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Nate Silver: MSU Final Four odds:

  • RPMadMSU

    How did he do 2 years ago?

    Regardless This year is much different than 2 years ago. Much more parity, much tougher matchu-ps in my opinion, much harder to pick.

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  • Cap

    2 years ago was very similar to this field, with no overwhelming favorites. The last couple of years favorites per this analysis are listed here (along with his analyis on this years field, which agrees with you about the parity in this years tournament):
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/

    Whenever I see threads on this board about this type of thing or KenPom, it seems people misread these types of predictive odds. It's not like he's saying "Louisville is a lock to win it all, baby!" or "MSU has NO chance to make the Final Four"!
    He's just putting together relative odds of how far teams will advance, much as a bookmaker would when they put together futures bets. I would say, all in all, that Louisville has a better chance to make the Final Four than MSU, all things considered (for one thing, the odds that they will beat Saint Louis seem much higher to me than the odds either Duke OR MSU have of getting through each other). Drop us in a different region, and those odds would certainly have improved. But, who knows, maybe Louisville comes out on the wrong end of the 73% odds he shows of them making the Elite 8 (after all, that means, if you believe these odds, that if they played the tournament 10 times, 3 of those times Louisville would NOT make the Elite 8), and we get by Duke. Or, we simply play our best basketball in Indy and get by both Duke and Louisville, assuming all the seeds hold. That's why they play the games, and I guarantee Nate Silver would agree with that.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Cap 13 months ago

  • http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html?_r=0

    MSU with 11.9% chance of making Final Four, 6.4% of making title game, 2.5% chance of winning it all

    Most likely to win tournament
    1. Louisville 25.3%
    2. Florida 17.5%
    3. Indiana 15.5%
    4. Ohio St. 7.2%
    5. Duke 5.1%

    This post was edited by WBill19542 13 months ago