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BPI and a few versions of RPI aren't bad, but in a performance based sport you can't have a computer poll that doesn't involve trending. Recent performance has to mean more than previous or it's totally inaccurate. Also low turnover/highly efficient offenses are far too overvalued in kenpom. One only needs to look at Wisconsin and West Virginia's historical rankings. Efficiency means very little when it comes down to who wins. Talent has a lot more to do with it.
I don't really think any computer polls should have a say but I also think that coaches shouldn't have a say either. The only people that should vote are media members and it should be a lot more than have votes now.
Many, possible even most analysts consider the KenPom to be one of the most respected forecasting tools out there. I'm not sure why its so hated here, other than it overranks Wisconsin consistently, which he has acknowledged. It's historically been kind to MSU. It has us ranked #1 for a while last year and #3 at the end of the season. He was right about how underranked the 2005 Spartans were.
I don't think people need to get upset about his predictions going forward. UM and IU are incredibly efficient teams. If anybody thinks we are going to have it easy against either team just because we are at home, they are kidding themselves.
Here is one system: learn the game , and observe the game. He is to basketball what Law is to baseball. NOT MUCH.
This is a funny post. He is only respected by nerds that love statistics. Any people that know the game, played the game, coached the game, etc think the nerds of his ilk, give the game a bad name.
Isn't the great thing about college basketball is that it plays itself out? You actually give very little power to the turds that run the polls since 65 teams play it out in March? I don't understand why people subscribe to all these polls that don't mean shit .
Because some of those ranking systems make your route harder/easier to finish it off. If a poll discounts MSU and pushes us out of the Midwest it could mean the difference between a final four and a 2nd weekend exit.
Certainly you control your own destiny but things could have been drastically different if MSU wasn't playing Syracuse and Iowa State in Auburn Hills in 2000. Seeding matters much more than any ranking or computer poll ever will.
For example Brad Stevens and Coach K? (They have both been reported to use the data on KenPom.com in their scouting/prep work)
Draymond Green, Magic Johnson, and Oscar Robertson are the only players to have two triple-doubles in the NCAA Tournament.
No but you do love your sweeping generalizations and are quick to jump into every thread that has numbers to try and discount them. I am a stat nerd and I love the game, played the game, coached the game. I don't see any reason why it can't be both. Jay Bilas agrees. Brad Stevens agrees. There are tons of articles and tweets out there by people who actually played and coached the game who really like his stuff. I'm actual more neutral on him, but I like looking at the data.
They use some of the metrics he does, like points per possession or adjusted FG%. Not his rankings or predictions.
Anyone. Anyplace. Anytime.
I look at the data, but his overall rankings are worthless. Wisconsin has been top 10 5 out of the last 10 years under his ranking system. The stats are very telling, the overall rankings, not so much.
Bozo was trying to discredit Ken Pomeroy the person. He said that Ken Pomeroy is only respected by nerds that love statistics." and that "people that know the game, played the game, coached the game" think that Ken Pomeroy gives the game a "bad name".
And bozo is full of it.
For anyone that want to find a computer rating system that suits their personal tastes, I recommend you look here:
Some of the lesser-know but well-respected ones are:
Somewhere out on the web there is a site that tracks predication accuracy of several computer rankings. I have it bookmarked at home. If y'all are interested, I'll post the link later.
How so? Don't discredit my analysis while celebrating the nerd's.
If you are what you describe, then you would know the best data is the kind that caters to your teams' strengths and weaknesses. These generalized polls/formulas etc, are pure filler. And if the snowjob is the kind of data you like, spend your $$$. I'd rather spend it on toilet paper and onion rings.
Hindsight is much like these polls. Worthless. MSU wins in 2000 where ever they play. Care to discredit that?
Have Coach K and Brad Stevens played, coached, and/or known the game of basketball?
Make a statement with no possible way to prove/disprove it..... Ask someone to discredit it... Lol
As stated earlier, I believe they take samples that cater to their prospective teams. Most coaches do. However, stating its all Pomeroy formulas is pure hilarity. The only coach that would take his formula to heart, and use it all , would be Bo Ryan.
Bingo. Just followed the lead given. I find it disgusting that someone would discredit that teams' path.
I have monitored the Vegas lines for big ten games over the last 5 years and they have basically converged to kenpom's projection (unless case of injury, etc). Vegas knows how to make money, that's gotta give some validity to his model.
So your objection now is only to the KenPom ranking, and not to Ken Pomeroy or his analysis? You are changing your tune.
Team ratings, rankings, and polls are for fans, not coaches.
Of course none of them use it the forecasting part of it. But they use the data. That is why people like him, he gets good numbers and puts them in an easy to use format. You said he and those of his ilk give the game a bad name, which is completely untrue.
There really isn't any problem with any of the algorithms as long as you accept that they all are based on limited or unbalanced data. Few account for which players may have missed a game, and none account for development of a player as the season progresses. The same goes for playing a well rested team on short rest, and vice versa. Those factors are all legit. Also, if you read any national msg boards (or the article about Izzo's "day in the life" when he went to Chicago), everyone except for IU fans think that we got hosed by the officiating in Bloomington.
So, garbage in, garbage out. It doesn't mean there is no value at all in them, but some teams will be overrated, and some underrated. Wisconsin tends to be perenially overrated, but as KenPom says, it will always be that way unless they get a new coach, or he just runs his system for 344 teams, and then manually places Wiscy somewhere more deserving, which then negates the arbitrary measure that algorithms are designed to bring.
Yes, please post.
I've always thought the Sagarin "predictor" numbers were as accurate as any, and his formula is very simple. Margin of victory, 25-50-25 split for w/l, opps' w/l, and opps' opps' w/l.
So if KenPom predictor numbers have been so good, then why doesn't Wisconsin beat the spread on a regular basis?
kenpom hates MSU because it factors in students who wear costumes to games and old people who don't stand and cheer. however, we do get a bump in internet message boarding.
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