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I think this is a key point. On the flip side, MSU has been playing well and winning, and clearly has momentum over UM.
It has been very interesting to watch Big Ten teams evolve on how to defend UM this year. The early thought was to stop Burke at all costs. It makes sense, because they are a different team without him and the majority of the offense runs directly through him. The problem was that Stauskas and GR3 were way better than anticipated, and without defensive attention, they were killing people. Now, more teams have been letting Burke get his but stopping the shooters, and UM has not had as much success. It is also clear that the UM guys are tiring, just like the strong starting 5/weak bench tOSU teams of the past few years.
I hope we go over the high ball screens. If Burke turns the corner, rotate over, but not off of Stauskas. If they ever sit Burke, pressure the crap out of whoever they let bring the ball up the court. MSU has a man press package for this in their practice rotation. Play Hardaway tight early, and he'll force everything late. Stay between GR3 and the hoop. If he beats us from deep, good for him, but don't let him get confident with easy shots close to the bucket.
If we can trick Coach Krzyzewski into saying his own name backwards, perhaps he will be pushed back to the fifth dimension
You pressure Burke and make him work for everything in the 1st half and he will not be as effective in the 2nd half. I'd rather Burke take 20+ shots than have him dishing all game.
I think you're seeing Burke wear down, he's played 83 minutes in the last 2 games and he's still only a 5-11, 175 pound sophomore in college. Let him shoot the ball 30 times if you can. Appling will make him work an is bigger and stronger than him.
Without Morgan, Michigan plays essentially 5 guys with a couple other getting a few minutes here or there, we run when we can, make them work, and pound the ball inside and we will wear them down.
I'm looking forward to watching the guard matchups. Guessing Appling is frothing at the mouth at the opportunity of checking Burke.
MSU should be able to beat up scUM on the block.
I don't think either Stauskas or Robinson III will get much 1 on 1 time against Payne. I think they zone a lot. But it goes both ways, can Payne chase either of those two all around the perimeter? My guess is Izzo doesn't want that, as AP will be too gassed to stay on the court and be effective on offense. MSU is going to want to force UM to use 2 bigs, and UM is going to want to force MSU to move Dawson to the 4.
I can't believe it, but the search function actually worked - I was just about to start a thread like this.
Are tRCMB experts convinced that it will be Harris on Hardaway? I would have guessed Dawson or maybe even Payne after he did a decent job on Thomas.
The loss of Kearney really hurts here, especially if Trice can't go (which sounds likely). Last year, Appling and Trice were pretty ineffective at guarding Burke, while Kearney's length seemed to bother Burke. Maybe Valentine would be a good option given his height advantage over Burke? Thing is, Valentine isn't nearly as good a defender as Kearney.
Why would we use our worst perimeter defender (Dawson) on their biggest deep threat (Hardaway)?
And yes, I know Stauskas has shot a better percentage than Hardaway this season, but look at their performances over the past few games...
This post was edited by arfabe16 17 months ago
Of course if you go over you risk Burke getting into the lane, which is IMHO where he does a lot more damage either dishing to an open big or out to an open shooter.
I was thinking size more than anything, but you might be right - if Hardaway isn't a threat to post, backdoor, etc. then Harris would probably be best suited for chasing him.
Also, I have to think Harris is going to need to help on Burke at some points during the game. If Trice is out there are only two people who can guard him (Valentine can't keep up with him IMHO).
This post was edited by Fletch 17 months ago
Hardaway can slash and is a good finisher around the rim, but he LOVES his jump shot and will settle for it more often than not.
Robinson, on the other hand, isn't nearly as good a shooter, but he's a lot like Dawson in how he attacks the basket with or without the ball (for putbacks). I'd be surprised if they're not matched up against each other for most of the game.
That leaves UM with the options of a) hoping Stauskas can somewhat limit Payne, b) going zone a lot, or c) using 2 bigs. Given that Beilein hates "c" with his current roster (i.e. they don't have a big who can shoot), I think we'll mostly see a combination of "a" and "b." That also means Payne has to guard someone on the perimeter for most of the game, but he did so pretty well against Illinois and Indiana.
less obvious effect:
Say Dawson does an ok job of checking Hardaway. Fine. But that also moves him to the perimeter most of the time, killing his ability to hit the glass. Need to keep Harris or Appling on THJ so Dawson can do what he does best.
I completely agree. And Harris can't really keep up with Robinson on the glass, but Dawson can.
I'd be shocked if UM doesn't play majority zone tomorrow night. I just don't see how they can play our bigs straight up. If I'm UM I dare Appling and Valentine to hit from outside, understanding Harris will hit a few, and try to clog up the interior - especially if Trice is out.
Other than in transition, GR3 is basically a perimeter player. UM runs MSU's 2004-2005 offense, one post player and four guys who can shoot the 3. Burke gets to the rim more than GR3 does in the halfcourt.
I'm convinced the defensive matchups will be:
Are you sure about that? He's attempted 46 threes on the year while Burke, THJ, and Stauskas have all attempted over twice that amount. He's got a 57% FG percentage. To me, that sounds like he plays/shoots closer to the hoop.
Either way, a combo of Dawson, Payne, and Nix should destroy their front court on the glass.
You have "significant MSU advantages" when it comes to Dawson and Payne both because of Stauskas. I think if we see Robinson on Dawson that is a pretty even matchup. Maybe slightly MSU.
But the Payne Stauskas matchup could be devastating for UM on defense, as Payne could post up with ease, however, that also means that if Payne is guarding Stauskas when UM has the ball, he'll have to stay out the the perimeter since Stauskas is a 48% 3pt shooter. Both guys, Payne and Stauskas should be able to score, but Payne will be more of a sure thing, since he won't be relying on sinking 3 after 3.
I also think that Morgan sat out against Wiscy to rest for this game, so I'm assuming he'll be in there.
When MSU has Payne and Nix on the court together I could see UM playing McGary and Morgan to help with the post disadvantage, and bringing in Stauskas off the bench when only one of those two were out there.
It'll be an interesting game. Michigan is really streaky, in that Hardaway can hit 10 3s in a row, or he can miss 10. I think MSU takes care of business though and wins by 5. Go Green!
UM's biggest advantage is their offense, which could collapse if they played two bigs for significant minutes. If I am B______, I zone MSU and hope my guys can out-score them.
Also, Payne will know that Stauskas' shooting percentage drops significantly if he is not shooting from the left baseline. He is not that hard to defend any more. Payne has the length to recover on those shots if he gets screened.
When have you seen Hardaway get streaky hot On The Road? In a hostile building?
My Blood Runs Green.....
He was 8-17 going 2-3 from 3 against us. That's pretty solid.
"It's not that hard to do"
Kevin Coble and Taylor Battle
"Honestly, we could see a replay of Blake Griffin on Stu Douglass if that happens."
Is Stauskas the single most awkward white guy to play for UM in it's history? Douglass and Novak are close seconds, but I LOVE when this guy tries to drive the lane and bails on an off-target layup. He can shoot the three when wide-open, though. He's got those "deer in headlight" eyes, too.
This post was edited by SpartyPants1 17 months ago
I remember Keith doing a great job on Trey last year at the Brez. Izzo was loving every time Trey tried to drive Keith always beat him to the spot. Izzo was doing his epic fist pumps on defense he was so jacked. Oh my God tomorrows game is going to be so rowdy...
IU 8-16 2-5 3 point
Ill 5-9 2-4 3 point
Minnesota 7-8 4-5 3 point
And what Chitown Badger
Just about every road game we've been in this year...?
The guy's a junior, home/away has no impact on his shot.
This post was edited by gobluescrewosu7 17 months ago
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