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Should Payne and Dawson leave early for the NBA?

  • Drugs Delaney said...

    I think Dawson's athleticism is in the same tier as MKG's. Raymar is not in that tier.

    If anything, Dawson is a much more explosive athlete than either MKG or Raymar. But genearlly, my point is simply that Dawson needs to develop an offensive skill set before he will get drafted in the lottery, and maybe first round.

    The Raymar Morgan comparison is simply to show that it takes more than defense and athleticism. Certainly, it isn't a perfect comparison, but Raymar is much more like MKG than Dawson, both from an offensive and defensive standpoint. Yet, he didn't get drafted second overall. There are probably many theories why this happened--some I have proffered--but my point is simply to show that lottery picks at the wing position are drafted on more than simply defense and athleticism--those guys aren't that rare.

    This post was edited by Gus Chiggins on 6/29/2012 at 12:36 PM

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    Gus Chiggins

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    What's more, if the NBA went to an older age limit, I think you would start seeing the elite talents foregoing college to play professionally in other countries anyway. Or even possibly, you could see an alternative domestic league forming or the DL becoming more like a minor league. Currently, the one-and-done players view the NCAA as returning value for a single year. But would they see the same value returned over three years? Probably not. The NCAA value variable is probably more fixed, so an elite player's expanding lost earning potential, injury risks and opportunity costs (i.e. full time commitment to basketball) will eventually vastly exceed the NCAA value.

    That's a great point. I'm surprised more haven't started already, especially since Brandon Jennings has been so successful.

    At the same time I wish there weren't so many one and done's. I wonder if they moved the age limit up just one more year if it would have that effect?

    Spartan313

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    Actually, that is roughly per year. The 30th picks guaranteed contract last year was roughly $2.7MM.

    To give you an idea, a 900K three-year annuity is roughly equivalent to a 210K thirty-year annuity. So, in essence, you would have to make $210,000 per year for the next thrity years to match the value of a three year, 2.7 million dollar contract. Even accounting for taxes, it would probably still be well over $150,000. And this doesn't even consider other professional contracts.

    roflmao

    First of all, no shit it is per year. Also, 2.7 mil is not what he would be getting after all taxes.

    Then ask yourself, where does he live? Property taxes? Does he have a car? Is he married or have kids yet? What are his expenses?

    Bottom line is, that person is not going to be able to put all that money into an annuity. Also, do you even know WTF an annuity is or why people use them? I don't think you do. The ONLY reason a young person would use an annuity is to set it up in an IRA and use a variable one to grow the account until 59 and 1/2.

    The_Dude

  • The_Dude said...

    First of all, no shit it is per year. Also, 2.7 mil is not what he would be getting after all taxes.

    Then ask yourself, where does he live? Property taxes? Does he have a car? Is he married or have kids yet? What are his expenses?

    Bottom line is, that person is not going to be able to put all that money into an annuity. Also, do you even know WTF an annuity is or why people use them? I don't think you do. The ONLY reason a young person would use an annuity is to set it up in an IRA and use a variable one to grow the account until 59 and 1/2.

    You must be real dense. The point is that the NPV of $2.7MM paid over three years, even after taxes is the equivalent of making roughly $200,000 per year for thirty years. You don't think the person making $200,000 isn't getting taxed, too? You don't think that the regular guy doesn't have expenses, too? And would you rather have $2.7MM today, or spread out equally over a thirty years? If you want the latter, I'd be intersted in entering into some financial deals with your dumbass.

    If you had even a morsel of intelligence, you could see that it isn't about putting it into an annuity, per se. But a three year $900,000/yr annuity and a thirty year $200,000/yr annuity equate to nearly the same NPV. If you think of a guaranteed yearly salary as an annuity--which it essentially is--then it creates an easy way for people to see what $2.7MM really means.

    Again, my point is that $2.7MM can go a long way for someone with just simple investing and fiscal discipline. Now, if you want to argue that some NBA players will blow their money, I can't disagree. But that has nothing to do with what I am saying.

    This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by Gus Chiggins on 6/29/2012 at 2:43 PM

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    Gus Chiggins

  • Spartyshannon said...

    Michael-Kidd Gilchrist just got drafted off his athleticism and being able to defend. His shot is hit or miss. Dawson has the athleticism and rebounding ability. If he improves his defense this season he can be a lottery pick next year without a consistent outside shot. He will get drafted on potential.We would like to keep all our top recruits as long as possible. People need to remember that Dawson has been injured once. It's not unreasonable given his skill set that he could be gone after next season. Parker or no Parker.

    Dawson is showing up on Mock Draft boards based on his play before the injury. If he has a strong season, he can rise quickly based growth potential, measurables and how well he plays against top-tier talent.

    I want what's best for these players despite my desire to see them continue to play for MSU. As an elite basketball program, recruiting top-tier talent, shouldn't we be able to at least develop some of these guys into pros? It's in our best interest to do so.

    Unfortunately, staying in school in the current one-and-done culture, is potentially detrimental to being a lottery or first round draft pick. Read this article from ESPN:

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by mdm2005 on 6/30/2012 at 11:49 AM

    Sophomores' fall suggests it's best to leave - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN

    Perry Jones III fidgeted as he waited for his name to be called. Jared Sullinger wasnrsquo

    espn.go.com
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    The will to succeed is important, but what's more important is the will to prepare. ~Bobby Knight

    mdm2005

  • mdm2005 said...

    It seems that the longer players stay in college, the lower their chances of being a lottery pick or drafted at all. Both of these guys have NBA aspirations. I don't want to be a selfish fan, but it would be great to see spartans drafted in the first round again.

    I'm good with them leaving next year!

    No. nono

    IMO I think that they have some SERIOUS development to do. Both have the athletic gifts to make an impact on the game, but need to focus more on some low-post skills and game-time judgements (fouls).

    signature image

    "Music and rhythm find their way into the secret places of the soul" - Plato

    MSU734

  • UsedToBeBrad said...

    I think Dawson's game is very similar to raymar's. Dawson is a bit smaller, but other than that, what's the difference?

    Also, I don't get how you can compare Dawson's freshman year to Raymar's and say one is much better than the other or better suited for the league.

    When did I compare Dawson's freshmen year to Raymar's ? Never happened.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Spartyshannon

  • MSU734 said...

    No. nono

    IMO I think that they have some SERIOUS development to do. Both have the athletic gifts to make an impact on the game, but need to focus more on some low-post skills and game-time judgements (fouls).

    I actually agree with you on your points, however, in the current environment, players seem to be better off leaving some things to he imagination of the scouts and team executives. Players who stay in college to fix various deficiencies, really aren't being rewarded for those effforts. That's the point of the ESPN article. It's really shameful that this is how the NBA Draft system now works.

    You'd also think character and maturity would be more highly regarded than it appears to be. They value youth, skill and growth potential.

    signature image signature image signature image

    The will to succeed is important, but what's more important is the will to prepare. ~Bobby Knight

    mdm2005

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