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He's pretty much a lock for AL MVP even if he has pedestrian stats the rest of the way. That being said, he has two guys in front of him batting over .300 and his power numbers are only going to increase as the weather gets warmer. 150+ RBI and above .350 is a very, very real possibility. That kind of season in this day and age would be frickin' ridiculous - it hasn't happened often from clean players in the last 40 years (Ryan Howard .313/58/149 in 2006, Todd Helton .372/42/147 in 2001)
The sad thing is he won't be a unanimous selection for MVP because the WAR geeks that have AL MVP votes will stick to their guns and find a way to continue to promote that statistic by laughably voting someone over Cabrera.
This post was edited by Lunchables 11 months ago
This is really the distinction. I don't remember another player hitting the ball that hard that consistently. Aaron and guys like that get cited, but Iwasnt around to see them.
Anyone. Anyplace. Anytime.
In comparing Cabrera and Pedroia (who leads the AL in WAR), Cabrera has been responsible for creating 12 more runs with his bat to date, 1 fewer with his baserunning, and lost one fewer grounding into double plays. So the offensive component of WAR would have Cabrera at +12 runs, a healthy margin.
To date, according to the defensive stats, Pedroia has saved Boston 7 runs and Cabrera has cost Detroit 7 runs. As a basis for comparison, Cabrera was -4 for an entire season last year, so the +7/-7 numbers are pretty huge. I think 2B has a more favorable position adjustment than 3B, but they both list +1 to date. So throw in some rounding and Pedroia is 3 runs ahead of Cabrera in the WAR calculation, to date.
I think that even staunch proponents of WAR think that the defensive numbers aren't reliable measures of true defensive ability until you get around a year's worth of data, and maybe not even then. However, that's for predictive power. I'm not sure if sabermetrics guys think the defensive numbers accurately reflect what actually happened on the field over only 40-something games.
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