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There's a word for your kind . . . . obstreperous. Keep it up.
Numbers are manipulated with political intentions and that is what you are trying to explain.
It's a shame we had to spend five trillion dollars in three years and what we have left is this lame economy with no hope for it turning around anytime soon.
If that five trillion was given to each and every citizen in this country would equal 17000 per man, woman, and child. You can't tell me the economy is improving. Numbers don't lie. Lawyers and politicians do every day for a living.
When He speaks I listen.
We've got depth. We've got numbers.
You are exaggerating a little here...
You aren't paying 10X in inflation adjusted numbers, roads and bridges by and large are not crumbling, and certainly not beneath our feet, no one "had" to fight in a war, they chose to....
So lay off it a little and address the problems in the real sense... college tuition has risen at a faster pace than inflation, social security is at risk, infrastructure could be improved, and out military while needing to be strong, could be limited.....
Our country has faced things far worse than this... We have the highest standard of living we have ever had, kids have more than they ever had..... get off the idea that you are somehow worse off than people from 30 years ago, you are not..
Is your response to wallow in your imagined desperation, or are you going to do something about it?
I'm just going to disagree about lawyers as liars. Actually, attorneys are, as a profession, much more honest, as a whole, than in any other walk of life. It doesn't necessarily attract more innately honest people. I believe it is on account of the consequences for lying, which will bring you stiff sanctions to pay in dollars if you do it in litigation and a trip to the attorney grievance commission, as well, not to mention ill repute in the community, and perhaps even with only one offense, disbarment. Every walk of life has its liars, but as a whole, attorneys have fewer.
What people think when they accuse lawyers, as a profession, of being liars is that that, by definition, two or more sides of every story are offered to justify or explain conduct by the client. On the surface of things, it seems to suggest one side is lying. But, the search for the truth is no better served than when lawyers, representing their clients, put forth arguments that put the best face on the client's position---that's not lying.
The adversary system is not perfect, but it's far, far better than anything else for resolving disputes. But, in that adversarial system, a false, misleading, or fraudulent position seldom carries the day and the liar, the misleader, or the fraud is more often than not discovered to be such and is punished by the verdict of the trier of fact.
That's far more than you can say about politicians, whose self-interest in re-election or belief in a political goal, causes them, far more than any other walk of life, to make the ends justify the means and, therefore, lie, obfuscate, and defame every day without recourse or consequence of any kind, save the ballot box. As for the latter, we've almost come to the point in which we know each candidate is lying, but we vote for "our liar" and the truth teller, if there happens to be one, is cast as "unelectable."
For what it's worth, I really enjoyed the discussion in this thread---all the twists and turns.
You guys have done us all a fabulous service by taking the time to thresh out the numbers on unemployment. My own view is that the number is a fraud and it's laughable, really, that the market ate it up yesterday. But this is clearly a situation in which the other side of the argument helped shed light---rather than blur---a complicated statistic that we hear regularly, but really don't understand as well as we should.
Thank you all for the input.
Of course you're right, CS---particularly about the roads, which has been one of the more responsible acts of government in their building and maintenance---which I understand isn't saying a hell of a lot, but there is money available to keep them functional with only the rare bridge collapse. But 007Spartan makes an excellent point in his nicely worded screed and I think it's directed toward the irresponsible attitude of the, yes, Baby Boom Generation toward public affairs that was driven by guilt, fantasy, and utopia.
The guilty, the fantastic, and the Utopians should not be able to spend public money, but it happened and, more or less, what 007Spartan has described is the legacy of this irresponsibility. Many remain in denial, but the result is too obvious for the rational to ignore any further. The best thing that could happen is for the likes of 007Spartan to take away keys to the car of gubament from these inebriated misfits now in control and pray it isn't too late to drive us all to sanity.
If by "Baby Boomers," you mean all the older people who have learned to disguise their racism, and to a lesser extent their homophobia, but who still vote for politicians who pander to and service these half-buried hatreds either in speech or via policy, then I agree with you. We will be better off when they all die.
This post was edited by GreenMeany 2 years ago
"Look at this. An entire generation of Cinderellas, and there's no glass slipper coming." -- Mother in ALMOST FAMOUS
Um, I'm 34 and doing quite well, so I'm not wallowing in anything. However, I do have a conscious and a sense of responsibility. Here's what I saw under Bush, who's administration caused our problems.
1. Several large tax cuts principally benefitting the wealthy including sharp reductions in the estate tax, capital gains tax, and highest marginal tax. This coupled with a significant reduction in the effective tax rate for corporate profits has resulted in a sharp reduction in individual and corporate tax rates as a percentage of GDP. It was thought this would result in a tricked down effect, that didn't exactly happen.
2. Two wars including one completely unnecessary one resulted in thousands of deaths and trillions of costs, none of which were paid for. Items 1 and 2 had the combined effect of turning an inherited surplus into enormous deficits. BTW my brother did volunteer
To be a member of the marine reserves. He didn't necessarily expect to be stop gapped after 6 years in the service and "asked nicely" to do 2 more tours. On his fourth and last tour he was badly injured in an IED explosion and permanently injured. Might have been nice if they actually had instituted the draft so kids like my brother didn't have to 5 tours in a war zone. Then again, what the fuck do guys like Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush care.
3. The blind deregulation of the financial and insurance industries that contributed to massive inflation in the cost of health care and significant consolidation in the financial industry and massive increases in risk taking behavior. The failure to monitor or regulate the derivative market led to an unsustainable increase in the supply of mortgage debt leading to massive and, again, unsustainable inflation in the housing market resulting in an enormous real estate bubble and the utter cratering of the real estate market.
4. Decreased investment in education, especially at the state level as a percentage of gdp. As a result, we've seen large increases in tuition and as a result student debt is rising at unprecedented rates. I don't know about you, but in the face of fewer and fewer unskilled jobs that pay a living wage or offer benefits it doesn't seem like a great idea to defund education and make it more difficult for workers to attain the skills they need to become productive, economically viable members of the society.
These events resulted in the crash we saw in 2008. In short, Bush and the republicans Fucked us. Their experiment in pre-emptive invasion and full on trickle down economics was a failure on a massive scale. Thanks very much for that, but I'm oh so happy that you are paying lower taxes than at any time in over 50 years and you can feel great knowing you created this mess and your response to said mess was to tell the young and the poor to go fuck themselves. Sleep good tonight.
Well, 007Spartan, based on this discouraging post, I have to take back what i said above. The keys of gubament, my friend, do not go to you---at least for about a decade or so. Then we'll check back. You're kinda like that Ritz cracker commercial where the cheese isn't aged, i.e., mature enough, just yet.
Having said that, tell your brother, sincerely, thank you for his service to this country.
This post was edited by BillOGoods 2 years ago
Dude, do NOT waste your time arguing with BillOGoods. He lives in an alternate, right-wing universe. I'm pretty sure he thinks the Rambo films were documentaries.
At least in this thread, this is the most ignorant post by a mile. But I'll grant you, there has been some very high level thinking in this particular thread so your lengfthy miss doesn't place you at an awful depth from which there is no return. Thank goodness for that, at least. You can brush yourself off and easily take another shot at it.
Ugh, "dude," he didn't know he was arguing with me when he wrote the post. You're either clairvoyant (I think not) or a poor reader (proly).
Actually BillO had a bit of a point. While I stand by the 4 points I made in my post, the vitriol in the last paragraph probably wasn't warranted by the post and poster I was responding to.
However, I am just so disheartened by the direction of the right and their response to the financial disaster they clearly had a huge hand in creating. That said, I'm far from a lefty either. I got my BA in finance at state and also fulfilled by accounting requirements. I then got both my CPA and CFA, a master's in accounting and an MBA with a focus in international finance. I spent 10 years in commercial lending before starting my own company. I'm a firm free market capitalist. I have no problem letting the market sort itself out in just about every case and I think profit is healthy. However, I also don't feel that a small minority should be able to tip the balance of the supply and demand curve to their favor and take unearned profits by disrupting the efficiency of the market place.
I'm a big 2nd amendment guy. I own half a dozen guns including an AR 15 that I own for no reason other than its fun to blow holes in shit in the desert. The truck I use to haul my boat is sitting on 35 inch tires and gets about 5 miles to the gallon and i wouldn't have it any other way.
I have worked hard all my life and my success/money wasn't handed to me or inherited. That said I also realize that I received a great public education from a small rural high school. I went to college with the help of academic and athletic scholarship and low cost government subsidized student loans. A couple years ago my business partner and I sought and received an SBA loan. With the help of that we were able to hire 10 more people and purchase equipment and software that has helped us more than triple our revenues in the last 3 fiscal years. This past year was great for us and our profits grew. Based on our draft tax returns we're gonna pay about a 32% tax rate. I really don't have a problem with that either. I feel good knowing that I'm giving back and helping to support this country grow. I do have a problem with the fact that because of deductions and loopholes the total federal income tax on corporate profits was about 12%. Doesn't seem fair to me. Those companies should be doing a lot more. I'd say the same thing about the top 1%. Their average tax rate is less than 20% and both Gingrich and Romney are talking about slashing it even further.
In total those guys wanna cut taxes (primarily for the wealthy) by about another trillion dollars. We already have a $1.5 trillion deficit. They both rail against deficit spending, so I'm assuming they wanna balance the budget, which means they have to come up with $2.5 trillion in saving. Both have stated that they don't wanna cut the military, so that means social programs. With all the people who are unemployed, uninsured, undereducated, and living in poverty how much more can they really take before we leave them totally behind. Then we really will create a permanent underclass and longterm unemployment rates of 10%.
I'm lucky enough to be in the "One percent" group based on my income. I live a great life in this country. I also know where I came from and I have no problem paying taxes because I believe in the greatness of this country and I believe that everyone outta have the same shot to succeed that I did. I simply can not fathom people in the same financial situation as me who would look at the situation we face today and not feel the same way. I can't understand it and i hope I never do.
BTW, I also get the OP's point. Unemployment is understated in those numbers. However, the formula has been flawed for years and the formula is the same now as it was during previous administrations. While we'd love to be adding more jobs, the fact that we are adding them at all is a positive that can't be denied, especially after we shed close to 8 million jobs in Bush's last year in office and Obama's first while we were in the throws of the recession. Its great that umemployement has gone from 10.4% to over 8.3% in about 2 years, but its still tough out there and a lot of people have given up. That to me is all the more reason that this POS congress we're saddled with right now needs to get up off their asses and tackle comprehensive tax reform and create a wholistic jobs program as well as looking at other common sense approaches to both cutting costs and creating revenues.
This post was edited by 007Spartan 2 years ago
*“Mene, Mene, Tekel u-Pharsin” ~ Book of Daniel, Ch. 5 *
* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *
The writing's on the wall! The massive decline of new entrants to the civilian labor force, which is shown graphically in the chart above, directly impacts the unemployment rate, making the employment situation appear far better than it actually is. If the 9.3 million workers who have effectively dropped out of the labor force, since the end of 2008, were instead of being excluded, counted as unemployed, the real unemployment rate would be 13.5% instead of yesterday’s published rate of 8.3%. Even if only half of those who have been incontestably and wrongfully removed from the labor force were counted, the unemployment rate would be 10.9%, not 8.3%. Never before in history has there been a more blatant manipulation of official labor statistics.
Those focusing all their attention on the number of jobs created in recent months are focusing on the wrong data. Lest we forget, the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes in its definition of the word employed – “persons 16 years and over in the civilian non-institutional population who, during the reference week, did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees.” So for all we know, a huge portion of those 200K and some odd jobs, allegedly created last month, were people hired for one hour, paid with taxpayer subsidized grants or loans, and working to register democratic voters in an effort to guarantee another round of Obamanomics. You laugh!
While we do need to watch out for the above, we really need to focus on the number of persons who have been summarily deleted from the labor force over the past three years. According the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the civilian labor force declined by 802,000 over this period. And even worse, another 8,481,000 new entrants, most of whom would normally have entered the labor force, are unaccounted for. So where are they? The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009, yet 9.3 million Americans have gone missing over the past three years and one month. Thus, the question is, are they really missing, or has someone manipulated the unemployment rate in an effort to improve Obama’s chances for re-election?
The dilemma posed by a declining labor force is that as the civilian non-institutional population continues to grow by approximately 1.0% each year, millions of potential workers are forced out of the market. In other words, if there are not enough jobs for the existing workforce, then there are no jobs at all for the approximately 2 million new entrants who come into the job market each year. The devastating result is that a smaller proportion of the populace is working today, to support a much larger cluster of retirees, the unemployed, and those who are otherwise unaccounted for.
As you can see in the table above, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Table A-1, not seasonally adjusted), the labor force grew from 142,583,000 at the end of the year 2000, to 154,287,000 by the end of 2008, for an increase of 11,704,000 workers over the eight-year period immediately preceding Obama. As such, the labor force was expanding by an average of 1,463,000 new entrants per year, for the eight years prior to 2009.
But from the beginning of 2009 through the end of 2011, the labor force declined from 154,287,000 to 153,617,000. Thus, after three consecutive years of Obamanomics, the labor force declined by a total of 670,000, for an average loss of 223,333 workers per year. The table has been extended through January of 2012, and as you can see, the labor force continued to decline by another 132,000 in January of 2012, as the number of workers fell from 153,617,000 to 153,485,000.
So it may be said that Obamanomics has caused the labor force, which should be expanding each year by a multiple of the increase in civilian non-institutional population, to instead be slashed by a total of 802,000 workers in just 37 month’s. This would be bad enough in and of itself; however if we are to believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from a macro view, the real employment situation is far worse.
When Obama’s declining labor force is compared with the growth of the civilian non-institutional population, also shown in the table above, we can see that a total of 9.3 million Americans have effectively been removed from the labor force during the last three years and one month (add together the amounts highlighted in the lower right-hand corner). This is the difference between periodic changes in the civilian non-institutional population (the 3rd column from the left), minus periodic changes in the labor force (the 2nd column from the right). It represents the periodic increase in the civilian working age population, which has been unfortunately added to the ranks of those counted as not in the labor force. And as we pointed out previously, a total of 6.5 million workers were removed in the three year period ending with 2011.
To be specific:
In 2009, the civilian non-institutional population grew by 2,013,000, yet the labor force declined by 145,000, resulting in an increase of 2,158,000 persons counted as not part of the labor force. In other words, 2.1 million workers went missing in action (MIA).
In 2010, the civilian non-institutional population grew by 2,029,000, yet the labor force continued to decline by another 253,000, resulting in an additional 2,282,000 counted as not in the labor force. That’s another 2.3 million MIA’s.
Then in 2011, the civilian non-institutional population again grew, this time by 1,788,000, yet the labor force declined by another 272,000, resulting in 2,060,000 more persons counted as not part of the labor force. This resulted in another 2.1 million MIA’s.
To top things off, in the first month of 2012, the civilian non-institutional population grew by an additional 2,651,000, yet the labor force further declined by 132,000, resulting in an additional 2,783,000 persons counted as not part of the labor force. Although January data is, as always, affected by changes in population controls, nevertheless it is what it is. Thus another 2.8 million Americans went MIA.
In effect, there have been no new entrants to the labor force in the past three years and one month, as 802,000 existing workers have dropped out of the workforce, and all 8,481,000 potential new entrants have fallen by the wayside. In all, that’s a total of 9.3 million workers who have effectively been pushed out of the labor force. For those paying attention, that’s a total of 9.3 million persons who are not included in yesterday’s official unemployment calculation.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the official unemployment rate through January 2012 is 8.3%, as calculated in the table below, where:
[ (A) Total Unemployed / (B) Labor Force = (C) Unemployment Rate ]
However, if we were to add back the 9,283,000 workers who have effectively dropped out of the labor force, during Obama’s reign of misery, the real unemployment rate would be 13.5%, as calculated in the following table.
Even if only half of those who have been incontestably and wrongfully removed from the labor force were counted, the unemployment rate would be 10.9%, not 8.3%. Eventually those 9.3 million working age Americans will start looking for work, and if upon entering the labor force, they are unable to find gainful employment, the unemployment rate should begin to rise towards its true rate, which would be between 10.9% and 13.5%, as stated.
Conclusion: In going all the way back to the year 1929, besides the years 2009, 2010, 2011, and potentially 2012, the only other years that the United States has ever suffered annual declines in its civilian labor force were 1943, 1944, 1945, and 1951. And as far as the 6.5 million who dropped out of the labor force entirely, over the past three years (not including 2012), that represents the worst consecutive 36 month period in United States history, also dating back to 1929. Since we are not presently engaged in a World War, with millions being drafted out of the civilian workforce, and with millions being killed in action, isn't this proof positive that the unemployment rate is being manipulated?
Based upon the facts, either the Great Recession never really ended, or the unemployment rate has been manipulated. I am 99.9% certain that the Obama Administration is playing with unemployment.
Prerequisites: Manipulation 101: The Real Unemployment Rate
Related: Unemployment Actually Rose in January, Media Screams “Unemployment Rate Declines!” – Is INCREASING Unemployment Something To Brag About?
Question authority. Power to the people
Simple question. How can you call it Obamanomics when republicans have had control of congress and thus heavy sway over the budget for half of his term? What specifically do you have issue with that he has done?
BTW, I actually read that article or whatever that you re-posted (probably after receiving it in an email) and the numbers are really full of shite. Many of the assumptions are faulty. Such as the idea that we added 2.6 million people to the labor force in the month of January alone. Some of the basic premises make sense, but the overall conclusions are enormously inflated. Why for example are we assuming that over 2 million people should have entered the workforce every year for the last 3 plus, when an average of only 1.4+ million entered it during the Bush administration? Why are we assuming that everyone of the people Included in the growth numbers should be included in the workforce. Shouldn't the author have actually looked at the demographics of the census instead of making wild ass guesses based on enormous assumptions? Couldn't some of that population growth be comprised of children and/or students who should not be included in the workforce. Couldn't some of the reduction be attributed to an aging population base or those that have taken early retirement? Not saying that the unemployment rate isn't understated, it is, but then again it has been for years. I wouldn't look to this cat, whoever he is, to sort it all out though.
Its a bit scary that people read articles like this that float around the internet and buy it hook line and sinker without even applying the tiniest bit of reason.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by 007Spartan 2 years ago
Stopped reading at mistake of Reps. controlling Congress for half of Barry's term. For anyone new to the calendar and presidential terms, Barry has been in office three years and a month, two years of which were controlled by Democrats.
For the record, employment data for the new Starbucks in Wells Hall has been quite strong.
So how long have the Democrats had a veto proof majority in Congress when you include Democrat in name only Ben Nelson in the Obama years?
That would be never. Democrats held 56 seats after the 2008 elections.
So Green Note do you know how the US Legislative branch works or just believe all the tripe you read on the internet?
Market timing advice fail! Since your original post the S&P is up around 7%. Anyone who took your advice has lost in the neighborhood of an entire years worth of equity risk premium. They would also be locked out of the market and facing the conundrum of whether to jump back in now and guarantee the 7% loss or wait and hope the market comes back to them knowing that every day it advances their potential losses grow.
Tony Clifton said... (original post)When the euphoria of the 8.3% unemployment subsides, the market should reverse. Somehow lost in this number is the fact 1.2 million people left the workforce in January alone so they aren't being counted in the number. Good opportunity to take gains.
Edit: adding link from Bureau of Labor and Statistics
Tony Clifton said... (original post)
When the euphoria of the 8.3% unemployment subsides, the market should reverse. Somehow lost in this number is the fact 1.2 million people left the workforce in January alone so they aren't being counted in the number. Good opportunity to take gains.
Edit: adding link from Bureau of Labor and Statistics
A really poor piece of advise revisited...
Lurking on tRCMB since 1996
Tony Schtick was the one of the same folks predicting doom and gloom in '08 and several times after.
Wonder if he was one of the right guys who thought 12,000 was a flash in the pan too?
I agree with those looking at medical device companies. Even with the new taxes imposed, the numbers of patients for orthopedic implants and electronic implants is exploding largely due to demographics. The healthcare system is already making more of the implant procedures less costly (out patient procedures, etc) and the Affordable Care Act will bring on new patients.
funk said... (original post)It sucks to say, but the truth is we'll be much better off once the boomers die. Worst generation.
funk said... (original post)
It sucks to say, but the truth is we'll be much better off once the boomers die. Worst generation.
Yeah, we created spoiled brat kids like you. How terrible of us.
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