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Giant Moose said...
MSU will probably deserve to be ranked higher, but I can't really blame the voters if they leave us out of the Top 10. For the record, MSU football hasn't been ranked in the AP preseason Top 10 since 1979.
Here are all of MSU's preseason rankings (according to College Poll Archive):
2011: 17 2010: RV 2009: RV 2002: 18 2000: 25 1998: 23 1997: 25 1991: 20 1990: 23 1988: 15 1986: 20 1979: 10 1975: 12 1971: RV 1969: 12 1967: 3 1966: 2 1964: RV 1962: 4 1961: 6 1960: 8 1959: 19 1958: 4 1957: 3 1956: 2 1954: 6 1953: 2 1952: 1 1951: 2 1950: 19
http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/app_preseason_team.cfm?TeamID=113
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Spartan Punk said...
Hoyer to Cousins and Thomas to White are bad examples. We went from 9-4 to 6-7 after losing Hoyer and Thomas. That's the fall off I'm talking about, not talent level.
This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 5/15/2012 at 10:10 AM
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Johnny2x2x said...
Agreed.
Could you imagine where we'd be ranking if we were coming off the last 4 seasons Michigan had and we were rebuilding our D line and O line to some extent as well as WR and TE like they are? We'd be viewed as having one miracle season where we pulled out a couple of unlikely wins and really really overachieved. With the total lack of depth returning and a lousy passing QB, I doubt MSU would be ranked in the top 25 if we were returning the team and situation Michigan is. That team should not be sniffing the top 20 preseason much less top 10, and I know some realistic Michigan fans who agree with that.
Preseason rankings do matter, a higher preseason ranking last year and we'd likley have been ranked a few spots higher at the end of the year and have gotten a BCS Bowl game. We just have to keep winning.
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Sparty417 said...
am i the only one who hates the idea of this thread? just sounds like whining to me. if you win and are from a bcs conference, you will be ranked high 99% of the time. doesnt matter who you are, so to me, there is no reason to complain about it. just sounds like crying
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Sparty417 said...
am i the only one who hates the idea of this thread? just sounds like whining to me. if you win and are from a bcs conference, you will be ranked high 99% of the time. doesnt matter who you are, so to me, there is no reason to complain about it. just sounds like crying
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mentalstate
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InTenSity said...
So you didn't read through the whole OP then? Thanks for playing. I finished it by saying none of this really matters and with the schedule everything can be settled on teh field. You read into it what you wanted to, not what I was trying to say. I just think its interesting, a top 5 preseason isn't going to help much if we lose 3 games and miss the CCG. And not being in the top 25 isn't going to hurt too much if we go undefeated and win the CCG. And none of it matters if we lose 2 games and win the CCG, it is automatic Rose Bowl.
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mentalstate said...
Easy, I'll write the article:
2012 is shaping up to be a historic year for um. Despite losing an incredible senior class that set college football on fire, claimed the inaugural Legends division Championship, were a bad call away from a B10 title game victory and crushed SEC co-champs Georgia in their prestigious bowl game, um is set to be even better this year. Why? Because Hash Bash is about to become a regualr Saturday tradition with the bashing defense they return. Led by a D-coordinator so hot, he was offered more to coach a, SEC defense than most college coaches make a year, yet turned it down to come back to the defense he's spent the last 4 years forging in his fiery image, this defense returns 12 players with starting experience from the #6-overall defense in the nation last year. That ranking came despite playing arguably the toughest slate of top offenses and dynamic quarterbacks in the country. Led by at least 2 1st-round picks, including the nation's finest physical specimen, and perhaps the best Defensive End in um history, William Gholston (of NFL stock), this defense alone could win the majority of games on um's schedule, and spent the spring haunting the nightmares of O-coordinators throughout the country.
Fortunately, the D won't have to go at it a loan. um will once again be lead by an NFL-bound QB: introducing the heir to the NFL pipeline throne, Andrew Maxwell. An Elite 11 QB out of high school, Maxwell has been better-groomed for success than any of the 3 prior um QBs, all of whom now call the NFL home. For three years, he has been might Kirk Cousin's understudy, has worked exclusively with um's next bumper crop of NFL WRs and is ready to shine. Mature, intelligent, tall and with a cannon for an arm, one major difference between he and Cousins is that Maxwell is more athletic and adds a scrambling dimension to the O. Maxwell can rest well, however,knwoing that he'll be playing behind perhaps the most dominant offensive line in the B10, returning 4 starters, as well as a former starter coming back from injury. This huge line should dramatically effect the ground game as well, leading the way for the best RB tandem in the b10. Ring the Bell for Le'veon Bell, because he'll be ringing heads all season-when he's not busy leap-frogging them. This 237-pound RB harkens back to um's bruising heritage of running backs, such as Lorenzo White and TJ Duckett. ANd right behind him comes Larry Caper, the former #1 back who is finally back to being healthy and is poised to capitalize on his final season and re-gain his HS all-american status. Rounding out um's incredible arsenal of talent in Dion Sims, a man child playing tight end. Already bigger than most NFL TEs, he defies logic with his combination of size and speed, and should own the middle of the field all year.
This writer's prediction: Another perfect season for um, unless they play on a crowned field.
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Tremendous: The Inexperience Experiment
http://thisismichiganfootball.blogspot.com/2012/05/inexperience-experiment.html
thisismichiganfootball.blogspot.com And if those 2-star sleepers pan out? Well... Meh. [UPDATED: Now with MORE questionable math] | mgoblog
Do stars matter? I know, I know, not this shit again. But hear me out.
mgoblog.com Star Power: Judging the recruiting rankings, game by game - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF Blog - Yahoo! Sports
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DJNiteFlite said...
Gonna try to insert some fact into this highly subjective topic and I hope you guys don't flame me for it. Pre-season rankings are all perception, obviously, but they're more than just air. I might be going out on a limb, but I have to assume that recruiting rankings play a pretty big role in these polls. Given that assumption, I'm going to try to provide a reasonable explanation for why MSU doesn't "get love".
I think we can agree that MSU has been overachieving their perceived level of talent for the past two years. (#42 avg 2.7 * 2007 class, #47 avg 2.71 * '08, #17 3.3 * '09, #30 3.05 * '10) Whether due to early talent identification or player development, MSU has managed a 28-12 record over the past 3 seasons. Dr. Saturday proved once, and definitely not for all, that teams with higher ranked recruiting classes tend to beat teams with lower ranked ones. MSU bucked that trend hard the past two years, despite lacking a true rushing threat in the Big Ten. MSU sits on the chart as an outlier due to outstanding skill position play from Kirk Cousins.
MSU hasn't had a balanced attack since the 2008 season. Cousins passed for over 2,500 yards in every season as a starter. In 2009 and 2010, he did it without a true #1 target. He proved he could use whoever was available but really exploded as a senior with Cunningham ready to be the guy. Cousins was a true stud and now he is gone. Voters know how much of an asset Cousins was. A guy like him is not easily replaced.
Although Andrew Maxwell is talented and has spent multiple years under Dantonio, first year starting qbs are rarely ever put into a position to succeed immediately. Tremendous took a look at first year starter QBs and found that the successful ones were backed by a proven all-star supporting cast in all but one case. MSU doesn't have the kinds of playmakers necessary to coddle Maxwell into a 2,500 yard season. Chad Henne had 3 future NFL WRs in Edwards, Avant and Breaston and the best RB in the Big Ten in Mike Hart. MSU is depending on Deanthony Arnett to be a playmaker immediately in a new offense as a young player. I think that's far too much to ask considering that Cunningham's first 1000 yard season came as a senior with 3 tears of playing experience. Before Cunningham, MSU hadn't had a 1000 yd receiver in 4 years. The last was Devin Thomas, a JUCO transfer who only caught 6 passes in his first season.
Back to the stars. MGoBlog recently compiled data on all the FBS players drafted and their incoming rivals star rankings and found that two and three star players who were drafted into the NFL had a team win percentage of 52.3% and 62.9%, respectively, compared to 72.6% for 4 stars and 75.6% for 5 stars. Obvious point is obvious.... teams with higher ranked NFL caliber players win more games than teams who build NFL talent out of 2 and 3 stars. It's an easier task...
Although I won't disagree that MSU's juxtaposition with Michigan's reputation will always hurt them in the rankings, probability/statistics don't suggest that MSU deserves a higher ranking in the pre-season either. Historically, teams that lose their star offensive players and don't recruit especially well have a tough time winning ball games. If not for MSU's stout defense, they wouldn't make the list at all. AP voters are specifically instructed to vote based on performance. MSU's new offensive players don't have performance history to judge. I think it's that simple. How about you?
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DJNiteFlite said...
Gonna try to insert some fact into this highly subjective topic and I hope you guys don't flame me for it. Pre-season rankings are all perception, obviously, but they're more than just air. I might be going out on a limb, but I have to assume that recruiting rankings play a pretty big role in these polls. Given that assumption, I'm going to try to provide a reasonable explanation for why MSU doesn't "get love".
I think we can agree that MSU has been overachieving their perceived level of talent for the past two years. (#42 avg 2.7 * 2007 class, #47 avg 2.71 * '08, #17 3.3 * '09, #30 3.05 * '10) Whether due to early talent identification or player development, MSU has managed a 28-12 record over the past 3 seasons. Dr. Saturday proved once, and definitely not for all, that teams with higher ranked recruiting classes tend to beat teams with lower ranked ones. MSU bucked that trend hard the past two years, despite lacking a true rushing threat in the Big Ten. MSU sits on the chart as an outlier due to outstanding skill position play from Kirk Cousins.
MSU hasn't had a balanced attack since the 2008 season. Cousins passed for over 2,500 yards in every season as a starter. In 2009 and 2010, he did it without a true #1 target. He proved he could use whoever was available but really exploded as a senior with Cunningham ready to be the guy. Cousins was a true stud and now he is gone. Voters know how much of an asset Cousins was. A guy like him is not easily replaced.
Although Andrew Maxwell is talented and has spent multiple years under Dantonio, first year starting qbs are rarely ever put into a position to succeed immediately. Tremendous took a look at first year starter QBs and found that the successful ones were backed by a proven all-star supporting cast in all but one case. MSU doesn't have the kinds of playmakers necessary to coddle Maxwell into a 2,500 yard season. Chad Henne had 3 future NFL WRs in Edwards, Avant and Breaston and the best RB in the Big Ten in Mike Hart. MSU is depending on Deanthony Arnett to be a playmaker immediately in a new offense as a young player. I think that's far too much to ask considering that Cunningham's first 1000 yard season came as a senior with 3 tears of playing experience. Before Cunningham, MSU hadn't had a 1000 yd receiver in 4 years. The last was Devin Thomas, a JUCO transfer who only caught 6 passes in his first season.
Back to the stars. MGoBlog recently compiled data on all the FBS players drafted and their incoming rivals star rankings and found that two and three star players who were drafted into the NFL had a team win percentage of 52.3% and 62.9%, respectively, compared to 72.6% for 4 stars and 75.6% for 5 stars. Obvious point is obvious.... teams with higher ranked NFL caliber players win more games than teams who build NFL talent out of 2 and 3 stars. It's an easier task...
Although I won't disagree that MSU's juxtaposition with Michigan's reputation will always hurt them in the rankings, probability/statistics don't suggest that MSU deserves a higher ranking in the pre-season either. Historically, teams that lose their star offensive players and don't recruit especially well have a tough time winning ball games. If not for MSU's stout defense, they wouldn't make the list at all. AP voters are specifically instructed to vote based on performance. MSU's new offensive players don't have performance history to judge. I think it's that simple. How about you?
This post was edited by RPMadMSU on 5/15/2012 at 11:31 AM
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mentalstate said...
Your whole premise is flawed when you state we've been "over-achieving" for the past two years. MSU hasn't simply gotten lucky with a few 2-and-3 star players, it has routinely identified over-looked HS talent and developed it. This is proven through all 4 years of Dantonio & co's coaching, and has been punctuated by having 8-8 players from this past class in NFL camps right now, including 6 draftees.
Additionally, Maxwell does have some real talent around him, starting with a very, very good line coming back (better at the start of 2012 then the one Cousins played behind to start 2011) and 2 premier backs, including 1 of the best 2 in the B10. Sims is also a unique talent IF he can stay healthy.
When you say things like 50% success rate, that number comes about as much due to outliers as everyone being at 50%. MSU is the outlier at the high end, while a bad team from conf usa would be the low end, as an example.
The best (and worst) college programs and conferences at developing recruits into NFL players - Black Heart Gold Pants
(Well, this is a must-bump. Very interesting post. -- Ross) The draft is done, and the new draftees are looking forward to fame, fortune... and a lockout. While the immediate NFL future is...
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DJNiteFlite said...
MSU is 47th in the nation at player development. They are not meeting their expected number of NFL draftees based on the rankings of incoming recruits. Their development ratio is 80%, compared to Michigan (102%), Ohio State (183%), Iowa (169%), Penn State (128%), Wisconsin (126%), Notre Dame (104%). "The Development Ratio is a simple way to measure the effect of a program on player development: take the number of recruits a program turned into draft picks and divide that by the number that an average BCS program would have produced from the same recruiting classes."
This post was edited by mentalstate on 5/15/2012 at 11:48 AM
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Johnny2x2x said...
Getting high starred players doesn't necessarily cause you to win, being a winning program though can cause you to get high starred players though. Correlation does not mean causation. Alabama and Nick Saban are going to win regardless of stars, period.
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DJNiteFlite said...
Wow. I hope to get some responses from someone who values empirical data. Is that your best? Calling me an idiot? you just stated that Dantonio has 4 years of proven talent at player development. All I did was post evidence to the contrary. That's all. I'm not my argument. Calling me an idiot doesn't refute it.
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RPMadMSU said...
That website seems legit...(eyeroll)
Your people always talk about stars without getting to the real issue of the faulted star system...how and why stars are actually assigned to players.
There is a reason why coaches don't look at 'em.
This post was edited by DJNiteFlite on 5/15/2012 at 11:58 AM
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IF MSU has a different name what are they polled preseason?