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Notre Dame's independence: life support?

  • wingfanjim said...

    Where is the money coming from? OK, so they have to walk away from their $9M/yr contract. How much per year do you think adding ND would raise the the contract? It better be huge or there is no way they break even.

    See above. ND is getting $15 million on their current NBC deal (plus they do get money from Big East basketball). You are looking at the old deal. You are also cutting out the middle man in that deal, which could easily be $7 million.

    The national deal the BTN has could be totally reworked, and in fact would be if ND joined. You can bet that 10 cents nationally goes way up.

    As much as we may not like it, ND does have the largest fanbase in all of college football. There is a ton of revenue to be added there, and adds a huge bargaining chip for the B10. You can't simply take all current contract numbers and extend them out. ND changes all the dynamics in the B10 and adds a huge bargaining chip. I am willing to bet they would easily cover the $22 million needed. Plus that $22 million includes bowls, basketball tournament, and licensing. Television (both basketball and football) is roughly $17 million. As I mentioned above the B10 teams make more, but it's not by much.

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    See above. ND is getting $15 million on their current NBC deal (plus they do get money from Big East basketball). You are looking at the old deal. You are also cutting out the middle man in that deal, which could easily be $7 million.

    The national deal the BTN has could be totally reworked, and in fact would be if ND joined. You can bet that 10 cents nationally goes way up.

    As much as we may not like it, ND does have the largest fanbase in all of college football. There is a ton of revenue to be added there, and adds a huge bargaining chip for the B10. You can't simply take all current contract numbers and extend them out. ND changes all the dynamics in the B10 and adds a huge bargaining chip. I am willing to bet they would easily cover the $22 million needed. Plus that $22 million includes bowls, basketball tournament, and licensing. Television (both basketball and football) is roughly $17 million. As I mentioned above the B10 teams make more, but it's not by much.

    Not so fast on the largest comment.

    http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+nyt/rss/Sports+(NYT+%3E+Sports)&seid=auto&smid=tw-nytimessports

    ErnieMcCracken

  • wingfanjim said...

    True, but that would probably be even better for BTN as adding additional interested viewers in high population states would. Especially because for what would essentially be a national sports network, $1.10 per subscriber is a reasonable rate. ESPN charges $4.69 per subscriber.

    You assume there are enough interested viewers in those states. When you talk about the B10 schools then you would be right. If you talk about GTech in Georgia, not so much. Same with Maryland. These companies are not in business to hand over money, and in fact the money the BTN gets for the ratings they get is outrageous (it is one of the tops in money per channel in the footprint but ratings are bottom of the barrel most of the year). The reason is people are willing to switch just to get it. Yet you don't get much of that with GTech or Maryland. The B10 simply cannot demand the same things like they can with the rest of the B10 footprint. In fact, I would bet it would be a negative outcome from a business standpoint. Up to this point you have essentially areas with either very rabid fans or states with multiple teams (or both). That won't be true with some of the other random schools, and you can damn well bet there will be pushback from the providers. The Big 10 simply won't be able to negotiate the same deal if they add crappy, low revenue schools that just happen to be in heavily populated states.

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    You are assuming all contract stay the same. First of all, ND averages $15 million from their NBC contract (you are looking at old numbers). Second, you are assuming NBC gives all the money to ND. That doesn't happen either, and that in fact could be $44 million. In fact, the reason for the B10 getting so much money is not the fact the B10 Network rocks. It's because they get such a huge share of the revenue it brings, and it continues to grow over time. No team is getting as good of a deal as the teams in the B10 get from the B10 Network.

    ND would grow the BTN nationally and would bring a larger contract from ABC/ESPN. You can't just go by current contracts. ND in the Big 10 would completely change the B10's bargaining position. It would easily make up for the $22 million needed to cover the addition of another team.

    If you think ND doesn't bring more money to the B10, then there is absolutely no school outside of Texas that will bring anything to the B10.

    Satellite providers are not simply going to roll over and give the same money they gave to other Big Ten schools if they add a crap team with no fanbase in a random non Big Ten state. These things are not set in stone for eternity.

    What the fuck is that gibberish? I already explained how and why BTN brings in so much money. And what is this stuff about NBC not giving all the money to ND? You aren't even making sense.

    So you want to talk future contracts. Let's talk that. ND's ratings and performance have been SHIT. They aren't worth the $9M or the $15M they are getting from NBC now. ABC isn't going to open up their wallets for a team that hasn't performed up to the standard that merits big money like that for nearly 20 years. Do you think ABC is going to give the Big Ten an additional $150M over the next ten years to broadcast a team that's gone 2-9 in bowl games?

    But for the sake of fun, I'll humor you. Let's say ND does bring in an additional $15M a year to the ABC contract. with likely only having 2 games per year actually on BTN, ND still isn't going to sell $29M in advertising on BTN to break even. Not in only two games they aren't.

    wingfanjim

  • ErnieMcCracken said...

    Not so fast on the largest comment.

    http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+nyt/rss/Sports+(NYT+%3E+Sports)&seid=auto&smid=tw-nytimessports

    There is a major flaw in that survey. The survey they used simply asked most loyal too. You and I both know people that pick their alma mater but are also ND fans. In fact, many ND fans are secondary fans. Heck, I live in Cincinnati. There are tons of UC fans who happen to also be ND fans. They would say UC first, but they will be sure to watch ND every week.

    If you want to call ND 4th, sure, yet check out those random markets. They have a large number of fans in some of the largest markets where the B10 has no presence. So not only are they the largest fanbase not in the B10, they have more fans in large markets than any other team could bring.

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    See above. ND is getting $15 million on their current NBC deal (plus they do get money from Big East basketball). You are looking at the old deal. You are also cutting out the middle man in that deal, which could easily be $7 million.

    The national deal the BTN has could be totally reworked, and in fact would be if ND joined. You can bet that 10 cents nationally goes way up.

    As much as we may not like it, ND does have the largest fanbase in all of college football. There is a ton of revenue to be added there, and adds a huge bargaining chip for the B10. You can't simply take all current contract numbers and extend them out. ND changes all the dynamics in the B10 and adds a huge bargaining chip. I am willing to bet they would easily cover the $22 million needed. Plus that $22 million includes bowls, basketball tournament, and licensing. Television (both basketball and football) is roughly $17 million. As I mentioned above the B10 teams make more, but it's not by much.

    What do you mean by cutting out the middle man? what middle man is there? Nobody is going to pay $7M for shitty ND basketball.

    Your math is busted. There is no way ND can pay for itself.

    wingfanjim

  • wingfanjim said...

    What the fuck is that gibberish? I already explained how and why BTN brings in so much money. And what is this stuff about NBC not giving all the money to ND? You aren't even making sense.

    So you want to talk future contracts. Let's talk that. ND's ratings and performance have been SHIT. They aren't worth the $9M or the $15M they are getting from NBC now. ABC isn't going to open up their wallets for a team that hasn't performed up to the standard that merits big money like that for nearly 20 years. Do you think ABC is going to give the Big Ten an additional $150M over the next ten years to broadcast a team that's gone 2-9 in bowl games?

    But for the sake of fun, I'll humor you. Let's say ND does bring in an additional $15M a year to the ABC contract. with likely only having 2 games per year actually on BTN, ND still isn't going to sell $29M in advertising on BTN to break even. Not in only two games they aren't.

    You said the Big 10 shares money with Fox and turned it into 44 million. Well, it's not like all the money NBC makes goes directly to ND. NBC takes a cut too. You are mixing numbers that don't make sense. Stick strictly to what teams get. Big 10 teams get about $17 million from tv and ND gets $15 million from NBC. You are also ignoring basketball, which adds another few hundred thousand to 1 million.

    You can say all you want ND is not worth it, but they are currently getting similar money to the B10 teams and they don't even have their own network. We all know the BTN grew revenues for all schools. It would do the same for ND and therefore the conference as a whole since they already make close to what the B10 members make.

    BTW...by your logic, MSU should be dropped from the B10.

    scott91575

  • wingfanjim said...

    What do you mean by cutting out the middle man? what middle man is there? Nobody is going to pay $7M for shitty ND basketball.

    Your math is busted. There is no way ND can pay for itself.

    NBC is the middle man. Plus it's not $7 million. Please read my posts. You are including bowl money, basketball tournament money, and licensing. The money B10 teams get from tv is $17 million.

    It's a 2 million difference, and that does not even count basketball. Then add in the fact ND licensing is huge, along with bowl money and tournament basketball and the numbers are very close.

    Sorry, but your math has been busted.

    Oops, I almost forgot. Most of that $17 million is from the ABC/ESPN contract, not the BTN revenues. So you can't say Fox gets 51% of the revenue so therefore it's $44 million. First of all, it's 17 from television not 22 as I noted. Second, most of that money is from ESPN/ABC not the BTN deal.

    I don't know how much more I can break this down, but your numbers are way off and make no sense.

    This post was edited by scott91575 on 5/19/2012 at 11:41 PM

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    There is a major flaw in that survey. The survey they used simply asked most loyal too. You and I both know people that pick their alma mater but are also ND fans. In fact, many ND fans are secondary fans. Heck, I live in Cincinnati. There are tons of UC fans who happen to also be ND fans. They would say UC first, but they will be sure to watch ND every week.

    If you want to call ND 4th, sure, yet check out those random markets. They have a large number of fans in some of the largest markets where the B10 has no presence. So not only are they the largest fanbase not in the B10, they have more fans in large markets than any other team could bring.

    Well I got something that provides a basis of claim. All you have is your opinion. I need a link.

    ErnieMcCracken

  • ErnieMcCracken said...

    Well I got something that provides a basis of claim. All you have is your opinion. I need a link.

    I said, ok, let's take ND as 4th. I went with it. ND is still the #1 fanbase not in the B10. So it is bigger than any other fanbase we are discussing. I was pointing out an obvious flaw with the poll that you know is true. I don't have another poll, but let's face it, you can create a poll to make anything true if you word it right.

    How about this. Of all the teams that the B10 could add, ND has the largest fanbase. Cool?

    I love semantics.

    edit: I believe the Harris Poll stopped asking this question, but I know ND led for many years. This is way back in 2004, but it would be pretty amazing that Ohio State made up the difference ended up with 33% more fans in 8 years. These polls always have flaws.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by scott91575 on 5/19/2012 at 11:52 PM

    Unavailable

    Either this website doesn't exist or is not currently available.

    www.prnewswire.com

    Notre Dame's Fighting Irish Remains Nation's Favorite College Football Team, According to... -- re> ROCHESTER, N.Y., Nov. 12 /PRNewswire/ --

    Notre Dame's Fighting Irish Remains Nation's Favorite College Football Team, According to Latest Harris Poll. Next Come Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and Penn State .

    www.prnewswire.com

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    I said, ok, let's take ND as 4th. I went with it. ND is still the #1 fanbase not in the B10. So it is bigger than any other fanbase we are discussing. I was pointing out an obvious flaw with the poll that you know is true. I don't have another poll, but let's face it, you can create a poll to make anything true if you word it right.

    How about this. Of all the teams that the B10 could add, ND has the largest fanbase. Cool?

    I love semantics.

    I'm fine with that.

    ErnieMcCracken

  • ErnieMcCracken said...

    I'm fine with that.

    BTW, I added a random link from 2004 that showed ND as #1. I knew there were Harris Polls that had ND as #1, but I can't find anything more recent. I think they stopped asking the question. Anyway, moot point is moot.

    scott91575

  • scott91575 said...

    BTW, I added a random link from 2004 that showed ND as #1. I knew there were Harris Polls that had ND as #1, but I can't find anything more recent. I think they stopped asking the question. Anyway, moot point is moot.

    I agree- moot point. With that said, the poll has Maryland in the top 10.

    ErnieMcCracken

  • Nvm, you were talking about the one I posted. I know it's not really relevant at this point. It was simply all I could find. As for Maryland, you don't even need a poll. They get less than 40k at their football games these days. Maryland would be like adding Indiana to the conference.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by scott91575 on 5/20/2012 at 12:35 AM

    scott91575

  • tJYD said...

    Pretty much nailed it. I think UNC and Duke are B1G bound if FSU and Clemson jump. That leaves room for UVA, Maryland or ND.

    i bet you walk into poles and such a lot don't you.

    signature image

    boozhoo

  • Bob in Houston said...

    BE: It's not one ND would consider for football.

    B12 defections were the result of bad timing and bad location. When the Big Ten started all this, the Big 12 got clipped because several conferences could take teams and stay relatively close to their cores. If the B12 TV contract had been redone at that time (not that it was going to be), there would have been less incentive to leave. If the outline of the current deal had been in place, things would have been fine for everyone except the Aggies, who are still complaining about the LHN. OU would have gotten its money and Tier 3 deal, and David Boren would have been less inclined to act like an idiot, which set off Missouri.

    It's cool that you're now picking on the B12 for style instead of substance.

    no...the B12 defections were because of one reason and one reason only: UT Austin's megalomania and refusal to share the riches. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    signature image

    boozhoo

  • Bob in Houston said...

    Did you read my post? More than any of the other options.

    ND considers itself a "national" school. I don't necessarily agree with that either, but the thread is about what will happen to ND football. West doesn't work. SEC doesn't work. ACC will be depleted. That leaves the Big Ten and the Big 12. They don't get outside the Midwest in the Big Ten, but they will go to more regions in the B12. It's just the way it is.

    So, if I am reading your post "right" the SEC only gets them the South, but going to Texas 5 times in a season is considered NATIONAL. Outstanding, I think I understand where you are coming from now.

    signature image signature image

    DeangeloVickers

  • ND see's itself as a Texas without the burden of being in a conference. Because the Big East was foolish enough to allow ND to get in with an everything except football clause, they have been able to keep their other programs alive. (Try being an independent in hoops, baseball, soffball etc)

    What Bob in Houston says isn't born out by the facts. Nebraska, TAMU, Missouri had been chaffing about the Big 12 revenue split agreement for years. When rumors about a possible Longhorn Network started leaking it confirmed what direction the Big 12 was taking.

    ND will still want preferential treatment and special football revenue arrangements because they are ND. That card can't be played in the Big Ten and doesn't look like it would fly in the ACC. PAC12 won't work due to geography. Doubtful ND football wants any part of being in the SEC so that leaves the Big 12 and Big East. Does anyone really think ND wants to be in a conference with a majority of its members in Texas?

    GRR Spartan

  • Let's just add Miami so we become a "national" conference.

    ErnieMcCracken

  • boozhoo said...

    no...the B12 defections were because of one reason and one reason only: UT Austin's megalomania and refusal to share the riches. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    I really don't want to go through this again, but here's a quick summary.

    It was Nebraska that demanded unequal revenue sharing when the B12 was formed. Texas A&M voted with them every step of the way. That was because they benefited from it. When they wanted to leave, they bitched.

    When Kevin Weiberg proposed a B12 network (before he went to the Big Ten and helped set up BTN), it was voted down 11-1. No one knows who the one was, but it couldn't be Nebraska (they wanted their own network, too), AND A&M, AND Missouri, AND Colorado.

    Texas told everyone for years that it wanted to start its own network, before the BTN became a cash cow. It asked A&M to join them when A&M was pinching pennies. A&M said no. In 2010, when Texas, for the last time, said, we're going ahead, A&M asked to get in and was turned down. Only AFTER ESPN gave Texas a $15 mil check did the Aggies claim the LHN was an unfair advantage.

    The high school issues that ticked off so many people came from ESPN's guy, not Texas. There is no way that Texas would let the LHN founder because of a demand to show high school sports. That would be foolish and against the reason they wanted to have it in the first place.

    Of course, Texas is a big dog. But people that dumped on them on the way were and still are, in the case of the Aggies, partly looking to deflect.

    “Kansas may wind up number one in these polls, but that would be so unfair to Texas...” -- Len Elmore, 2/13/11

    Bob in Houston

  • GRR Spartan said...

    ND see's itself as a Texas without the burden of being in a conference. Because the Big East was foolish enough to allow ND to get in with an everything except football clause, they have been able to keep their other programs alive. (Try being an independent in hoops, baseball, soffball etc)

    What Bob in Houston says isn't born out by the facts. Nebraska, TAMU, Missouri had been chaffing about the Big 12 revenue split agreement for years. When rumors about a possible Longhorn Network started leaking it confirmed what direction the Big 12 was taking.

    ND will still want preferential treatment and special football revenue arrangements because they are ND. That card can't be played in the Big Ten and doesn't look like it would fly in the ACC. PAC12 won't work due to geography. Doubtful ND football wants any part of being in the SEC so that leaves the Big 12 and Big East. Does anyone really think ND wants to be in a conference with a majority of its members in Texas?

    I think the writing is on the wall for ND. They are going to have to join a conference. I agree that the Big 12 is a horrible fit for them.

    The RCMB...is one of the most awful, alarming, inappropriate, disgusting, and offensive msg boards in the history of the internet.

    Jud Owns Digger

  • Would you guys just get a room?

    thanks

    Nίκη για MSU

    Bender

  • Jud Owns Digger said...

    I think the writing is on the wall for ND. They are going to have to join a conference. I agree that the Big 12 is a horrible fit for them.

    Swarbrick is sucking up the new big East commish.

    Swarbrick praises new Big East commissioner

    SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) — Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said he is encouraged by the Big Easts TV rights will hit the open market.Swarbrick also unveiled new uniforms the Irish will wear for their Oct. 6 game in Chicago against Miami.

    bigstory.ap.org

    Join Date: 06-12-2001 RCMB vBull #32 # Total Posts: 35,866

    Floyd Robertson

  • Kwality bump.

    Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. - Groucho Marx

    tGreenWay