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IMHO the positive difference between any two seeds is never greater than the difference between the 3 and the 4. Namely, in the S16 you're playing, at worst, a top 8 team, where you're likely playing a top 4 team in the S16.
You can see this in the PASE difference between 5 and 6 seeds. Even though 5 seeds have an easier time in the first and 2nd rounds, historically 5 seeds not only fall prey to the 5/12 upset, but also to being in the top half of the bracket, while 6 seeds get to make noise in the bottom half. 5 seeds win 1.17 games, while 6 seeds win 1.26 games.
Moreover, there's a locational advantage this year for a top 3 or 4 seed. I think at this point there are generally 12 teams that most would agree are the best in the nation. In no particular order:
Syracuse, Louisville, UF, Miami, Duke, IU, O$U, scUM, MSU, KU, Zona, Zaga. The committee assigns pods close to the top seeded teams. We want to get the Auburn Hills regional, or failing that, Dayton. Getting in the top 12 would almost guarantee Detroit. However, if we fall to a 4 seed, then we have to start competing with other teams for a possible game in Detroit. Lock up a 3 seed, and there aren't any teams closer to Detroit than us (IU and O$U would likely go to Dayton, or maybe Lexington).
I am posting this today because it was yet another rash of upsets of middle T25 teams (Wichita State, NCSU, Oregon, and SDSU). If those teams continue to lose, the gap gets larger between the 'haves' (top 3 seeds aka top 12) and the have notes (the 4-16 seeds).
Bottom line, we're not only looking at catching the teams in front of us, but distancing the teams behind us.
Syracuse losing today may also prove to be helpful in staying solidly in a 3 seed or better.
Obviously, we still have 6+ weeks to selection Sunday, but Cuse losing helps push us towards the 2 seed. I don't think we'll be lucky enough to have Cuse dropping out of that T12 area, but every loss in the T12 helps us move towards the 2 or 1 line.
The Big East teams are beating up on each other, which is good for us. We need their top dogs to lose as much as possible because historically they seem to get good seeds.
"RCMB: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainry." - some dude from MgoBlog
I think they were given the benefit of the doubt after the Villanova loss, but two in a row to non-ranked teams I think will drop them about that low. Either way, still a lot of games left.
Good post and points.
You have to think that top b1g teams will be in very good positions with committee.
All interesting, but if your'e looking to make the Final Four the biggest gap is between 1 seed and 2 seed, and between 6 seed and 7 seed. The basic concept is close to what you're addressing though: you want to avoid being in the 1-seed half of the regional unless you're a 1-seed, and you want to avoid being in the same quarter as a 2-seed unless you're the 2.
So being a 4,5,7,8 are bad. Of course the Villanova championship was the one huge exception.
Considering the chances O$U blew this week, and the continual separation of the top teams from the middle ranked teams, I think O$U has dropped from one of those top 3 seed lines, and we're down to 11. If you look at the bracket matrix, MSU is 11 on the S-Curve, and there's a full 3/4 of an average seed difference between us and the last 3 seed (New Mexico).
So, we're down to Louisville, Cuse, IU, MSU, scUM, UF, Duke, Miami, KU, Zona, and Zaga competing for the top 2 seed lines.
IIRC, Auburn Hills will host the #1 and #3 seeds from different regions. If we don't move up to a #1 seed (which is entirely possible), we might rather be a #3 than a #2. Not sure who Dayton hosts, maybe it's not such a big deal.
I'm more concerned about the matchups. Teams like Kentucky, UNC or Creighton, despite having quite a few losses could all of a sudden get their shit together, and be a horribly tough #8 seed, or whatever they end up.
The NCAA selection committee, as opposed to the AP, has generally been favorable toward us because of our tournament history and strength of schedule. I think the odds of us getting a 3 seed or higher are pretty good. We have so many games against good teams left though, it's kind of pointless to worry about what everyone else is doing.
its a given that should UNC make the tourney, they will be seeded in the same bracket as MSU. my prediction would be #2 MSU vs. #7/10 UNC.
i only care about spartans --> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqsAJQc-NCY
If Michigan and State are both 1 seeds, they will both play in Auburn Hills.
12177 Post before moving here. 10/29/11 will live forever in our hearts (plus 50 votes in the last 3 hours)
The pod system allows any two higher ranked teams to play at the same pod.
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