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VladtImpaler20535
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ChicagoMark1 said...
Debt accumulation has accelerated significantly in the last 4 yrs. and will continue over the next 4+. US tax revenues are stagnant to declining and spending is being increased to satisfy requirements for social programs. Once these expenses are considered the story gets much worse. We either address this problem now or the market will later.
The debt crisis around the world is speeding up. Europe is struggling with a systemic debt problem (actually it is a solvency issue) Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 220% and in 2012 will run a deficit that is roughly 50% of their annual spending. I'm looking for even more uncertainty in 2012.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by VladtImpaler20535 on 12/28/2011 at 12:52 PM
VladtImpaler20535
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Vlad-t-Impaler said...
So what's the end game CM?? How is this all going to come to a head? And then what happens?
Rather than forecasting how much of the sky is going to fall and how soon it will fall, how about laying it on the line and telling us what you think will happen when the sky falls on everyone??
We have the best government money can buy. -- Mark Twain
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Vlad-t-Impaler said...
So what's the end game CM?? How is this all going to come to a head? And then what happens?
Rather than forecasting how much of the sky is going to fall and how soon it will fall, how about laying it on the line and telling us what you think will happen when the sky falls on everyone?? Who will be left standing on top of that pile of ash?
Stop teasing us, alright?!?
TravelinMan
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ChicagoMark1 said...
I have no crystal ball, but I can tell you what I think will happen and how i have prepared.
I think the Western industrialized world will address the debt problem by debasing their currencies. You have already seen this here in the US with QE1 (Fed buying MBS and GSE debt) and QE2 (Fed buying Treasury debt) and in the EU with the ECB buying sovereign government debt of the PIIGS. I expect this approach of central bank government debt purchases to accelerate quickly in 2012 and eventually lead to some sort of hyper-inflation or economic collapse over the next couple of years. The only alternative would be serious austerity measures, which would certainly lead to a much worse depression, or debt default, which would result in the same.
Personally, I see no way out. We are past the point of no return. Economic collapse is assured. Though the $USD might hold up relative to other currencies in the short run, it is still only the best looking horse at the glue factory. As protection or survival I look to several things: Precious metals, staying strong and healthy so I won't need to access the medical system, being very flexible and adaptive to change and psychologically preparing for very, very difficult times.
What to look for? For me I like to watch the price of oil and gold. Once you start to see week over week or month over month increases in price, you know time is growing short. When oil prices are high, economies slow. You might also look for continued war, more laws of "control" like the Patriot Act and the NDAA, and more OWS movements, but much more aggressive as things turn from bad to worse.
There is an old Chinese proverb: "May you live in interesting times". Lucky us...we do...and will.
This post was edited by VladtImpaler20535 on 12/28/2011 at 2:08 PM
VladtImpaler20535
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TrapperGus
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Vlad-t-Impaler said...
Wow, you're even crazier than I thought. "No way out"...."past the point of no return"....
Man, were's Jim Jones when you need him?? We need to end our suffering before things get really ugly out there.
This post was edited by ChicagoMark1 on 12/28/2011 at 7:35 PM
We have the best government money can buy. -- Mark Twain
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ChicagoMark1 said...
OK...there is one way out. We need to find an energy source that has an EROEI (energy return on energy invested) that is higher than conventional oil. I'm not counting on that. Otherwise, yes, there is no way out of this debt crisis other than a collapse and a reset. Moreover, it will not be solved (only made much worse) by adding even more debt at an increased rate.
Japan's stock market peaked in 1990 and 21 years later it is still 67% off its high. They were capable of managing their decline because they were a huge exporting country who's citizens saved 30+% of their income and bought gov. bonds. We run a huge trade deficit and 80+% of our citizens save nothing. We will not follow Japan's path.
This post was edited by VladtImpaler20535 on 12/29/2011 at 7:37 AM
VladtImpaler20535
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Vlad-t-Impaler said...
It'll be ok CM. We're all going to be ok. Japan was/is a huge exporting country, and we're a huge economy. We have some things going for us too.
Try to get some sleep this holiday season. Lack of sleep causes a person to think and act irrationally.
TravelinMan
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Spartytruth
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Merry Christmas - US Debt to GDP Passes 100%