougher than ours. We could potentially have a worse record, but a better season (i.e., go to the conf championship game and rose bowl).

    I agree with you completely up until you get to Nebraska's schedule; yes, they get PSU where we get IU, which is a break for us, but I still feel like their schedule is easier. Their home schedule in conference play is harder than ours, but our road slate is much tougher than theirs, and personally, I would rather have our toughest games at home in Spartan Stadium and our patsies on the road.

    Anything can happen, but I don't see us having a worse record AND a better season, unless we beat Nebraska in Lincoln.

    I think our odds like something like this:

    YSU - 95
    FAU - 95
    @ ND - 50
    CMU - 95
    @ OSU - 40
    UM - 75
    Wiscy - 55
    @ UNL - 30
    Minny - 90
    IU - 90
    @ Iowa - 35
    @ NU - 70

  • There are already lines out for most of our "big" games - ND, UM, Wiscy, Nebraska for sure.

    You can convert those lines to approximate money lines and then convert those money lines into percentages.

    MSU vs. ND = ND -7 = +225 = ~ 31%
    UM vs. MSU = MSU -6 = -255 = ~72%
    Wiscy vs. MSU = Wisconsin -1.5 = +110 = ~48%
    MSU vs. Neb = Nebraska -8 = +250 = ~29%
    MSU vs. Iowa = Iowa -1 = +100 = ~50%

    This post was edited by WhiteBoyHatcher 3 years ago

    Knibb High football rules

  • WhiteBoyHatcher said... (original post)

    There are already lines out for most of our "big" games - ND, UM, Wiscy, Nebraska for sure.

    You can convert those lines to approximate money lines and then convert those money lines into percentages.

    MSU vs. ND = ND -7 = +225 = ~ 31% UM vs. MSU = MSU -6 = -255 = ~72% Wiscy vs. MSU = Wisconsin -1.5 = +110 = ~48% MSU vs. Neb = Nebraska -8 = +250 = ~29% MSU vs. Iowa = Iowa -1 = +100 = ~50%

    To further this, I can hazard a guess at our lines for the rest of the games if they were posted today based on the above lines. To convert those to approximate win percentages in the eyes of Vegas:

    MSU -35 vs. YSU = ~99.6%
    MSU -24.5 vs. FIU = ~98%
    MSU -20.5 vs. CMU = ~94%
    MSU +4.5 @. OSU = ~36%
    MSU -14.5 vs. Minnesota = ~80%
    MSU -21 vs. IU = ~95%
    MSU -1.5 @ Northwestern = ~57%

    So the entire slate:

    MSU -35 vs. YSU = ~99.6%
    MSU -24.5 vs. FIU = ~98%
    MSU +7 @ ND = ~31%
    MSU -20.5 vs. CMU = ~94%
    MSU +4.5 @. OSU = ~36%
    MSU -6 vs. UM = ~72%
    MSU +1.5 vs. Wiscy = ~48%
    MSU +8 vs. Nebraska = ~29%
    MSU -14.5 vs. Minnesota = ~80%
    MSU +1 @ Iowa = ~50%
    MSU -21 vs. IU = ~95%
    MSU -1.5 @ Northwestern = ~57%

    THUS, in the eyes of Vegas, we have an approximately .22% chance of going undefeated and hoping the computers put us in the fake National Championship game.

    Or a ~1/45500 chance.

    This is how Vegas rips you off on futures bets like MSU winning the MNC. What are we, 75:1? People get all hot in the pants when they envision their $100 turning into $7500.

    Well, if you would have taken that $100 and bet it on the ML every week, rolling over each week, you'd have $4,550,000 going into the MNC game. Unless my math is fucked.

    This post was edited by WhiteBoyHatcher 3 years ago

    Knibb High football rules

  • WhiteBoyHatcher said... (original post)

    To further this, I can hazard a guess at our lines for the rest of the games if they were posted today based on the above lines. To convert those to approximate win percentages in the eyes of Vegas:

    MSU -35 vs. YSU = ~99.6% MSU -24.5 vs. FIU = ~98% MSU -20.5 vs. CMU = ~94% MSU +4.5 @. OSU = ~36% MSU -14.5 vs. Minnesota = ~80% MSU -21 vs. IU = ~95% MSU -1.5 @ Northwestern = ~57%

    Nice work. Where do you see those lines at?

  • RBW Spartan

    WhiteBoyHatcher said... (original post)

    To further this, I can hazard a guess at our lines for the rest of the games if they were posted today based on the above lines. To convert those to approximate win percentages in the eyes of Vegas:

    MSU -35 vs. YSU = ~99.6% MSU -24.5 vs. FIU = ~98% MSU -20.5 vs. CMU = ~94% MSU +4.5 @. OSU = ~36% MSU -14.5 vs. Minnesota = ~80% MSU -21 vs. IU = ~95% MSU -1.5 @ Northwestern = ~57%

    So the entire slate:

    MSU -35 vs. YSU = ~99.6% MSU -24.5 vs. FIU = ~98% MSU +7 @ ND = ~31% MSU -20.5 vs. CMU = ~94% MSU +4.5 @. OSU = ~36% MSU -6 vs. UM = ~72% MSU +1.5 vs. Wiscy = ~48% MSU +8 vs. Nebraska = ~29% MSU -14.5 vs. Minnesota = ~80% MSU +1 @ Iowa = ~50% MSU -21 vs. IU = ~95% MSU -1.5 @ Northwestern = ~57%

    THUS, in the eyes of Vegas, we have an approximately .22% chance of going undefeated and hoping the computers put us in the fake National Championship game.

    Or a ~1/45500 chance.

    This is how Vegas rips you off on futures bets like MSU winning the MNC. What are we, 75:1? People get all hot in the pants when they envision their $100 turning into $7500.

    Well, if you would have taken that $100 and bet it on the ML every week, rolling over each week, you'd have $4,550,000 going into the MNC game. Unless my math is fucked.

    The problem with your math is that it's

    A. Possible to get to the MNC with 1+ loss
    B. You're betting on futures - maybe Denicos is the second coming of LT, and we don't allow a single point, or maybe Cousins goes down. It's called futures for a reason.
    C. The money value of ML doesn't synch up to the futures bet. If a team is a 95% favorite in each game, that means over 14 games they have only a 49% of going undefeated. If they're 99% in each game, it's only 87%.

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  • Slippery People said... (original post)

    Nice work. Where do you see those lines at?

    5 dimes has the big games listed (ND, UM, Wiscy, Neb, Iowa). I guessed on the others based on a long history of degenerate football gambling.

    Knibb High football rules

  • RBW Spartan said... (original post)

    The problem with your math is that it's

    A. Possible to get to the MNC with 1+ loss B. You're betting on futures - maybe Denicos is the second coming of LT, and we don't allow a single point, or maybe Cousins goes down. It's called futures for a reason. C. The money value of ML doesn't synch up to the futures bet. If a team is a 95% favorite in each game, that means over 14 games they have only a 49% of going undefeated. If they're 99% in each game, it's only 87%.

    A. MSU isn't getting to the MNC with 1+ loss
    B. I'm not sure how this is relevant
    C. I think you're just restating how I arrived at .22%.

    The real problem with my math is that these lines/MLs will vary greatly as the season goes along. This is an approximate guess as to what they would be if the games were going to be played tomorrow.

    The reality is, we may be a 10.5 pt favorite against Michigan at home if we beat ND and they lose to them handily. If Nebraska has 3 losses and we've just taken down ND, Michigan, Wiscy, and OSU we might be a pick 'em there. The longer an undefeated season went, the more respect we would get from the books and our MLs would probably shrink accordingly.

    Still, a suicide rollover (bless you Dell Dude) for $100 on MSU MLs makes a whole lot more sense than putting $100 on us (or any team for that matter) at 30:1 or 75:1 or whatever.

    Knibb High football rules

  • WhiteBoyHatcher said... (original post)

    5 dimes has the big games listed (ND, UM, Wiscy, Neb, Iowa). I guessed on the others based on a long history of degenerate football gambling.

    Thanks, I was looking yesterday for individual game lines and couldn't find them. Don't gamble much myself but always follow the lines.