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Trey Burke: He gone! He's staying! (UPDATE: Who cares?)

  • Big M said...

    I think you are really overselling Michigan's departures. Michigan returns their 3 best players, will have much more post depth, and adds a player with skills UM hasn't had a in a while (Robinson). Every team loses players- is Michigan losing Novak, Douglass and Smotrycs really worse than MSU losing Thornton, Wood, and Green?

    I think both teams should be B10 contenders.

    This just shows how little you understand about the game of basketball. Novak, Douglass and Smotrycz were critical to Trey Burke's success last year, primarily because of their ability to spread the floor at non-traditional shooter positions. With certain lineups, UM could bring outside shooting to five positions, making it difficult to help in the paint and stop Burke in the pick-and-roll. Beyond the fact that they represent half your playing group and years of experience, they bring much more than simple production to the offense. The threat of their ability to shoot was as important as their actual scoring averages. That is to say, teams had to guard them to 20+ feet, opening the floor up for Burke to drive.

    Next year, UM will have trouble finding similar versatility, which could severely impact Burke's ability to get into the paint. In an four/five out offense, you need shooters or else your outside shooting dries up as well as your ability to penetrate. While UM is adding "new" skills with players like Robinson and McGary, they don't bring the most important skill, outside shooting. It'll certainly be interesting to watch UM next year to see if Beilein adjusts his offense, as it stands though, I am not sure next year's talent has the experience or fit to execute efficiently.

    signature image

    Gus Chiggins

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    This just shows how little you understand about the game of basketball. Novak, Douglass and Smotrycz were critical to Trey Burke's success last year, primarily because of their ability to spread the floor at non-traditional shooter positions. With certain lineups, UM could bring outside shooting to five positions, making it difficult to help in the paint and stop Burke in the pick-and-roll. Beyond the fact that they represent half your playing group and years of experience, they bring much more than simple production to the offense. The threat of their ability to shoot was as important as their actual scoring averages. That is to say, teams had to guard them to 20+ feet, opening the floor up for Burke to drive.

    Next year, UM will have trouble finding similar versatility, which could severely impact Burke's ability to get into the paint. In an four/five out offense, you need shooters or else your outside shooting dries up as well as your ability to penetrate. While UM is adding "new" skills with players like Robinson and McGary, they don't bring the most important skill, outside shooting. It'll certainly be interesting to watch UM next year to see if Beilein adjusts his offense, as it stands though, I am not sure next year's talent has the experience or fit to execute efficiently.

    Of course he is going to adjust his offense. Yes, not having a shooting 4 will change things. Obviously. But on the other hand, UM will no longer be playing a 6-4 SG against players like Draymond Green and other top power forwards.

    Big M

  • Erwin Fletcher said...

    I don't really care one way or another, but this is one of the rare circumstances where it might have been smart for a borderline player to go. I find it hard to believe he's going to have a season better than his first one. If anything, the weaknesses in his game might get exposed as teams will be better prepared for him.

    I agree. I think he will regress statistically next year a bit and much to Michigan fans' delight, he will be forced to stay at least 3 years.

    All Ages Shows

  • Walter_Sanchez said...

    Lulz, suck my dick u faggots.

    Where the guy blindly following Goodman saying his "unnamed" sources.

    I thought it was confirmed he was gone? hammer

    Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh

    SEE YA!

    Off to the sin bin with you

    signature image

    For the love of Trevor...™

    d mcc

  • Big M said...

    Novak really tailed off towards the end of the year, so I might be overreacting to that. He turned into a + player for most of the year,so you might be right. I suspect Michigan will struggle somewhat in the beginning of the year because you are right- senior leadership is hard to replace. The reason I think UM could be better is the continued development of Burke and Hardaway, and a lot more post depth that I think will allow UM to compete better against OSU, MSU, etc. Horford coming back isn't being discussed at all, plus another true freshman big redshirted, and McGary, if nothing else, will give UM size and rebounding. It will have to be a different team to be successful.

    To make it clear-I'm not saying UM is going to be a Final Four contender, but I think the idea that they are going to take a big step back is misplaced.

    Who cares about post depth? UM posted Morgan roughly two times a game. Now you have three Morgan's on your roster, for what Beilein has typically allocated 30 minutes of playing time. Not to mention, Morgan/Horford/McGary haven't proven they can score consistently in the post against college defenders.

    And I know UM fans are thinking UM will play two posts together. Good luck with that. Without a threat to shoot, opponents will clog the paint, really making it hard for Burke to penetrate. Again, the roster doesn't fit Beilein's offensive system at all.

    Look, UM doesn't need to a big step backward to regress. Last year, UM benefited from winning close games and having some schedule breaks, yet they still finished with ten losses. Take away their luck and half their contributors and UM could easily finish with a worse record without getting significantly worse. UM fans see the B10 title and think it signifies their team's ability, but that is fools gold. All other objective criteria suggest UM was a borderline Top 25 team last year.

    signature image

    Gus Chiggins

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    This just shows how little you understand about the game of basketball. Novak, Douglass and Smotrycz were critical to Trey Burke's success last year, primarily because of their ability to spread the floor at non-traditional shooter positions. With certain lineups, UM could bring outside shooting to five positions, making it difficult to help in the paint and stop Burke in the pick-and-roll. Beyond the fact that they represent half your playing group and years of experience, they bring much more than simple production to the offense. The threat of their ability to shoot was as important as their actual scoring averages. That is to say, teams had to guard them to 20+ feet, opening the floor up for Burke to drive.

    Next year, UM will have trouble finding similar versatility, which could severely impact Burke's ability to get into the paint. In an four/five out offense, you need shooters or else your outside shooting dries up as well as your ability to penetrate. While UM is adding "new" skills with players like Robinson and McGary, they don't bring the most important skill, outside shooting. It'll certainly be interesting to watch UM next year to see if Beilein adjusts his offense, as it stands though, I am not sure next year's talent has the experience or fit to execute efficiently.

    to be fair, GRIII is apparently a very good 3 point shooter already...but then so was Russell Byrd. so who knows. But the only word I keep hearing to describe McGary's shot is "brick" - and that is going to hurt them a ton. Smot, Novak, and Douglass were all 3 point threats....whether they scored a lot or not is irrelevant. Beilien's entire system is built upon having 4-5 shooters on the floor at all times. Last year the one guy that wasn't who played a lot was Morgan...but what are they going to do without Novak and Douglass to take up that space and spread the D? I will guarantee that Burke takes a step back this year, because his talents benefited greatly from how those guys who are now all gone could spread the floor. That's how he got all of those assists - driving and dishing. Unless Horford, GRIII, and Stauskus can all come in and immediately start hitting 35+% from 3, then they are going to struggle mightily. and it's not like they were scoring 80 points a game as it was.

    signature image

    boozhoo

  • Bob Sakimano said...

    so much so you feel the need to reply.. +1..

    It's more worn out than the ex-Mrs. A.M. Wood

    "Losing Benenoch is a mortal blow from which this program can't recover"-T-Pain

    Rogue Leader

  • Rogue Leader said...

    It's more worn out than the ex-Mrs. A.M. Wood

    You just don't respect contrary opinions.

    Fletch

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    Look, UM doesn't need to a big step backward to regress. Last year, UM benefited from winning close games and having some schedule breaks, yet they still finished with ten losses. Take away their luck and half their contributors and UM could easily finish with a worse record without getting significantly worse. UM fans see the B10 title and think it signifies their team's ability, but that is fools gold. All other objective criteria suggest UM was a borderline Top 25 team last year.

    The B1G tournament was very telling last year. The comparison between the games OSU had against UM and MSU revealed much. 1 was against a 100% paper tiger and the other featured two titans slugging it out in awesome fashion.

    Unfortunately, much like their football team, they lived a very charmed season. Things seemed to really fall into place and just like them getting bent over a barrel + every incredibly lucky break in their BCS bowl win, their basketball team some how fell ass first onto the same platform as MSU and OSU at the end of the regular season. It sucks but it all gives the public appearance that they've arrived.

    All Ages Shows

  • NigelUno said...

    I don't think they'll miss Smot that much. My guess is Horford was handling him in practice.

    lol they have completely different games, smotz was 6'9" and shot 44% from 3 point range, horford has no jumper to speak of.

    smot would have started easily at the 4

    beilein loves bigs that can stretch the court, he no longer has one.

    jbspartan4life

  • boozhoo said...

    to be fair, GRIII is apparently a very good 3 point shooter already...but then so was Russell Byrd. so who knows. But the only word I keep hearing to describe McGary's shot is "brick" - and that is going to hurt them a ton. Smot, Novak, and Douglass were all 3 point threats....whether they scored a lot or not is irrelevant. Beilien's entire system is built upon having 4-5 shooters on the floor at all times. Last year the one guy that wasn't who played a lot was Morgan...but what are they going to do without Novak and Douglass to take up that space and spread the D? I will guarantee that Burke takes a step back this year, because his talents benefited greatly from how those guys who are now all gone could spread the floor. That's how he got all of those assists - driving and dishing. Unless Horford, GRIII, and Stauskus can all come in and immediately start hitting 35+% from 3, then they are going to struggle mightily. and it's not like they were scoring 80 points a game as it was.

    UM was good last year because they played some really good defense and didn't turn the ball over. They are losing their two of their three best defenders and two reliable ball handlers and good passers. They'll need their new guys to buy in defensively and need them to value the ball and make plays. I don't see them being much better next year. Top-25 team? For sure. FF contender? No way. Still too many holes.

    BH Spartan

  • Big M said...

    Of course he is going to adjust his offense. Yes, not having a shooting 4 will change things. Obviously. But on the other hand, UM will no longer be playing a 6-4 SG against players like Draymond Green and other top power forwards.

    novak guarded the post extremely well for his height, just because his replacement will be taller you shouldn't necessarily assume he'll be more effective.

    jbspartan4life

  • BH Spartan said...

    UM was good last year because they played some really good defense and didn't turn the ball over. They are losing their two of their three best defenders and two reliable ball handlers and good passers. They'll need their new guys to buy in defensively and need them to value the ball and make plays. I don't see them being much better next year. Top-25 team? For sure. FF contender? No way. Still too many holes.

    Honest assessment, they will be a top 25 team, but no way will they be capable of making a run in the tourney nor compete for the B1G title.

    Johnny2x2x

  • My top-notch unquestionable statistical analysis indicates Michigan is losing 4 (made) 3 point FGs/game (with the loss of Smot, Stu, and FunnyFace).

    Which means Burke may have to make more 3's (not sure if you want your PG doing too much of that), or Hardaway will have to make more 3's (this isn't good...he takes the most shots...but, is the worst shooter), or Robinson will have to make some 3's. This is a recipe for disaster.

    NigelUno

  • Any shot at depth left the building and don't care whose team and what player, when you see public soap opera's like the one Burke is in, coming back doesn't have many happy endings.

    Now saying you hope Horford's foot heals AND he progresses plus 4 freshmen plus Hardeway who flat out ran out of gas just like Novak did.

    Big M just forgets how gassed Burke looked in his last 2 games
    OSU 1-11 0-7 /3pt 8 TO's 5 points in 30 minutes
    Ohio 5-15 2-9/3 pt 2 TO 16 points in 40 minutes

    GRR Spartan

  • boozhoo said...

    to be fair, GRIII is apparently a very good 3 point shooter already...but then so was Russell Byrd. so who knows. But the only word I keep hearing to describe McGary's shot is "brick" - and that is going to hurt them a ton. Smot, Novak, and Douglass were all 3 point threats....whether they scored a lot or not is irrelevant. Beilien's entire system is built upon having 4-5 shooters on the floor at all times. Last year the one guy that wasn't who played a lot was Morgan...but what are they going to do without Novak and Douglass to take up that space and spread the D? I will guarantee that Burke takes a step back this year, because his talents benefited greatly from how those guys who are now all gone could spread the floor. That's how he got all of those assists - driving and dishing. Unless Horford, GRIII, and Stauskus can all come in and immediately start hitting 35+% from 3, then they are going to struggle mightily. and it's not like they were scoring 80 points a game as it was.

    A very good three point shooter already? How can anyone know that? If you're referring to high school, fine. But those stats go out the window when you are now suiting up against like-athletes and B10 gameplans. Just ask Chris Allen and Russell Byrd.

    In college, at very good three point shooter should be hitting 40% of his attempts. I haven't read or seen anything from GRIII to suggest he can do anything near that. I see him more like Tim Hardaway, and he is a career 33% shooter.

    GRIII is a long, rangy athlete that shoots okay from outside, but needs improved skill to become a consistent offensive player. If UM can get 33% three point shooting out of him, I think they should be ecstatic. Next year, I expect him to be a garbage man player, scoring in transition, on a few spot ups and put backs.

    signature image

    Gus Chiggins

  • Good luck Burke. For those concerned about his classes... Finals should be around corner. Incompletes???

    This post was edited by Ron_in_ATL on 4/9/2012 at 1:51 PM

    Ron_in_ATL

  • jbspartan4life said...

    lol they have completely different games, smotz was 6'9" and shot 44% from 3 point range, horford has no jumper to speak of.

    smot would have started easily at the 4

    beilein loves bigs that can stretch the court, he no longer has one.

    Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.

    Ehrball

  • Gus Chiggins said...

    A very good three point shooter already? How can anyone know that? If you're referring to high school, fine. But those stats go out the window when you are now suiting up against like-athletes and B10 gameplans. Just ask Chris Allen and Russell Byrd.

    No kidding. They aren't going to be jacking three's against poor athletes who are 4 inches shorter in the B1G. You'll be covered tight with athletes who have speed and can jump out of the gym. It's a whole new ballgame.

    Loose Stools

  • jbspartan4life said...

    novak guarded the post extremely well for his height, just because his replacement will be taller you shouldn't necessarily assume he'll be more effective.

    This is what happens when your basketball program is dormant for two decades (see Wisconsin a decade ago). The fan base lacks the proper perspective to understand the game and the conference. When you add in an exceptionally deluded media market, you get inane comments like this from fans.

    Big M's comments in this thread just demonstrate a complete lack of basketball knowledge. As you said, Novak may have lacked height, but his defensive contributions--like his offensive contributions--are being completely undervalued. Even though the kid is grating as hell, his effort, strength, toughness and quickness made him UM's best defender. In fact, by taking charges, he did more to protect the rim than Morgan, who is much taller.

    The funny thing is, Novak was actually much worse defending the perimeter where he actually had a size advantage. Just go rewatch the Purdue game on Senior night; Terone Johnson completely abused him by dragging him out on the perimeter and going off the dribble.

    signature image

    Gus Chiggins

  • Ehrball said...

    Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.

    Highlight videos? Really? Are those the guys he will be playing against next season?

    Anyone. Anyplace. Anytime.

    rookmsu

  • Ehrball said...

    Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.

    Only at Michigan is two 3pt attempts per game considered a small sample.

    http://www.silentlapse.com

    Thrillho

  • Erwin Fletcher said...

    You just don't respect contrary opinions.

    Sure thing nucky.

    "Losing Benenoch is a mortal blow from which this program can't recover"-T-Pain

    Rogue Leader

  • rookmsu said...

    Highlight videos? Really? Are those the guys he will be playing against next season?

    One could easily put together Nix highlights on the break, leading the break, getting in the passing lane and a steal for a dunk.......at the college level, enough for highlight videos.

    Yet, nobody with any sense would even consider him a threat in any of those departments.

    Larry Kazamias

  • Ehrball said...

    Sure, Smotrycz shot 44% from 3, but the volume wasn't there to qualify that as a stat that defined the Michigan team. He probably averaged what? about 2 three point attempts per game? It's like you guys and Thornton. He shot really well from three all year, but the gameplan wasn't to have him launch shots all the time. While McGary doesn't have a 3 point shot, I would say he is very good at stretching the court. About 60% of his highlight videos consist of his transition game, and he's pretty good at slashing to the hole.

    Again, UM fan demonstrating he doesn't understand basketball. It isn't just the production that should be evaluated; it is the threat that is equally important. The fact that Novak and Smotrycz could shoot the three while playing the four or five really affected the way teams could defend UM. In the pick-and-roll, defenders were drawn further from the basket opening the paint for Burke this year and Morris last year. And when you put Novak and Smotrycz in the pick-and-pop, the defense had to respect the pop player, forcing defenses to X-Out, Switch, Feather, etc. This also helped draw defenders away from the basket opening driving lanes.

    See, it didn't matter whether he ht five threes or one three. It matters that he could hit threes. If you really want to evaluate their value, you also have to look at Morgan's and Burke's production, as they benefited the most from the outside shooting threats.

    signature image

    Gus Chiggins