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Phil Steele preseason bowl Projections: MSU to the Sugar Bowl

  • xwing said...

    http://www.philsteele.com/bowls/12-13/bowlprojections.html

    Has Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, UM in the capital One Bowl, and Nebraska in the outback bowl.

    Also want to say that having to play LSU in a bowl other than the Rose or BCSNC would be a horrible ending to a great year.

    That team is stacked top to bottom and will be incredibly deep, particularly on the OL and DL. If their new QB Mettenberger steps up I think they have the potential to be one of those all-time great teams.

    Tide06

  • Florida State in the title game lol

    When will people quit awarding them national titles based on their recruiting? They always end up sucking.

    Jor El

  • I am not sure what the love affair with Michigan is all about. They are going to take a step back this year (IMO if they played the same schedule this year as they did last year they would end with likely 1-2 more losses). I am not guerenteeing an MSU win @ Umich this year but they will be worse.

    Secondly, we can't discount Iowa or Nebraska. I think both have a chance to surpass michigan this year. No data to back up my assertions however just a feeling as nothing typically goes as predicted this early.

    Serenity

  • Tide06 said...

    Agree that O'Brien will be very good and will play at a higher level than we are used to seeing out of UW QB's, but Wilson was a special player and a difference maker.

    Remains to be seen if O'Brien will ever get there, much less his first year in a new system.

    11-1 and Sugar Bowl would be a bitter disappointment.

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    "As far as the downvotes. It's a gnat biting an lion" -- A member of tRCMB Justice League, taking the internet WAY WAY too seriously.

    Rocket_Play

  • I will reserve judgement until I see Jerry Palm's prediction. Really.

    Big John Studd

  • Rocket_Play said...

    11-1 and Sugar Bowl would be a bitter disappointment.

    I hear you, obviously its an outstanding year when you win 11 and make a BCS bowl. Unfortunately playing in the Sugar Bowl against LSU would also likely mean:

    -No B10 championship
    -No Rose Bowl visit
    -No National Championship
    -Having to play a superior team in their own backyard

    Bottom line, making the BCS would be a massive accomplishment and another step forward for a rapidly growing program. I was just pointing out that scenario would be the worst way possible to do it. The upside is either way you get to party on Bourbon Street before and after.

    Tide06

  • 437 M.A.C. said...

    Florida State in the title game lol

    When will people quit awarding them national titles based on their recruiting? They always end up sucking.

    Its because on paper every year they have elite talent and a cake walk schedule in the ACC.

    Unfortunately for the 'Noles they haven't done much in the way of player development, especially on the OL. If they ever get their act together as far as finding a run game and keeping their QB upright all year they could be nasty.

    Tide06

  • Tide06 said...

    Bottom line, making the BCS would be a massive accomplishment and another step forward for a rapidly growing program.

    Have to disagree somewhat. If we learned anything from the BCS last year (UConn, UM, VT), making a game doesn't mean as much as you hope it would. It would not have been hard to find 3 better teams than those.

    spartytom

  • Remember when the tigers were supposed to run away with the division? Temper the predictions. I think losing worthy is going to hurt a lot more than people think.

    Keeping the sunshiners in check since 2000.

    Tanfan

  • Tide06 said...

    Also want to say that having to play LSU in a bowl other than the Rose or BCSNC would be a horrible ending to a great year.

    ...but what if the horrible ending puts such a bad taste in the mouth of Gholston and other juniors that are thinking of going pro; so much so, that they all return for a season of unfinished business?

    tVargMan Prime

  • VargMan said...

    ...but what if the horrible ending puts such a bad taste in the mouth of Gholston and other juniors that are thinking of going pro; so much so, that they all return for a season of unfinished business?

    Purposely lose a game

    Great thinking

    TPain151807

  • navygreen15 said...

    Danny O’Brien graduated from Maryland in 3 years, so i’m sure he’ll have no issues learning the playbook. He played on a team that had marginal talent all around, so I think it’s difficult to judge just how good or bad he is. Of all the team’s on our schedule, Wisconsin gives me the most concern because I just don’t know what O’Brien gives them.

    Here's the list of the 5 TDs that MSU gave up in 2 games vs. Wilson last year. Pretty clear that his mobility really took things to the next level for WI.

    Yea, and Vandenburg's 2nd TD came after the game was out of reach (5:34 left in the 3rd to make it 34-14).

    I'm in the process of charting who gave up each one of the 20 TD passes given up by MSU. Here are the 5 TD passes given up in 2 games vs. Wisconsin

    Wisconsin (regular season)- 2 TDs given up. 1st was a 9 yard pass to TE Jacob Pederson, on a delayed wheel route off of play-action. Chris Norman had the coverage; you can see him get suckered in, first looking towards where Ball was running, then looking at Wilson, then going Holy @)#$(*()@#$ and turn towards the uncovered TE. Also observed on the play: Had that been an actual run, Anthony Rashad White would have stuck Ball in the backfield for a 3 yard loss; he tossed the RG to the ground and just ran straight through the A-gap.

    2nd was a dump-off pass to Ball for a 2 yard TD. Denicos Allen had the coverage, but they play had broken down; if Allen stays with ball, Wilson tucks the ball and runs it in. Great use of the "threat" part of dual-threat by WI on both those TDs.

    Big 10 CCG: 1st TD. 3 yard slant or a square in route to Jeff Duckworth, who was lined up in the slot to the right. Chris Norman went for the TE, even though the S has come up to check the TE.

    2nd TD: Deep route to Abbrederis on a broken play. Darqueze Dennard got caught napping, watching Johnny Adams nearly sack Wilson. Adams had Wilson, but RW adjusted, so Adams got his facemask instead of his upper body. RW escaped and Abbrederis had been forgotten about was sitting in the EZ.

    3rd TD: Shovel pass for a 5 yard TD to Ball. Don't really know who to call the "coverage" on, because you really don't have coverage responsibilities. Maybe the DEs, given the 3rd and long. Still, Wilson was able to evade the rush long enough to dump the pass off.

    So, LB, LB, LB, Broken Play, Shovel Pass. Almost all of them were made by Wilson's scrambling ability and were in the RZ, with the exception of the broken play.

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • Tanfan said...

    Remember when the tigers were supposed to run away with the division? Temper the predictions. I think losing worthy is going to hurt a lot more than people think.

    But he took plays off and jumped offsides!!!

    The_Dude

  • T-Pain said...

    Purposely lose a game

    Great thinking

    Huh?

    tVargMan Prime

  • xwing said...

    Besides that is Wisconsin that good? They lost Wilson, Toon, and some other good players.

    I think the champ will come out of the legends division between MSU/UM/Nebraska.

    I am just not super high on Wisconsin this year.

    This. They also lost half their staff. New assistants have to get in sync w/BB, and their players. Think about the game management gaffs BB had with a veteran staff, now there are several newbies. They have another QB who hasn't been in the system if the transfer plays, or someone the staff hasn't been too impressed with if the transfer gets beat out. If Bielema were a legend or something, I'd figure he could pull it off, but if anything he's a legend in the wrong direction.

    spartan80

  • Every team sucks except for MSU! The only reason people say nice things about these other teams is to sell magazines!

    Slippery People

  • spartytom said...

    Have to disagree somewhat. If we learned anything from the BCS last year (UConn, UM, VT), making a game doesn't mean as much as you hope it would. It would not have been hard to find 3 better teams than those.

    Yes and no. BCS means something, and our absence is likely used against MSU to recruits. Doesn't mean you're a great team to make the BCS coming out of a crap conference, but normally the BT BCS teams are considered top 5, 10.

    spartan80

  • Tanfan said...

    Remember when the tigers were supposed to run away with the division? Temper the predictions. I think losing worthy is going to hurt a lot more than people think.

    Worthy was a force in there. No denying it. You don't simply replace a guy like that. But we've got a lot more to work with nowadays. Opposing O's are losing more than our D is losing.

    One exception being UM (assuming no injuries on their OL). We'll miss Worthy's experience and discipline on that one. It'll be close this year.

    Royal

  • RPMadMSU said...

    He's implying that Wisconsin and Michigan will meet in the B1GCG and Wisconsin will win again.

    While MSU loses to Michigan and that's it?

    Not sure I agree with any of that.

    If a 10-2 Nebraska team loses to Wisconsin in the B1G CCG while MSU stays at home at 10-2 and Michigan is 9-3, it could play out the way Steele is predicting. Nebraska would have to win at MSU and lose two others, probably vs. Wisconsin and @ OSU. If the Capital One Bowl didn't want Nebraska two years in a row, they could take Michigan instead, sending the Huskers to the Outback Bowl. shrug

    signature image

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    fishrose

  • T-Pain said...

    Purposely lose a game

    Great thinking

    What the fuck are you talking about?

    signature image

    tRCMB's resident Wayne State Warrior and Sam's Club Spartan fan.

    fishrose

  • fishrose said...

    What the fuck are you talking about?

    The OP talking about how a bad bowl loss could make certain players come back for another year, rather than saying we should try and win the freaking game

    TPain151807

  • T-Pain said...

    The OP talking about how a bad bowl loss could make certain players come back for another year, rather than saying we should try and win the freaking game

    We don't have anything to do with "trying to win the freaking game." The team would obviously try very hard in a bowl game against LSU, but there's a pretty good chance they'd still come up short. I don't quite see how speculating about what might happen if we lose a bowl game comes anywhere close to suggesting that the players or coaches should try to lose on purpose.

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    fishrose

  • If Michigan makes the Big Ten Championship Game and Michigan State doesn't, but Michigan State ends up making it to a BCS Game over Michigan, that will be an absolute joke. What a messed up system. Shows a clear bias against Michigan.

    ilikemichigan

  • ilikemichigan said...

    If Michigan makes the Big Ten Championship Game and Michigan State doesn't, but Michigan State ends up making it to a BCS Game over Michigan, that will be an absolute joke. What a messed up system. Shows a clear bias against Michigan.

    Know your history idiot?

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    MSU Mathguy

  • ilikemichigan said...

    If Michigan makes the Big Ten Championship Game and Michigan State doesn't, but Michigan State ends up making it to a BCS Game over Michigan, that will be an absolute joke. What a messed up system. Shows a clear bias against Michigan.

    That is what happened last year in reverse...so what is your beef?

    Lurking on tRCMB since 1996

    TrapperGus