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SpartanRocky
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RPMadMSU said...
We had this discussion in length last summer so I'm not going to post a long response. But the current system based on perception, reputation and tradition makes it nearly impossible for 90% of all FBS programs to even make a final regardless of how good a team may or may not be. MSU is in that 90%. Even if a team like MSU last year wet undefeated it would've been almost impossible for them to go to the MNC. Naive/Ignorant voters or some strange computer calculation that takes pervious years results into consideration would have found away to get the matchup that we had.
The system is flawed, and does not do anything but protect matchups tv exexcutives think we want to see. Because that's what I believe, I don't care to participate in it until it is fixed.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
That's all well and good from a philosophical point of view, but I'd rather not see MSU take that approach. FWIW, there's going to be a small play-off starting in the next few years anyways.
I do believe that an undefeated MSU in 2011 would have played for the NC, if the rest of the season played out as it did. You know the formula: 0 L teams are put in front of 1L teams, etc. There was only 1 undefeated team last year (LSU) going into the NC game. If MSU was also undefeated, I have a hard time believing they would not be ranked #2.
Sadly, perception matters, and there's a difference between going 10-2 vs. 9-3, or 9-3 instead of 8-4. MSU has finished the year ranked the past 2 years, and will start the 2012 season ranked somewhere in the top 20. That's a benefit conferred based on past performance, moving MSU closer to that 10% than 90% category. It's much easier to stay ranked, and therefore improve in the rankings, when you start the year ranked. All you have to do is keep winning games, and the voters will move you up automatically as teams in front of you lose.
Do I like that? No. Is it reality? Yep.
In that context, the risk of an L outweighs the reward of winning a big OOC game. This isn't basketball, where RPI matters and there's a tourney at the end. I'd prefer MSU maximize it's potential to win a N.C. under whatever rules are applicable. That means going undefeated, in this current climate. To me, that means an OOC that prepares MSU for the Big 10, with moderate to low risk of getting an L.
Many folks disparage Wisky's non-conf. schedule (rightfully so), but the fact remains that just about everyone felt that an undefeated UW team plays LSU for the NC last year. No one really cares about OOC SOS, from a polls perspective, as long as you start the year ranked and don't lose.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by RPMadMSU on 5/7/2012 at 11:29 AM
RPMadMSU
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SpartanRocky said...
That's all well and good from a philosophical point of view, but I'd rather not see MSU take that approach. FWIW, there's going to be a small play-off starting in the next few years anyways.
I do believe that an undefeated MSU in 2011 would have played for the NC, if the rest of the season played out as it did. You know the formula: 0 L teams are put in front of 1L teams, etc. There was only 1 undefeated team last year (LSU) going into the NC game. If MSU was also undefeated, I have a hard time believing they would not be ranked #2.
Sadly, perception matters, and there's a difference between going 10-2 vs. 9-3, or 9-3 instead of 8-4. MSU has finished the year ranked the past 2 years, and will start the 2012 season ranked somewhere in the top 20. That's a benefit conferred based on past performance, moving MSU closer to that 10% than 90% category. It's much easier to stay ranked, and therefore improve in the rankings, when you start the year ranked. All you have to do is keep winning games, and the voters will move you up automatically as teams in front of you lose.
Do I like that? No. Is it reality? Yep.
In that context, the risk of an L outweighs the reward of winning a big OOC game. This isn't basketball, where RPI matters and there's a tourney at the end. I'd prefer MSU maximize it's potential to win a N.C. under whatever rules are applicable. That means going undefeated, in this current climate. To me, that means an OOC that prepares MSU for the Big 10, with moderate to low risk of getting an L.
Many folks disparage Wisky's non-conf. schedule (rightfully so), but the fact remains that just about everyone felt that an undefeated UW team plays LSU for the NC last year. No one really cares about OOC SOS, from a polls perspective, as long as you start the year ranked and don't lose.
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82msuspartan said...
I would say there is no penalty for playing a weak non conference schedule. Wisc and K St have been doing it for years and have built their programs reputations on those weak non conference schedule. Last year we really accomplished very little in the non conference season but it did not hurt our team or perceptions. When you look at it YSU, CMU and FAU were all pretty weak opponents and we did as we were supposed to do by winning those games. Even though we played one of our worst games of the season against ND in the end we came out of the non conf schedule pretty good poll wise and perception wise. So until they start penalizing teams for weak non conference scheds I see no reason to playing tougher non conf games. ND is enough for me. Play 3 light games to build depth and establish poll position going into the B1G. That formula worked well in 2010 and 2011.
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by lars on 5/7/2012 at 11:44 AM
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RPMadMSU
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lars said...
I agree. ND plays a four or five tough games during a season and the rest are pansies. Yet they have built a reputation that continues today even after a decade of mediocre seasons. We should be looking to build a long record of winning before we say bring em on to the likes of Alabama and Oregon.
I remember the 1987 and it was always embarrassing getting smacked down on a national stage by ND(31-8) or Fl St (31-3) at home early in the season. We became all be irrelevant after that. Even with the rose bowl win. Having early embarrassing losses tainted the image of some good teams and some great players like Lo. White.
Play ND or another similar team plus 3 easy wins.
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SpartanRocky said...
That's all well and good from a philosophical point of view, but I'd rather not see MSU take that approach. FWIW, there's going to be a small play-off starting in the next few years anyways.
I do believe that an undefeated MSU in 2011 would have played for the NC, if the rest of the season played out as it did. You know the formula: 0 L teams are put in front of 1L teams, etc. There was only 1 undefeated team last year (LSU) going into the NC game. If MSU was also undefeated, I have a hard time believing they would not be ranked #2.
Sadly, perception matters, and there's a difference between going 10-2 vs. 9-3, or 9-3 instead of 8-4. MSU has finished the year ranked the past 2 years, and will start the 2012 season ranked somewhere in the top 20. That's a benefit conferred based on past performance, moving MSU closer to that 10% than 90% category. It's much easier to stay ranked, and therefore improve in the rankings, when you start the year ranked. All you have to do is keep winning games, and the voters will move you up automatically as teams in front of you lose.
Do I like that? No. Is it reality? Yep.
In that context, the risk of an L outweighs the reward of winning a big OOC game. This isn't basketball, where RPI matters and there's a tourney at the end. I'd prefer MSU maximize it's potential to win a N.C. under whatever rules are applicable. That means going undefeated, in this current climate. To me, that means an OOC that prepares MSU for the Big 10, with moderate to low risk of getting an L.
Many folks disparage Wisky's non-conf. schedule (rightfully so), but the fact remains that just about everyone felt that an undefeated UW team plays LSU for the NC last year. No one really cares about OOC SOS, from a polls perspective, as long as you start the year ranked and don't lose.
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82msuspartan said...
I would say there is no penalty for playing a weak non conference schedule. Wisc and K St have been doing it for years and have built their programs reputations on those weak non conference schedule. Last year we really accomplished very little in the non conference season but it did not hurt our team or perceptions. When you look at it YSU, CMU and FAU were all pretty weak opponents and we did as we were supposed to do by winning those games. Even though we played one of our worst games of the season against ND in the end we came out of the non conf schedule pretty good poll wise and perception wise. So until they start penalizing teams for weak non conference scheds I see no reason to playing tougher non conf games. ND is enough for me. Play 3 light games to build depth and establish poll position going into the B1G. That formula worked well in 2010 and 2011.
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lars said...
I agree. ND plays a four or five tough games during a season and the rest are pansies. Yet they have built a reputation that continues today even after a decade of mediocre seasons. We should be looking to build a long record of winning before we say bring em on to the likes of Alabama and Oregon.
I remember the 1987 and it was always embarrassing getting smacked down on a national stage by ND(31-8) or Fl St (31-3) at home early in the season. We became all be irrelevant after that. Even with the rose bowl win. Having early embarrassing losses tainted the image of some good teams and some great players like Lo. White.
Play ND or another similar team plus 3 easy wins.
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blanch32 said...
Im sick of people trumping up the wisconsin example. Look, for as wk as their schedule is, are they still playing in natty championship gm? Winning rose bowls? Hell, getting bcs at lg selections?
Sorry folks, but that strat has tapped that program out, and I only expect them to fall from here. Hell, nds been following that same plan for a decade now and they still suck. Plus, its much better for dantonio to tell recruits the dennard story. Freshman thrown into the big time due to injury, and 2 picks in the cap bowl a yr later. Doubtful this would have happened if we feast on cupcakes.
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Tupes said...
Rocky, I think I've been on the same side of every issue with you so far...until now. :)
Assume we just swap out a FAU laugher for an Alabama or Oregon-type game each year. Just one game. And even assume for a minute that its an automatic loss (but I will assume now that it will be a very competitive game win or lose). I think it shakes out like this:
- OOC loss = zero negative impact on B1G season. Rose Bowl goal is not at all affected. A potential upside is that it gets the team a bit more ready for the B1G season. Playing FAU and Youngstown is worse than playing our scout team.
- Marquis matchup early in the year is a guaranteed Gameday event with national coverage. I assume national exposure sells to recruits -- not just fans. Telling recruits we've got FAU and Youngstown state on the docket probably doesn't excite too much.
- An EARLY season loss (esp. to a good team) can be overcome in the final standings. Assume the OOC loss; but we win the B1G and go to the Rose Bowl. Everyone will have forgotten the loss, including the pollsters. Ok. State had a catastrophic loss to Iowa State last year but had a large number of people voting for their inclusion in the NC.
- We're not a major brand yet. As I said above, I liken us to a late-80s FSU trying to plant its flag in Florida which already had bigger programs to contend with. We need to do some aggressive things -- just sticking with the same old plan (e.g., play watered-down ND + a bunch of who-dats) won't suddenly give us national respect. It never has before, why would it change now?
I fully acknowledge contrary arguments; there is a lot of sense in considering a ND + creampuff / regional MAC OOC schedule. I just think Hollis is right to think nothing will change unless we attack things aggressively, and that means playing on a national stage as often as we can. Recruits are fans too, and this can only help (caveat: so long as we are competitive with these teams and win at least half the time, and I'm confident that MD has us at that point).
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Diodotus said...
but Rocky, if you're counting on an undefeated season to get us where we want to go, we should have an objective look at how often that happens. When did a B1G team go undefeated? Maybe OSU in 2002? I'd take it when it happens, but it is EXTREMELY difficult to go undefeated overall or even just in the conference slate, and that was before the championship game.
How did LSU get to the championship game this year? Perceived strength of schedule, not a perfect record. So playing and beating more tough teams is an advantage.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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blanch32 said...
Conversely. Id argue the only reason we lost that nd gm was bc fl atl and young st flat out did not have us prepared.
Look, last and 1999 are perfect examples of why we need to play in bigger gms. Despite dominating uofm both times and ending w the same record, we got passed over. Why? Perception. Only way we can change that is to do it on the field. Idaho state ain't going to cut it.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
LSU got to the NC game by being the only undefeated BCS conf. team. Are you talking about Alabama? Their best win was against PSU OOC, and it was cream puffs other than that.
Can someone point out an undefeated BCS conf. team that was excluded from the NC, when the NC had at least one participant with 1 L? There are several years where an undefeated BCS conf. team was excluded in favor of 2 other undefeated BCS conf. teams, but I can't recall a year where an undefeated BCS conf. team was excluded from the N.C. game in favor of a 1 L BCS conf. team.
This post was edited by Diodotus on 5/7/2012 at 12:32 PM
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Do you want a very tough FB schedule?