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Big M said...
I think you are really overselling Michigan's departures. Michigan returns their 3 best players, will have much more post depth, and adds a player with skills UM hasn't had a in a while (Robinson). Every team loses players- is Michigan losing Novak, Douglass and Smotrycs really worse than MSU losing Thornton, Wood, and Green?
I think both teams should be B10 contenders.
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Gus Chiggins said...
This just shows how little you understand about the game of basketball. Novak, Douglass and Smotrycz were critical to Trey Burke's success last year, primarily because of their ability to spread the floor at non-traditional shooter positions. With certain lineups, UM could bring outside shooting to five positions, making it difficult to help in the paint and stop Burke in the pick-and-roll. Beyond the fact that they represent half your playing group and years of experience, they bring much more than simple production to the offense. The threat of their ability to shoot was as important as their actual scoring averages. That is to say, teams had to guard them to 20+ feet, opening the floor up for Burke to drive.
Next year, UM will have trouble finding similar versatility, which could severely impact Burke's ability to get into the paint. In an four/five out offense, you need shooters or else your outside shooting dries up as well as your ability to penetrate. While UM is adding "new" skills with players like Robinson and McGary, they don't bring the most important skill, outside shooting. It'll certainly be interesting to watch UM next year to see if Beilein adjusts his offense, as it stands though, I am not sure next year's talent has the experience or fit to execute efficiently.
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Erwin Fletcher said...
I don't really care one way or another, but this is one of the rare circumstances where it might have been smart for a borderline player to go. I find it hard to believe he's going to have a season better than his first one. If anything, the weaknesses in his game might get exposed as teams will be better prepared for him.
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Big M said...
Novak really tailed off towards the end of the year, so I might be overreacting to that. He turned into a + player for most of the year,so you might be right. I suspect Michigan will struggle somewhat in the beginning of the year because you are right- senior leadership is hard to replace. The reason I think UM could be better is the continued development of Burke and Hardaway, and a lot more post depth that I think will allow UM to compete better against OSU, MSU, etc. Horford coming back isn't being discussed at all, plus another true freshman big redshirted, and McGary, if nothing else, will give UM size and rebounding. It will have to be a different team to be successful.
To make it clear-I'm not saying UM is going to be a Final Four contender, but I think the idea that they are going to take a big step back is misplaced.
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Gus Chiggins said...
This just shows how little you understand about the game of basketball. Novak, Douglass and Smotrycz were critical to Trey Burke's success last year, primarily because of their ability to spread the floor at non-traditional shooter positions. With certain lineups, UM could bring outside shooting to five positions, making it difficult to help in the paint and stop Burke in the pick-and-roll. Beyond the fact that they represent half your playing group and years of experience, they bring much more than simple production to the offense. The threat of their ability to shoot was as important as their actual scoring averages. That is to say, teams had to guard them to 20+ feet, opening the floor up for Burke to drive.
Next year, UM will have trouble finding similar versatility, which could severely impact Burke's ability to get into the paint. In an four/five out offense, you need shooters or else your outside shooting dries up as well as your ability to penetrate. While UM is adding "new" skills with players like Robinson and McGary, they don't bring the most important skill, outside shooting. It'll certainly be interesting to watch UM next year to see if Beilein adjusts his offense, as it stands though, I am not sure next year's talent has the experience or fit to execute efficiently.
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Gus Chiggins said...
Look, UM doesn't need to a big step backward to regress. Last year, UM benefited from winning close games and having some schedule breaks, yet they still finished with ten losses. Take away their luck and half their contributors and UM could easily finish with a worse record without getting significantly worse. UM fans see the B10 title and think it signifies their team's ability, but that is fools gold. All other objective criteria suggest UM was a borderline Top 25 team last year.
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boozhoo said...
to be fair, GRIII is apparently a very good 3 point shooter already...but then so was Russell Byrd. so who knows. But the only word I keep hearing to describe McGary's shot is "brick" - and that is going to hurt them a ton. Smot, Novak, and Douglass were all 3 point threats....whether they scored a lot or not is irrelevant. Beilien's entire system is built upon having 4-5 shooters on the floor at all times. Last year the one guy that wasn't who played a lot was Morgan...but what are they going to do without Novak and Douglass to take up that space and spread the D? I will guarantee that Burke takes a step back this year, because his talents benefited greatly from how those guys who are now all gone could spread the floor. That's how he got all of those assists - driving and dishing. Unless Horford, GRIII, and Stauskus can all come in and immediately start hitting 35+% from 3, then they are going to struggle mightily. and it's not like they were scoring 80 points a game as it was.
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BH Spartan said...
UM was good last year because they played some really good defense and didn't turn the ball over. They are losing their two of their three best defenders and two reliable ball handlers and good passers. They'll need their new guys to buy in defensively and need them to value the ball and make plays. I don't see them being much better next year. Top-25 team? For sure. FF contender? No way. Still too many holes.
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boozhoo said...
to be fair, GRIII is apparently a very good 3 point shooter already...but then so was Russell Byrd. so who knows. But the only word I keep hearing to describe McGary's shot is "brick" - and that is going to hurt them a ton. Smot, Novak, and Douglass were all 3 point threats....whether they scored a lot or not is irrelevant. Beilien's entire system is built upon having 4-5 shooters on the floor at all times. Last year the one guy that wasn't who played a lot was Morgan...but what are they going to do without Novak and Douglass to take up that space and spread the D? I will guarantee that Burke takes a step back this year, because his talents benefited greatly from how those guys who are now all gone could spread the floor. That's how he got all of those assists - driving and dishing. Unless Horford, GRIII, and Stauskus can all come in and immediately start hitting 35+% from 3, then they are going to struggle mightily. and it's not like they were scoring 80 points a game as it was.
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Gus Chiggins said...
A very good three point shooter already? How can anyone know that? If you're referring to high school, fine. But those stats go out the window when you are now suiting up against like-athletes and B10 gameplans. Just ask Chris Allen and Russell Byrd.
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Ehrball said...
Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.
Anyone. Anyplace. Anytime.
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Ehrball said...
Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.
http://www.silentlapse.com
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Ehrball said...
Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.
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Trey Burke: He gone! He's staying! (UPDATE: Who cares?)