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"eligitbility" and "Miles White" or "Myles White" ? Just helping. Not a grammar nazi.
Dang, what happened with that Fred Smith guy? Did he just not turn out to be as good as advertised or what?
You've got Mitchell White and Chris McDonald with the same number of stars. That just doesn't seem quite right.
"RCMB: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainry." - some dude from MgoBlog
It's in the amended OP above, but if you're an All-American, you're one of the top 22-25 players in the country that year. I feel that garners "5-star" status.
Similarly, with 6 major conferences, each having a 1st and 2nd team All-Conf. teams with 22-25 man/team = 264-300 players. Coincidentally, there are around 300 total 4-stars handed out each year. Therefore, a guy who makes a 1st or 2nd teams All-Conf. team had a 4-star career.
It's not the only factor, but I think All-American/All-Conf. recognition is a pretty objective measure.
This post was edited by MalibuMan 11 months ago
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
It never fails to surprise me how many people forget.
Ate his way out of WR position. They tried him at TE & FB. Just wasn't physical enough.
Sorry, I typed it out without spell check
Naw, McDonald was rated a 5.5 out of HS and I bumped him to a 5.7 3-star (high 3-star)
Mitchell was unranked and I bumped him to a 5.5 3-star (low 3-star).
You probably saw McDonald's old rating and Mitchell's new one.
McDonald I struggled with. He was a 4 year starter and was extremely durable. At the same time, he never rose above Hon. Mention All-Big 10.
Sorry, guess I didn't pay close enough attention. I just saw 3-star for one and 3-star for the other. Didn't realize you were breaking them out further between high and low. That makes sense...there has to be some distinguishable separation between the two as they certainly didn't have similar on-field careers.
Well, he ended up getting up to 240+ and moved to FB. Couldn't keep in shape.
Awesome job man. I love this kind of stuff. Readable threads have been few and far between around here lately....
Thanks man. I plan on doing it each off season to track how these classes actually play out on the field.
All in all, 8 guys had careers better than their recruiting rankings, 1 guy had his ranking accurately reflect his performance and 13 players under performed their rankings. Rather Hall had a lot to do with that though. I'm very interested to see how the 2009 class plays out; that one didn't have a ton of off-field issues. There are a few transfers, but most of those guys played at least 3 years for MSU.
Baker - Yes, for one year.
Barrent - No, due to injury
Caper - No, injuries
Gainer - No
Klatt - No
Maxwell - Not yet
Norman - Yes. Fairly solid 3.5 year starter.
Sims - Yes in talent, but not really due to health/legal issues
Spencer - No
Treadwell - Not really but he was pretty good last year when healthy
Allen - Bump up to a 4
Conway - No
Dixon - No
Drone - Pretty solid rotation guy. Yes.
Fowler - Not really, but I guess he did start for a whole year.
France - Yes, two years starting OT
Hammock - Not really
J. Jones - Yes
Reynolds - Yes, despite constant shuffling
White - No
Freeman - No
Hoebing - No
Muma - Scholarship kicker relegated to only kickoffs? No.
Did he ever land anywhere after he left MSU?
tRCMB - Visit at your own risk of being disgusted.
I'd give Hammock a low 3-star rating for special teams, fullback and back-up LB work for 3 solid seasons.
Fowler could stay the same (5.6 3-star) or move up/down a level depending on his SR year. If he turns in a 65 catch, 1100 yard, 10 TD year, I think a lot of people would want him at a 4-star level . That's why you have to wait until their last year; BJ Cunningham did not have a 4-star career until his outstanding SR year.
I think he transferred to Western Michigan as a fullback. Don't quote me on that though.
Nicely done Rocky.
What jumped at me was, by and large, the star ratings are pretty accurate. Sure, they missed Jerel Worthy, K-Mart, and Fred Smith - but for the most part - they were correct.
Really? I kinda came to the opposite conclusion, though this class is difficult because of the high washout rate (Rather).
Overall, if you go by percent of each star thst ends up all conference, all american, or drafted the stsr system works.
All the star system is really more of a measure of probability. A four star guy has a higher probability of turning into a plus player than a two star guy. Sure you have your exceptions each way (4-star busts like Fred Smith and 2-star studs like Leveon Bell), but for the most part, yiur higher ranked recruits tend to become your higher quality players.
I think part of it is that you are not only looking at the # of Stars, but also the specific rating. Because the difference between a 5.5 and a 5.7 is so subjective in both cases (the initial rating and your revised rating), it can make it seem like almost all of the ratings were wrong because they were almost all revised. Also, if you look at someone like Steve Gardiner or Thomas Hammock, they're ratings were changed almost exclusively due to the fact that they weren't as good as Greg Jones or Max Bullough. If they had gone to Indiana and started for 2-3 years, then they're ratings may have been increased or kept the same.
Otherwise, I agree that the star system isn't very accurate for the following reasons:
1. It's not very difficult to identify the most physically gifted athletes by watching tape, seeing them at camps, etc. Those guys are going to be 5-stars and have the best shot at ultimately making it to the NFL (which is the ridiculous goal of the star system).
2. Ratings change constantly, often in response to camp performances. So, if you are a workout warrior or can't afford to go to camps, the system may either overrate you or underrate you.
3. As much as they'll deny it, ratings are subject to being manipulated in order to make more money. These aren't non-profits, these sites are trying to get subscribers.
4. If a 5-star doesn't make it to the NFL, then the rating was wrong. If a 4-star doesn't become an all-conference players, then the rating is wrong. If a 2 or 3-star does make it to the NFL, then the rating was wrong. So, overall, a majority of the ratings are going to be wrong.
What am I missing here? What's the point of re-ranking MSU's class in relation to other schools if you don't do the analysis of the other schools too? Seems you're looking at all the flaws/non-contributors for MSU, ignoring the same things that happen at all other programs, then penalizing MSU via a lower ranking.
My conclusion is based on out of 22 players, only 2 lower-ranked guys became high-level B1G players: Trent Robinson and Jerel Worthy. Correct?
Other than that, we saw some minor tweaking of role players.
This 3* played like a 2*
This 2* played like a 2*
And so on...
As you mention, you have the "Rather Factor" to consider.
You're right and I made an edit to my conclusion above. From now on, I'm going to look at whether kids met, exceeded or underperformed relative to their recruiting rankings and see whether or not a class was over or under-rated.
For 2008, there were a handful of studs that the recruiting services missed, but most of the guys projected to be solid players ended up washing out of the program. It's actually pretty surprising that MSU had success in 2010 and 2011, given that 2008 should have been an integral part of the 2-deep.
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