MSU Red Cedar Message Board

Has anyone seen first round projections for them? If not, then no.

I think you're confusing causation with correlation. Players who stay longer don't lower their chances of being lottery picks, its just that the players who are sure fire lottery picks leave earlier. I have no problem with either of them leaving if they have the potential to become lottery picks, but staying in school longer isn't going to make then less likely to become so

Unless Dawson has a down season, I expect him to go after next season. He has the athleticism and potential. He is a heck of a rebounder for his size. Why stay and risk another injury? Payne getting time at that 4 spot this season. If he can knock down a consistent outside shot, he can go as well. Once again a player with athleticism and potential to improve. That is how the nba drafts. Top 3 picks were freshmen.

IIRC, Draymond was ranked as roughly 200 coming out of high school. Should he have submitted for the draft after his first year at MSU?

If you're a first round lock you absolutely should leave (or take out an insurance policy against yourself).

The 30th pick makes something like 800k for three years guaranteed. Even if he busts, that's a lifetime earning right there if spent wisely.

Well this seems like a logical time to make that decision.

I disagree. The NBA shouldn't punish players because their scouts and GMs can't run a proper cost/benefit analysis when making draft selections. Any way the NBA chooses to create the market--whether high school, nineteen years old or twenty-one years old--they still have to operate efficiently if they want to succeed. But if you keep drafting players on upside, you are probably going to fail more than you succeed. And if NBA teams are so concerned with limiting risk, they have options to do just that. Unfortunately, some GMs can't help themselves. Why should the NBA protect them from themselves? It's a competitive league, right?

Sure, as you suggest, the NBA can limit its risk by forcing players to wait longer before entering the draft, effectively allowing them to gain a better understanding of a player's ability. But at the same time, the NBA is also losing significant value by allowing organizations like the NCAA to benefit--financially and competitively--from those players. While not every player is Lebron James or Kevin Durant, those players have significantly improved the NBA even in their most early years. So from a financial perspective, the NBA will only lose more value the longer it forces players to wait.

What's more, if the NBA went to an older age limit, I think you would start seeing the elite talents foregoing college to play professionally in other countries anyway. Or even possibly, you could see an alternative domestic league forming or the DL becoming more like a minor league. Currently, the one-and-done players view the NCAA as returning value for a single year. But would they see the same value returned over three years? Probably not. The NCAA value variable is probably more fixed, so an elite player's expanding lost earning potential, injury risks and opportunity costs (i.e. full time commitment to basketball) will eventually vastly exceed the NCAA value.

So why go be a college student for three years, risking injury and losing significant potential income when you could ink million dollar deals in Europe? You don't think a European team would love to have the next Lebron James for three years? He could bring emense value to any professional team, while getting paid, developing his game full-time and not significantly altering his injury risk. And with the increased globalization of basketball and sports marketing, he could probably better control his own brand.

If payne were to leave we'd probablybe in trouble in 2013 in the front court. Don't see us in on any 2013 big men, we'd pretty much be left with Costello as out only center and he's probably more of a 4

EDIT: forgot to quote

Actually, that is roughly per year. The 30th picks guaranteed contract last year was roughly $2.7MM.

To give you an idea, a 900K three-year annuity is roughly equivalent to a 210K thirty-year annuity. So, in essence, you would have to make $210,000 per year for the next thrity years to match the value of a three year, 2.7 million dollar contract. Even accounting for taxes, it would probably still be well over $150,000. And this doesn't even consider other professional contracts.

This is precisely why we should feel bad for athletes when they are dead broke within 3 years of ending their playing careers.

Dawson is going to be a face the basket player in the NBA. Has he shown he can regularly beat a defender off of the dribble or catch and shoot with range.