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Just want to post this in a new thread, so that we can find it later........
Chicken Little Jr. (Compound):
"Timing is the most difficult thing to predict. I don't claim to be a genius....I only claim not to be a moron ignorant of history burying my head in the sand. I don't know when this is going to happen. I only know that if you read monetary history any time a country does the things we have been doing (parabolic spending, monetizing debt, unbacked currency, that it ends in chaos every time. But since it seems to make you happy to pin me down to an exact date I would say there is a very high likelihood of this happening before Obama leaves office and almost 100% within the next 7 years (i.e. before the end of this decade). But unfortunately, I really think we are not that far off. The whole world is awash in debt, Europe is falling apart, and we are a mess too.
As far as "defining collapse" I'll say a devaluation of at least 50% in less than 12 months or 70% in less than 36 months. When you're paying $8, $15, $20 for a gallon of gasoline, you will know it's here. Also, if the US dollar is replaced as the worlds reserve currency within that time frame, then I am clearly correct as well since that would result in a huge loss of purchasing power for the average American."
This post was edited by TrapperGus 12 months ago
Lurking on tRCMB since 1996
If the U.S. dollar is replaced as the reserve currency, then I think he's being conservative in his estimates of devaluation.
I liked Bill Clinton very much. Other than the AWB, he was A-OK in my book.
Shhh....don't give away my secrets
You're a little obsessed with me, but I don't mind. I don't mind being on the record.
China has already entered several swap agreements with other countries to trade in something other than US dollars.. I don't think they are going to want to live the rest of their years producing actual goods with their time and labor just so we can print up money and take what they produce, but we'll see.
This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by TrapperGus 12 months ago
I'll file this under "IF", right behind "IF my Aunt had a dick, she'd be my Uncle."
Maybe you're not paying attention to the news coming out of China lately...
This post was edited by VladtImpaler205 13 months ago
Trapper, I hate to break it to you, but your chart compares the value of the US dollar to other declining currencies (like the Euro for example). It's hardly a true measure of US dollar strength (or weakness as the case may be)
Would you prefer it compared to Caribbean dollar?
What does he mean by parabolic spending? Does he mean spending is going to go up and then down? Maybe he was searching for exponential spending? In any case, spending has increased 8.6% in the last 4 years during a recesssion, making this one of the most fiscally conservative periods ini American History spending wise.
Do some people just enjoy being totally wrong about literally everything? Devaluation of at least 50% in 12 months??? Where are the indicators suggesting that anything like that is even remotely possible? The economy is growing and producing jobs, the deficit is shrinking and all signs are pointing to the recovery growing in strength in the near future. In the lst couple year's we've cut $3.5 Trillion in spending over the next 10 years and increased revenues $650 Billion. Couple that with an economy that is getting stronger and the debt situation is improving dramatically as we speak.
This post was edited by Johnny2x2x 13 months ago
The chart shows monetary policy isn't driving up Import prices. That coupled with the current years-long stretch of LOW USofA inflation points to the absurdity of your beck-pocalype fantasy world.
No doubt the Fed's exit strategy w/b incredibly challenging, but your warped interpretation of the current situation is just ridiculous.
$8, $15, $20? 8-20 is a hell of a spread.
"U.S. retains vast assets, including technically recoverable oil and gas reserves estimated by the Institute for Energy Research at $128 trillion."
$20/gal right on the horizon. Wouldn't that mean $40/gal in Europe? If so, there is going to be some serious electric cars coming out of Germany!
Representative Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, declared this month that the U.S. national debt “is hurting our economy today.” It’s an idea embraced by almost every Republican and even some Democrats.
In "modern" America, if you say it enough times, it becomes true.
The unfortunate results are devastating. Iraq immediately comes to mind.
It's laughable really, until the last sentence you typed. Idiocy and paranoia have consequences and sometimes they are very dire. Too many Americans lack the critical thinking skills necessary to detect the piles of bullshit they are swimming in.
It's all fun and games until we invade a country for no real reason and it results in the loss of 180,000 lives including 4000 American ones, as well as several $trillions of our treasure wasted because the bulk of AMericans bought the line of BS hook line and sinker 10 years ago. This shit isn't funny anymore.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Johnny2x2x 13 months ago
Unfortunately the mechanisms for getting the facts to people - IE - print - are overridden by television and media controlled by the few.
Why does your Aunt have a dick?
Well, I'm sure no matter what happens you guys will deny it. But I think it makes the most sense to judge it by gold....then probably by oil......I don't really care. I mean, the bottom line is if gas prices are $8 or $12 a gallon then I'm right. If the dollar is no longer reserve currency, then I'm right. If you guys start asking me if it's too late to buy gold, then I'm right. I think we will know.
It's sad how you guys think you are so brilliant and everyone else is a moron just because they see significant economic problems on the horizon (which they are basing on looking at economics and history). It's easier to think you are brilliant based on such a subjective measure than a more objective one, isn't it?
If you knew anything about economics you could think more critically about this instead of just mindlessly linking a bloomberg article pointing out that a bunch of other mindless Keynesian economists think everything is peachy.
The primary problem with their outlook (in my opinion)....again, nobody can know for sure since as Mises pointed out, we can not predict human action, but the primary problem is that they don't consider how things might change if interest rates were not so low. I suppose if you want to live in fantasy world and assume that we will always have super low interest rates because we are America, USA, USA, USA, then maybe you can see some hope. But interest rates are unlikely to stay low forever and when they rise, that's when we are likely to really see problems.
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