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Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Midwest Final 4 Odds: Louisville 53%, Duke 18%, MSU 11%, St Louis 5%, Creighton 3%, Mizzou 3%, Memphis 2%, OK St. 2%
Nate Silver is estimating each team’s chance of advancing to any given stage of the N.C.A.A. bracket. View his estimates as a table and read his analysis.
This post was edited by Taygetus 13 months ago
Haha...darn, was hoping for better odds. Silver has previously ripped on UM on Twitter...and presumably is a MSU fan considering his dad teachers there...so gotta love him.
Unfortunately his numbers have UM at 13%, slightly better odds than ours. FWIW
I would put us closer to 25% on final four. Don't diss Izzo
Dude is good w the predictions..wonder what his methodology was?
They also wouldn't have to get through the #1 overall seed, unlike us.
tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.
Has he released his methodology for this? He started out in baseball before moving to politics, so he definitely knows a little bit about sports.
Nate Silver can say what he wants, but Izzo is a factor that can't be fully accounted for. We have the best coach; talent, record, and every other metric are secondary. Politics =/= NCAA basketball, so Nate can STFU. Romney supporters overrated Romney's chances, that doesn't vindicate every single prediction Nate makes. Maybe Romney supporters are just complete retards. And by maybe, I mean definitely, Romney is and was a piece of shit candidate...
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.
Back to wells with you weirdo!
Rogue Leader= Obese coward who didn't attend MSU and has no college degree
Three straight responses indicate that I'm talking out of my ass. I've had this thought before, perhaps this is just more confirmation that I should avoid the internet when I've been drinking. Happy St. Patty's day, everyone!
You're talking out of your ass. 4.
We Hope For Better Things; It Shall Rise From the Ashes.
Definite ass talk. 5.
Edit: nope. It's 6.
This post was edited by Turtleneck 13 months ago
Romney supporters, November 5th, 2012.
Nate Silver knows what he's doing. We have dropped 4 of our last 7. This team has not looked like a major contender since it blasted UM out of the Breslin with a fire hose more than a month ago. The reason we even get 11% is probably BECAUSE of Tom Izzo.
He also mentioned that his numbers were just a "draft" he said he needs to look at it more thoroughly. So it could +/-
big difference in putting out numbers based on known facts like polling surveys and just picking basketball games on stats. You cant account for unknowns like the crowd or a unexplained turnover or shitty calls by refs.
I'd like to think of some witty way to point out how absurd this post is, but hopefully it just speaks for itself. I would LIKE very much to make the final four, but when it comes to statistical prediction, this guy is better than anyone.
He has Florida as the favorite in their bracket too. I think he's relying on efficiency stats like KenPom does.
UM isn't in the Midwest bracket.
Never tell me the odds
UL was the #1 overall in 2009
This post was edited by CheesySpartan 13 months ago
"love unconditionally". Princess Lacey
I thought it was 50/50... either we're in the Final Four, or we're not.
His odds for Michigan's bracket are head scratching.
Florida 37%, Kansas 32%, Michigan 13%, Georgetown 7%, VCU 3%, Minnesota 2%, UNC 2%
The three most inconsistent teams in the bracket have the best chance?
I know Georgetown has a history....but they didn't have a player like Otto Porter the last few times out. I think the Porter/Starks combo is as good as anyone else has in that region.
Florida played weak competition, Kansas is so inconsistent you never know what team is going to show up, and Michigan has only defended the inside once this season (v. us in Crisler).
This post was edited by RPMadMSU 13 months ago
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