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Fantasy Football Draft Question/Strategy

  • bulldogg said...

    The only Qb I'd consider taking at 7 is Rodgers and he is likely not going to be there.

    My problem with that argument is who do you take in the middle of round 1, then? I'm just going to assume that Rodgers, Foster, Rice, and McCoy will be gone in any halfway decent league by the 7th pick. That leaves some combination of Brady, Chris Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Brees, Lynch, Fitzgerald (vomit), Forte, or Andre Johnson. If you put a gun to my head, the only running back that I would consider is taking Chris Johnson. I'd much rather take a Brady or Brees first knowing I can grab a guy like Charles, Murray, or Steven Jackson later on anyway. The dropoff between the top 4 or 5 QB's and everyone else is much higher than the difference between the 5th and 13th running back.

    sprtnbrn

  • sprtnbrn said...

    My problem with that argument is who do you take in the middle of round 1, then? I'm just going to assume that Rodgers, Foster, Rice, and McCoy will be gone in any halfway decent league by the 7th pick. That leaves some combination of Brady, Chris Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Brees, Lynch, Fitzgerald (vomit), Forte, or Andre Johnson. If you put a gun to my head, the only running back that I would consider is taking Chris Johnson. I'd much rather take a Brady or Brees first knowing I can grab a guy like Charles, Murray, or Steven Jackson later on anyway. The dropoff between the top 4 or 5 QB's and everyone else is much higher than the difference between the 5th and 13th running back.

    this is the conclusion that I came to yesterday

    We've got depth. We've got numbers.

    ninowesco

  • I drafted Brady in the first round this year. I feel dirty.

    ROtown Sparty

  • sprtnbrn said...

    My problem with that argument is who do you take in the middle of round 1, then? I'm just going to assume that Rodgers, Foster, Rice, and McCoy will be gone in any halfway decent league by the 7th pick. That leaves some combination of Brady, Chris Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Brees, Lynch, Fitzgerald (vomit), Forte, or Andre Johnson. If you put a gun to my head, the only running back that I would consider is taking Chris Johnson. I'd much rather take a Brady or Brees first knowing I can grab a guy like Charles, Murray, or Steven Jackson later on anyway. The dropoff between the top 4 or 5 QB's and everyone else is much higher than the difference between the 5th and 13th running back.

    The top 7 are Foster, Rice, McCoy, CJ2K, and DMC at RB, Rodgers at QB, and Calvin (not necessarily in that order). At 8, I may consider Brees/Brady, but at 7, you are guaranteed one if the other.

    bulldogg

  • And I completely disagree that there is a huge drop off after te first five QBs. Ryan, Eli, and Romo will put up good numbers and usually at least one if them will be around in the 3rd round.

    bulldogg

  • bulldogg said...

    The top 7 are Foster, Rice, McCoy, CJ2K, and DMC at RB, Rodgers at QB, and Calvin (not necessarily in that order). At 8, I may consider Brees/Brady, but at 7, you are guaranteed one if the other.

    Are we thinking of the same DMC because I wouldn't consider Darren McFadden in the first round and maybe not in the 2nd? Even when healthy, I just don't see him as that much better if at all than Steven Jackson, Murray, or Charles. If your argument is upside based, I'll take Charles who has fewer career carries a higher career YPC, and catches just as many passes.

    sprtnbrn

  • The top 6 in our league look to be going like this
    1 Rice
    2 Rodgers
    3 Foster
    4 Calvin Johnson
    5 McCoy
    6 Brees
    So at 7 it is either Brady or Chris Johnson. Leaning Brady based on our talk here.

    "This is the strangest life I've ever known" Jim Morrison (1943-1971)

    MrMojoRisin

  • The top 3 teams in both my leagues last year were the teams with Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. It's a new era in football and fantasy football as well. QB is the new RB. I have the 14/15 pick tonight and am basically considering myself screwed unless everybody else is stupid enough to pass on Cam Newton.

    Buzzer Beater

  • In our 10 team PPR, the draft started out with: Foster, Rice , Rodgers (my pick), and Calvin went 4th.

    Vegas Vic

  • sprtnbrn said...

    Are we thinking of the same DMC because I wouldn't consider Darren McFadden in the first round and maybe not in the 2nd? Even when healthy, I just don't see him as that much better if at all than Steven Jackson, Murray, or Charles. If your argument is upside based, I'll take Charles who has fewer career carries a higher career YPC, and catches just as many passes.

    No way. If healthy DMC is a top 5 if not top 2 or 3 back. Health is definitely a risk, but at 6 or 7, I take it.

    bulldogg

  • MrMojoRisin said...

    The top 6 in our league look to be going like this 1 Rice 2 Rodgers 3 Foster 4 Calvin Johnson 5 McCoy 6 Brees So at 7 it is either Brady or Chris Johnson. Leaning Brady based on our talk here.

    You have to take Brady if he is available. I think in that format he will be the highest point getter. Also, I think he is way safer than Chris Johnson because with Brady you know exactly what you're getting. With Johnson, not so much. I am a big believer in going safe early, risky late.

    Spartan Butters

  • Just for reference, the five highest scoring fantasy players last year under ESPN standard scoring (with 4 for passing td's) were all QB's. The gap between Stafford and Eli was 60 points (add another 24 point gain under the 6 vs 4 rule) and you have an 84 point difference between the two under your scoring system. The difference between the 1st and 6th running backs last year was 80 points.

    sprtnbrn

  • bulldogg said...

    No way. If healthy DMC is a top 5 if not top 2 or 3 back. Health is definitely a risk, but at 6 or 7, I take it.

    So you'd take him in front of Matt Forte who actually stays healthy or Jamaal Charles who has been better than McFadden when both are healthy? McFadden has had 1 year where he's even hit 1,000 yards and only 1 where he's hit double figures in TD's. I'm not even sure he's a top 10 running back. There are way too many red flags on McFadden when there are other guys who are just as likely to put up those kinds of numbers a round or two later.

    sprtnbrn

  • bulldogg said...

    Eli in the 2nd? No thanks. In a 12 teamer, 3rd/4th round.

    Agreed. For a 12 team PPR with 6 pts. per TD from the QB, I'd listen to arguments for any of the top 5 quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton) within the first two rounds. Stafford and Newton maybe round 2 only. But not a bad strategy at all, really.

    TravelinMan

  • TravelinMan said...

    Agreed. For a 12 team PPR with 6 pts. per TD from the QB, I'd listen to arguments for any of the top 5 quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton) within the first two rounds. Stafford and Newton maybe round 2 only. But not a bad strategy at all, really.

    Right. I have a draft Sunday that is exactly like this (12 teams, 6 points for passing TDs, PPR). If I cannot get Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Stafford in the first, my plan is to wait on QB and grab someone like Rivers, Romo or Ryan. On ESPN their ADP is 50- 61 (so early 4th to early 5th in 12 team leagues). I think that is a better value than using a 2nd or 3rd rounder on Newton, Vick and brothers Manning.

    Spartan Butters

  • bulldogg said...

    And I completely disagree that there is a huge drop off after te first five QBs. Ryan, Eli, and Romo will put up good numbers and usually at least one if them will be around in the 3rd round.

    While it's true that QB is technically deeper, the top three (or four if you want to include Stafford) are so much better than the next group, that even with the stats that Eli, Ryan, and Romo get you're going to be at a disadvantage. In terms of QB in fantasy this year, good to great play from those guys is the new mediocre.

    On_Wisconsin

  • MrMojoRisin said...

    Outside of Aaron Rodgers, would you take a QB in the 1st round? We are doing a 12 team PPR and this year QB passing TD's count for 6 points vs. the traditional 4. Picking at 7 good chance Brees or Brady is there. In the past I wait on taking a QB but last year it killed me with Cassel and Cutler as my QB's and then the waiver wire when they both got hurt. Would taking a QB in round 1 make sense now with the 6 points?

    If you want to win your league, draft a RB.
    If you don't want to win your league, draft a QB.

    Location: Mumbai, India

    sparty419

  • Just to give you an idea of what happened in the two leagues I had drafts in last weekend:

    League A (8 teams, .25 PPR, QB's get 4 points per TD + yard bonuses):
    1. Aaron Rodgers
    2. Arian Foster
    3. LeSean McCoy
    4. Calvin Johnson
    5. Tom Brady
    6. Ray Rice
    7. Drew Brees
    8. Matthew Stafford

    League B (12 teams, .25 PPR, QB's get 5 points per TD + yard bonuses

    1. Arian Foster
    2. Aaron Rodgers
    3. Drew Brees
    4. Tom Brady
    5. Ray Rice
    6. Calvin Johnson
    7. LeSean McCoy
    8. Chris Johnson
    9. Darren McFadden
    10. Larry Fitzgerald
    11. Matthew Stafford
    12. Cam Newton

    Phil McCrackin

  • sprtnbrn said...

    So you'd take him in front of Matt Forte who actually stays healthy or Jamaal Charles who has been better than McFadden when both are healthy? McFadden has had 1 year where he's even hit 1,000 yards and only 1 where he's hit double figures in TD's. I'm not even sure he's a top 10 running back. There are way too many red flags on McFadden when there are other guys who are just as likely to put up those kinds of numbers a round or two later.

    All. Day. Long.

    1) Forte stays healthy? Check again. Missed games last year. Forte also now has Michael Bush to steal carries away while DMC loses Bush. Also, Forte is just not as good as DMC.

    2) Charles? They came out today and said that he is splitting carries 50/50 with Hillis.

    bulldogg

  • sparty419 said...

    If you want to win your league, draft a RB. If you don't want to win your league, draft a QB.

    Bingo. Drafting a RB doesn't mean that you will win it, but it gives you a chance. You won't win a 12-team league drafting a QB there ... you'll end up with Kevin Smith as a starter at RB.

    All that said is assuming that your league is any good.

    bulldogg

  • Dammit ... 2nd league drafts in 20 mins. Just logged on and have the 8th pick of 10. Not where I wanted to be at all.

    bulldogg

  • DMC is the 6th ranked pick overall in the Yahoo lists ... I hope he falls to me at 8.

    I hope that one of my top 7 at least does.

    This post was edited by bulldogg on 8/30/2012 at 6:44 PM

    bulldogg

  • bulldogg said...

    Bingo. Drafting a RB doesn't mean that you will win it, but it gives you a chance. You won't win a 12-team league drafting a QB there ... you'll end up with Kevin Smith as a starter at RB.

    No you won't. I took Drew Brees in the first round with the 7th pick of a similar draft. Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round and Doug Martin in the 3rd.

    Would you really take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round?

    I used to be a RB/RB guy in the first two rounds. But with 6 pts per passing TD, the top 5 QB's are so much more valuable than the rest that you need to have one on your team. Last year I grabbed one in the 2nd round, but everyone seems to have caught on to their value now, so they won't last that long anymore.

    Papa Chubby

  • Papa Chubby said...

    No you won't. I took Drew Brees in the first round with the 7th pick of a similar draft. Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round and Doug Martin in the 3rd.

    Would you really take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round?

    I used to be a RB/RB guy in the first two rounds. But with 6 pts per passing TD, the top 5 QB's are so much more valuable than the rest that you need to have one on your team. Last year I grabbed one in the 2nd round, but everyone seems to have caught on to their value now, so they won't last that long anymore.

    No way would I take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round ... it was a sarcastic joke - kinda. But you need to start two RBs. Who is your other starter?

    bulldogg

  • Papa Chubby said...

    No you won't. I took Drew Brees in the first round with the 7th pick of a similar draft. Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round and Doug Martin in the 3rd.

    Would you really take Kevin Smith in the 3rd round?

    I used to be a RB/RB guy in the first two rounds. But with 6 pts per passing TD, the top 5 QB's are so much more valuable than the rest that you need to have one on your team. Last year I grabbed one in the 2nd round, but everyone seems to have caught on to their value now, so they won't last that long anymore.

    The ONLY way that I take Brees/Brady in the top 7 is if it is a two QB league. Then they are top 5 material.

    bulldogg

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