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Facebook IPO: Your thoughts?

  • when is tRCMB gonna be an IPO? I'd buy that in a heartbeat

    This post was edited by spartan719 on 2/2/2012 at 1:48 AM

    spartan719

  • NGE said...

    Facebook is like a drug for some people. Seriously, I know some chicks that would probably go into suicide watch if they lost their Facebook and/or Smartphone. A few dudes too. Always hear the same lame excuses too, "I hate it but I like to keep up with friends and long distance family blah blah blah.."

    I call bullshit, there is no way you can tell me with a straight face that Facebook is the one, important thread that is keeping your relationships alive. Lets get real, people love Facebook because they love to creep.

    I gotta admit, I am one of the dudes your described. I complain about it yet I find myself checking it multiple times a day.

    Zombie

  • Batesianmimicry said...

    At some point, people will start realizing that no one clicks on facebook ads. Then facebook will find a way to integrate it better, or they won't have revenue.

    just bought a facebook ad for my company last week... and I beg to differ.

    signature image

    Dr Leo Spaceman

  • Btothejizer said...

    ... but people are flocking there like sheep.

    Which is usually the beginning of the end for trendy Internet properties.

    Don't post poop!

    SeeRockCity

  • Like all IPOs, you'd be stupid to buy this on day one. This goes double for a high-profile IPO like Facebook. Wait a few weeks for the excitement to shake out if you want to make some money.

    Mid term, you can make some money off of Facebook stock probably. They have the business model and user numbers to support a good deal of profit for a while. However, I would never stick around a company that has one source of revenue, especially a tech company, double especially for a consumer-oriented tech company. It's just too easy for someone to displace you, or for your "customers" to find something better to do. You look at a company like Microsoft, or Apple, or even Google, and they have so many different products; Xbox gets passed by Sony, Microsoft is still fine. People stop buying the iPod Nano, Apple is still fine. People don't use Google Wave, Google is still fine. People don't use Facebook...?

    So bottom line, you can expect to make some money in the short term on Facebook if you're patient, do your research, and play your cards right. I'd never stick around with them though, because I think peoples' use of Facebook is going to look drastically different in the next few years.

    EDIT: I forgot to note, Mark Zuckerberg is shady as hell. He's extremely smart and savvy, but he's shady. I have no doubt that he timed this IPO perfectly to maximize profits...for him. He knew two years ago that if he held on, he could ride the trend and increase the IPO 10-20 times higher. That's huge for someone who owns a significant share of the company. So he'll cash this in, make his bank, and move on. I'd be surprised if he's even running the show in 2-3 years.

    This post was edited by hexydes on 2/2/2012 at 6:40 AM

    hexydes

  • Too much like a Dotcom bubble. Go short.

    This post was edited by Frank Ricard on 2/2/2012 at 6:39 AM

    Frank Ricard

  • NGE said...

    Facebook is like a drug for some people. Seriously, I know some chicks that would probably go into suicide watch if they lost their Facebook and/or Smartphone. A few dudes too. Always hear the same lame excuses too, "I hate it but I like to keep up with friends and long distance family blah blah blah.."

    I call bullshit, there is no way you can tell me with a straight face that Facebook is the one, important thread that is keeping your relationships alive. Lets get real, people love Facebook because they love to creep.


    I remember when it first came out and you still had to have a .edu email address. My roommates would creep for hours and I was always like... this is cultish.

    I still have it but I go on about once a day on my phone, see that what everyone said was not worthwhile then close the app. I've never once clicked on an ad or played farmville or any of that.

    The reason I keep facebook is for pictures as I like it as a photo album but linked to people. I could go in and save each photo to my computer I suppose, but I do have one other guilty pleasure in that I love dropping knowledge on walverines.

    Le Flama Blanca

  • I am staying away. They cannot possibly grow much more.

    signature image

    TheBlitzIsOn

  • 2TimeSpartan said...

    If the IPO comes out and the market cap turns out to be $100-$150 Billion (haven't seen them in a while, but this was the range of FB's IPO estimates last time I checked), I'm going to liquidate some assets and buy puts. You would figure that FB has to make $8B-$10B in perpetuity (with growth to account for inflation) in order for it to be valued at that level.

    It's gonna be the next Groupon. You start digging into their books and everything is ass backwards.

    How exactly do puts work? I've heard a lot about them, but never actually taken the time to learn exactly what they are.

    WinnipegSpartan

  • 2TimeSpartan said...

    If the IPO comes out and the market cap turns out to be $100-$150 Billion (haven't seen them in a while, but this was the range of FB's IPO estimates last time I checked), I'm going to liquidate some assets and buy puts. You would figure that FB has to make $8B-$10B in perpetuity (with growth to account for inflation) in order for it to be valued at that level.

    It's gonna be the next Groupon. You start digging into their books and everything is ass backwards.

    Groupon's IPO was a mess, but the stock has been doing well over the last 1-2 months. (Up 20% since Jan 1)

    Facebook has some unique qualities that make it intriguing.

    They have a massive loyal user base with tons of page views per day, and those users provide them with tons of highly personalized data, allowing very specifically targeted advertising.

    I think there is still a big untapped market for older users, and overseas growth. And, it's not like people quit facebook. Even people who rarely post stuff on facebook are still visiting the site on a regular basis. It is integrated into all kinds of different websites now too.

    If/when ad revenues start slowing down, they are sitting on a gold mine of user data that can be sold.

    Phil McCrackin ●

  • ICQ, AIM/AOL ... Geocities ... every fad dwindles. Overvalued though I see investors bailing early making a quick buck.

    I've lost interest in it. It will probably hold on to the 16-24 year old women demographic for a while but that's not the rich 40 year olds advertising market.

    Google+ i ignore but Googletalk and skype are the popular messengers.

    This post was edited by Foxbat on 2/2/2012 at 10:26 AM

    Foxbat

  • Foxbat said...

    ICQ, AIM/AOL ... Geocities ... every fad dwindles. Overvalued though I see investors bailing early making a quick buck.

    I've lost interest in it. It will probably hold on to the 16-24 year old women demographic for a while but that's not the rich 40 year olds advertising market.

    The thing about that......

    16-24 yr old women end up deciding where a lot of the rich 40 year old mens' disposable spending goes.

    WinnipegSpartan

  • Facebook cannot grow fast enough over the next decade to justify the stock price. Definitely NOT a long term investment. I know this stuff inside and out...

    (because that's what NPR told me).

    hammacks

  • Facebook's IPO will re-ignite the digital sharecropping debate.

    tRCMB's Top 5 Worst Posters Power Rankings: #1 Nucky, #2 The Doctor, #3 Brodson, #4 Ghost, #5 Blanch

    Vim

  • Batesianmimicry said...

    At some point, people will start realizing that no one clicks on facebook ads. Then facebook will find a way to integrate it better, or they won't have revenue.

    No ad revenue from mobile. Chew on that one

    Narwhal ●

  • Do not buy!!! Their accumulation of new accounts is slowing and this is a business that needs extreme growth to demand the EPS that they expect. Not only that, current users are spending less time on the site than they did last year. They don't need cash, they have plenty - so the IPO is perplexing - but for one glaring thing - management realizes they need to monetize the value now as the business model is hitting its peak. Smart money is getting out by monetizing the company. Lemmings will be buying this eventual Titanic. You won't be getting dividends here so your only possibility of gain is if some other knucklehead chooses to buy it for more than you did. Once this IPO uphoria dies, so too will this investment. Don't walk away from this. Run away.

    Tony Clifton

  • Tony Clifton said...

    Do not buy!!! Their accumulation of new accounts is slowing and this is a business that needs extreme growth to demand the EPS that they expect. Not only that, current users are spending less time on the site than they did last year. They don't need cash, they have plenty - so the IPO is perplexing - but for one glaring thing - management realizes they need to monetize the value now as the business model is hitting its peak. Smart money is getting out by monetizing the company. Lemmings will be buying this eventual Titanic. You won't be getting dividends here so your only possibility of gain is if some other knucklehead chooses to buy it for more than you did. Once this IPO uphoria dies, so too will this investment. Don't walk away from this. Run away.

    Or make money watching the Titanic go down. Short or buy puts.

    Frank Ricard

  • Narwhal said...

    No ad revenue from mobile. Chew on that one

    No ad revenue from users who use 3rd party software like Tweetdeck, Flipboard, Hootsuite, etc either. The more people shift to mobile and third party software, the worse the ad revenue will become.

    I think the real value for Facebook is the gobs of highly detailed user data they are sitting on. Facebook can target ads better than anyone, and they can sell that data if they want.

    Phil McCrackin ●

  • That fat bitch Tina is going to be all over this IPO.

    BoilerRoom ●

  • Big Nips said...

    May 18 is the date. Anyone planning on buying?

    Short answer no. Longer answer...Aswath Damodaran a valuation expert has made a case for a market capitalization/value in the 70-80 billion range and the IPO I think is assuming a value in the 100 billion range. Morever, Mark Zuckerburg has stated that he retains virtually all control over the company...not a good situation to have all the risk and none of the power associated with a company. I would not be surprised to see some irrational exuberance that drives the price up for a time...but if I want to gamble i will go to the casino. If i want to invest there are some better places for my capital.

    biologos

  • I think Twitter has the best prospects of any social media. Look at just every sports journalist who uses it, not to mention celebrities and news services and TV shows and athletes. It is also used by many businesses and has transformed news in the sense that people get it instantly and can communicate with others instantly.

    Facebook blows balls nowadays and I hope it dies a fiery death sooner than later. And to all the people who click the ads and give Facebook money: you're all morans.

    What is that, a Titleist? A hole in one...

    Cosmo_Kramer ●

  • Big Nips said...

    The data mining capabilities of Facebook are virtually unmatched though. I agree with above that $100m is a high valuation and I may wait to see it lowered before buying, but the future uses of Facebook are very far reaching. The actual user interface will only be a small portion of their growth.

    But like many things that get popular seemingly overnight, the novelty wears off. It happened with Pokemon and pet rocks and Tamagotchi's and beanie babies. Things don't last forever, just ask Myspace.

    What is that, a Titleist? A hole in one...

    Cosmo_Kramer ●

  • WinnipegSpartan said...

    So Facebook filed the paperwork for its IPO today, with a projected initial price of $34-40 per share. I'm currently mulling over a decision whether to buy at the beginning. Although I've largely been investing in high yield securities lately, I'm thinking it hasn't really even scratched the surface of its capabilities as a company, and could potentially be a "Google-lite" type of data collection service.

    As with all financial matters, what better of a place is there than tRCMB to come for advice? What say you, Spartan investment gurus? Good buy, or the start of Internet bubble 2.0?

    I might take a fly on it at 34-40. Facebook has enormous amounts of user data that companies would die for. Want to send ads only to MSU grads? No problem, Want to send ads to people living in Austin, TX. You got it. They can target ads a lot better than most companies. Once they find more ways to monetize the user data, it will take off IMHO. As far as Groupon, I heard it was down to $10 a share from $20. I think they have some problems.

    bigwali

  • Haters gonna hate. Wise investors gonna invest. Apple and Google-like potential here. And unless you have an in on a large institutional buy, you most likely will not get in on this IPOD anyway. Demand will be huge.

    Spartans ...committed to bring Paul Bunyan home in 2013.

    DDRMSU

  • Cosmo_Kramer said...

    I think Twitter has the best prospects of any social media. Look at just every sports journalist who uses it, not to mention celebrities and news services and TV shows and athletes. It is also used by many businesses and has transformed news in the sense that people get it instantly and can communicate with others instantly.

    Facebook blows balls nowadays and I hope it dies a fiery death sooner than later. And to all the people who click the ads and give Facebook money: you're all morans.

    Twitter generates just a fraction of the revenue that Facebook generates.

    Almost no advertising on Twitter.

    Phil McCrackin ●

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